Final push for the bulls? or just a reversal?
Updated
Welcome to my market daily update:
• Daily: I don’t like how the daily RSI isn’t resting, many of you know how I love the OBV indicator, it is a very hard tool to expert it and I have my own way to confirm with it if we are in a bull run or not (Among other confirmations to support it which you must have), and as you can see in the daily chart:
most of the green arrows which confirming the last 2 bull runs for me (After confirming these with other aspects as well), are actually working out but with 2 exceptions (Yellow marks) due to RSI (Every time we have RSI overbought, it has a sudden pull out to give oscillators time to rest before the next move):
1. RSI didn’t rest, but it was during a confirmed strong bull run – it means buyers can easily continue buying and suppressing higher “over bought” areas, usually this break TA with over excitement, this
should be a warning sign as well that we are getting to the peak if this happens during a parabolic bull run.
2. RSI didn’t rest, but it was during a confirmed bear run – it means that there is a lot of activity from the bulls and that the speculations and excitement are too high because of an incoming event.
- This is just my own speculation as I’ve seen it in the past as well, this doesn’t mean that this is what will happen, because in overall the midterm market is extremely bullish which might lead to breaking
the big-term bearish market and start the next bull run (We ju, I personally don’t trade against the bigger picture trend unless I confirm that it is changed, so I prefer to stay bearish.
- But to our community we prefer the smarter way which is stay bullish trades as we are less focused on mid-term reversals, we prefer to focus on the strong mid-term trend as this gives the best results
and not counting on speculations if the overall market trend is changing or not.
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• Weekly: 5 more days for halving, I expect next weekly to decide if to break this, we never ever had more then 8 weekly green candles, so are we getting ready for a final push this 8th week or are we going to heavily reject it? if we aren’t going to break above 9335 until weekend then I expect that we won’t see a 9th green candle and expect us to correct to at-least 8,300 because our next move, breaking below it will bring us to 7575, and going below it I suspect will continue the bearish channel which we’ve been riding for almost a whole year already since 14k, and if this happens then the halving effects will easily start the bull run in next 5-7 months like I keep repeating myself… I wish for the bulls to push harder and finish it up, but as they are exhausted and as we are right under the top channel, I won’t be surprised.
- Do notice that we are still inside the weekly cloud as well, which acts as a very heavy resistance for us
- And also notice that our weekly PA candle forming a hanging man candle – it means we might have ended our run as well as when it appears at peak of bullish move then reversal is the logical next move
• As I posted on my TG:
- “Im heavily shorted the market since 9300 on my trading portfolio (big bet), also I sold a lot of my long term portfolio assets, I really think this was the top on Crypto, if Im wrong I dont lose much as per
to my portfolio management and all I will feel is just missed out move, but if Im right this is going to be a very big jump for me. I will say this, we still decided to go long for our community as we prefer to
follow the midterm trend, but as I have been saying since I came back, just notice that the big term mood since 14k is still bearish, and smallterm vibe is showing a strong weakness from many aspects, so
Im staying with my risky bet..” – so I don’t mind if we fall 😉, as I usually trade for the bigger moves. But priority for our group is of-course bullish.
• Daily: I don’t like how the daily RSI isn’t resting, many of you know how I love the OBV indicator, it is a very hard tool to expert it and I have my own way to confirm with it if we are in a bull run or not (Among other confirmations to support it which you must have), and as you can see in the daily chart:
most of the green arrows which confirming the last 2 bull runs for me (After confirming these with other aspects as well), are actually working out but with 2 exceptions (Yellow marks) due to RSI (Every time we have RSI overbought, it has a sudden pull out to give oscillators time to rest before the next move):
1. RSI didn’t rest, but it was during a confirmed strong bull run – it means buyers can easily continue buying and suppressing higher “over bought” areas, usually this break TA with over excitement, this
should be a warning sign as well that we are getting to the peak if this happens during a parabolic bull run.
2. RSI didn’t rest, but it was during a confirmed bear run – it means that there is a lot of activity from the bulls and that the speculations and excitement are too high because of an incoming event.
- This is just my own speculation as I’ve seen it in the past as well, this doesn’t mean that this is what will happen, because in overall the midterm market is extremely bullish which might lead to breaking
the big-term bearish market and start the next bull run (We ju, I personally don’t trade against the bigger picture trend unless I confirm that it is changed, so I prefer to stay bearish.
- But to our community we prefer the smarter way which is stay bullish trades as we are less focused on mid-term reversals, we prefer to focus on the strong mid-term trend as this gives the best results
and not counting on speculations if the overall market trend is changing or not.
______________________________________________________________________
• Weekly: 5 more days for halving, I expect next weekly to decide if to break this, we never ever had more then 8 weekly green candles, so are we getting ready for a final push this 8th week or are we going to heavily reject it? if we aren’t going to break above 9335 until weekend then I expect that we won’t see a 9th green candle and expect us to correct to at-least 8,300 because our next move, breaking below it will bring us to 7575, and going below it I suspect will continue the bearish channel which we’ve been riding for almost a whole year already since 14k, and if this happens then the halving effects will easily start the bull run in next 5-7 months like I keep repeating myself… I wish for the bulls to push harder and finish it up, but as they are exhausted and as we are right under the top channel, I won’t be surprised.
- Do notice that we are still inside the weekly cloud as well, which acts as a very heavy resistance for us
- And also notice that our weekly PA candle forming a hanging man candle – it means we might have ended our run as well as when it appears at peak of bullish move then reversal is the logical next move
• As I posted on my TG:
- “Im heavily shorted the market since 9300 on my trading portfolio (big bet), also I sold a lot of my long term portfolio assets, I really think this was the top on Crypto, if Im wrong I dont lose much as per
to my portfolio management and all I will feel is just missed out move, but if Im right this is going to be a very big jump for me. I will say this, we still decided to go long for our community as we prefer to
follow the midterm trend, but as I have been saying since I came back, just notice that the big term mood since 14k is still bearish, and smallterm vibe is showing a strong weakness from many aspects, so
Im staying with my risky bet..” – so I don’t mind if we fall 😉, as I usually trade for the bigger moves. But priority for our group is of-course bullish.
Note
• Hope you are getting a lot of value from my updates, cheers <3****************************************************
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Cheers, love <3 Hedgehog King!
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