Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market turns more neutral and bulls should not let it drop below 63000 again.
Quote from last week:
comment: 64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market.
current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls next target is 67000 and then 68000 where we could hit the bear trend line from the ath. They are in control of the market and as long as they stay above the bull trend line, that remains so. As of now, I don’t have any reason to expect bulls to be strong enough to break that bear trend line on the upcoming 6th try. This rally is far weaker than previous ones. That does not mean it can not happen. It’s just not likely.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: I don’t know if bears want to fight for 66000 that much when they have an obvious big resistance at 68000. The last 2 weeks they did not do much in general, so don’t expect them to start now all of a sudden. Below 63000 they have more arguments but as of now, nothing.
Invalidation is above 67000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 63400 and now we are at 65800. Ok outlook.
short term: Bullish for 67000 or 68000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added the current bull wedge.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market turns more neutral and bulls should not let it drop below 63000 again.
Quote from last week:
comment:Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern.
comment: 64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market.
current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls next target is 67000 and then 68000 where we could hit the bear trend line from the ath. They are in control of the market and as long as they stay above the bull trend line, that remains so. As of now, I don’t have any reason to expect bulls to be strong enough to break that bear trend line on the upcoming 6th try. This rally is far weaker than previous ones. That does not mean it can not happen. It’s just not likely.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: I don’t know if bears want to fight for 66000 that much when they have an obvious big resistance at 68000. The last 2 weeks they did not do much in general, so don’t expect them to start now all of a sudden. Below 63000 they have more arguments but as of now, nothing.
Invalidation is above 67000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 63400 and now we are at 65800. Ok outlook.
short term: Bullish for 67000 or 68000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added the current bull wedge.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.