Price formed what looks like either triangle or pennant. With top of it being held by strong resistance of 200 daily MA.
Either way extremely bearish set up.
If this is symmetrical triangle then price target would be about $22K - height of triangle (
12K) subtracted from expected breakout level ($34K). But this set up is very short timeframe to typically be qualified as a triangle.
If this it’s a pennant, then outcome should be even more bearish. Technically pole of this pennant formed from
59K to $30K, 
29K in height. It sounds crazy but target price should be $34K (expected breakout) less 29K (height of the pole), so 
4K??? What? This sounds crazy considering how much hype Bitcoin generated in last year.
I want to address my prior Bitcoin forecasts here.
Originally I was expecting top formation to breakdown and reasonably reach $43K, bounce back to
52K, then head to $30K. Instead price took an elevator down right away to $30K. Shouldn’t be that surprising since charts go down faster than up, but it’s hard to call that direct huge move before it happens, because it sounds a bit crazy at that time.
This brings me to current situation. Is it reasonable to call a move to4K? Idk, but it’s definitely a possibility that shouldn’t be written off. I’d assume it would involve very negative headlines in media outlets related to China issues, energy sources to run BTC, etc.
How this set up could be invalidated? If price breaks top resistance of the triangle (top yellow line on the cart), then this analysis should be scratched.
Above analysis are documentation of my thoughts and ideas for my own use, and shouldn’t be taken as an advise of any kind.
Either way extremely bearish set up.
If this is symmetrical triangle then price target would be about $22K - height of triangle (
12K) subtracted from expected breakout level ($34K). But this set up is very short timeframe to typically be qualified as a triangle. If this it’s a pennant, then outcome should be even more bearish. Technically pole of this pennant formed from
59K to $30K, 29K in height. It sounds crazy but target price should be $34K (expected breakout) less 29K (height of the pole), so 4K??? What? This sounds crazy considering how much hype Bitcoin generated in last year. I want to address my prior Bitcoin forecasts here.
Originally I was expecting top formation to breakdown and reasonably reach $43K, bounce back to
52K, then head to $30K. Instead price took an elevator down right away to $30K. Shouldn’t be that surprising since charts go down faster than up, but it’s hard to call that direct huge move before it happens, because it sounds a bit crazy at that time. This brings me to current situation. Is it reasonable to call a move to
4K? Idk, but it’s definitely a possibility that shouldn’t be written off. I’d assume it would involve very negative headlines in media outlets related to China issues, energy sources to run BTC, etc. How this set up could be invalidated? If price breaks top resistance of the triangle (top yellow line on the cart), then this analysis should be scratched.
Above analysis are documentation of my thoughts and ideas for my own use, and shouldn’t be taken as an advise of any kind.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.