Bitcoin Support Holding, but can it continue to rally?

Updated

Daily Overview
As mentioned in my last idea, I was looking for a bounce off of support. We held, but there are a few things to pay attention to. (This is not an exciting analysis FYI) :)

Sell pressure on the C.M.F. remained very high at support. It is currently subsiding, but the last few time we touched trend support we had stronger buy pressure. This is concerning to me due to the fact that price action is higher than prior touches.

On Balance Volume continues to fall. As seen on the second O.B.V. chart, prior touches of trend support had a spike on the O.B.V. That is yet to be seen - perhaps we will see the spike after another touch of support. Let’s move to smaller time frames to examine.

Note: On the daily you can also see the Tenkan-Sen crossed the Kijun-Sen creating a Bearish T.K. Cross as mentioned and predicted in my prior ideas.

2 Hour

We see declining pressure on the C.M.F. from this rally, try to look at the dip yesterday as an anomaly and view the general trend. This rising price with declining buy pressure is concerning. However the O.B.V. looks healthy so far.

1 Hour

Yesterday we saw the drop out of what is essentially the same pattern. This was visible on the R.S.I. and the STOCH. I did not mark it on the chart above, but take a look at the rising price with declining indicators. Today, we struggled to break past $7,600. We showed a heavy spike on the C.M.F., one candle prior to the test. In order to break this we need to see a spike back up, in addition to an increase in the O.B.V.. If the Stochastic & R.S.I. see a break below the levels shown there in orange, we have better see a drop in price to the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange) at the same time.

Note

Conclusion
If we do not soon break $7,600 BTCUSD convincingly we will need to see it come back down to $7,300 or to support to attempt again. We did this in April but the conditions were slightly different. We do show a weakening of the Bulls at this moment indicating a drop is incoming short term. Pay attention to Volume indicators IF we retest support, it will save you a lot of money.

The overall trend still shows heavy sell signals on higher time frames, I will be watching the higher time frames to see if any of those correct during this discovery phase. But.. it appears we will hold daily support for now and potentially see a rally that could last for the next month. If this plays out, we will need to really pay attention to the approach of the daily resistance shown at the top. During this time, we will see lots of sideways action for days at a time as the market finds its path. As we approach, I will be monitoring the weekly & daily time frames to see if we have a true confirmed bull rally.

TradingView's rating system shows the following on Bitcoin: https://imgur.com/a/vrWv8Kw
Found here: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/markets/

One thing to note is that the suspected rally to the top trend is not confirmed. We need higher time frame confirmation in order for me to confirm it, I am keeping an open mind on some of our lower time frames signals though. If we reject a Bull rally here or at the top of our trend then we will begin to see the next leg down in our Bear trend. The red and green Bitcoin symbols indicate the fate of Bitcoin depending on what area we break into these next 2 months. :D (It's a joke)

Thank you for reading and please support by clicking like on this analysis. Like, follow, share and interact to help me stay motivated to keep these trending. Thank You!

Note

Dropped out as expected and detailed. next leg down incoming. We rest on the baseline of the ichi but it looks like we are prepping for the drop shortly.

Trade active

I mentioned in my last update the next leg down is incoming. There it is, I am looking for a continuation pattern to form and for us to settle around $7,300 before we decide what our next move is. My next update will be a full analysis.

Note

Nick_Core

All posts are for educational purposes and are simply my views of markets conditions.

Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.

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