A Bitcoin Prediction (2024)
Updated
In this chart, I uncover price levels across an identified cyclical pattern hidden within Bitcoin.
I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below)
My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects.
Some Observational and Key Points:
Final comments:
This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me.
Thanks and Enjoy!
I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below)
My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects.
Some Observational and Key Points:
- I base some findings on a 2 x 8-year cycle rather than the conventional 4-year cycle. However, it may appear shorter than expected. Just as there are diminishing returns, there too is an aspect of diminishing cycle timing.
- While cycles are often recognised by their low and high targets, not many observe the time it takes to surpass a previous all-time high (ATH) or low. This is interesting because Bitcoin does not exhibit this repetitive behaviour in its history.
- I observed the peaks and troughs while noting the counts and periods across cycle phases and took a visual snapshot towards 2022-24 playing into more likely that of 2013-16.
- I've projected 2 ATHs as a range due to the nature of placement. The first target is primary, and wicks above could stretch into the second. Projections are also based on a 2-week (close) timeframe.
Final comments:
This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me.
Thanks and Enjoy!
Note
Here is a easier view of the chartNote
Update: The 2-week close has surpassed the Phase 2 Breakout target. This occurred much sooner than in previous cycles, which does not invalidate the chart's analysis. While timing isn't the primary focus here, the emphasis lies on respecting the forecasted levels. According to the analysis/theory depicted in this chart, the probabilities suggest a bullish uptrend and continuation. It is plausible to anticipate a retest of this phase at $44,800 at a later stage before further continuation. Although not essential, a healthy retest would provide strength and reinforce market structure. If the below Breakout Phase 1 targets are not hit then it is either a matter of time before we do or this theory is invalidated and we are breaking a cyclical pattern.Note
Hey, so I think today is a good day to post an update. Staying true to what was written in Phase 2 Breakout seems to be playing to fruition. I have placed my other mini target and breakouts which are not in the main chart but for an update, we have now broken above the 53k resistance and appear to be on the road to new ATHs. I'd be paying attention to $59-60k as this could be a nice little consolidation range.Note
Time for an update as I want to shout out this BTC chart idea. So far this has being playing out nicely. Today BTC's 2 weekly closed below the 71k target. So there are few possible scenarios that could now play out:- We continue and blast through onto the 2nd leg of this phase and top out near 91k turning 71k into support.
- We range, with wicks up and down around the 71k range, with a close below the target on LTFs daily, 3D, weekly etc (< 2W)
- We witness a greater pull which poses greater opportunities below 71k and continue upward slowly over the coming weeks to months.
Takeaways from previous reactions:
Historically 2/3 times we rejected and closed below this projective target, this would now be 3/4 times. Previous the drawdowns after being rejected ranged from 40%-80%, so there has been one serious dump (fake out).
Closing in new price discovery would be probable for continuation, but be mindful of the above as we did exhibit a serious fake out (flash crash) back in 2013.
Closing statement:
Since we closed below, we might now be seeing an whipsaw action that could open opportunities where it could mean that we come down lower in a proper correction. Although not necessary there is another 2 weeks window before we get another close. As previous indications suggests a greater pull-back could be in order, I believe it maybe short lived. There will be only a small chance to get in. I also do not believe that the below projections will get hit. Time to stay focused, the trend is UP and over the next few days I think we might be seeing some volatility come back in. Please see my other charts as those also show some confluence for strong yet quick corrective retracements.
Note
Another little update on this chart. Apologises, I never actually posted the 2 weekly, not realising that this screenshot was the 1 week. However, needless to say as mentioned 2/3 times (now 3/4) we rejected and close below. So probabilities would slightly lie in that favor. I also indicated that there would be a sign of a greater pull back if we closed below my projected target at 71k. It did temporarily stretch a little higher but now the question remains from what I updated in my previous closing statement, is it a short lived or a lower proper correction? Just know that a pullback could be up to 40% which brings us right back to the Phase 2 Breakout at $44,800, however, it is not what I see. I remain confluent with my other charts that do signify lower timeframe signals, ultimately these are what leads into the bigger moved. In this chart we wait and watch for the next 2 week close.In this screenshot I have added another projective chart which could be a level to be considered if a greater pull-back comes to fruition.
Note
Small little update as it seems timing was on point here. Not to say we cannot retrace lower as mentioned in my previous update, but the added projected target for now has be hit. I mere $30 off. 5 days until the next 2 week close and wicks below can occur, as long as close back above. We remain patience and see if this level can be break or hold.Note
Another 2 week close update:Well the results as mentioned in my previous update "wicks below can occur, as long as close back above" appeared to have played out. We held and closed back above the 62k price. Currently sitting within both projective targets, I suspect for this next 2 weeks, we do attempt to climb higher and not spend too much time within this range. Although it could still play out, 69k is key level, however, I'll be more confident if we hold and close above 72k (weekly-2W). Keep in mind that within this time we could experience a rapid sharp wick below the previous 2W low. This, in my opinion, if it were to occur and not close below, would be super bullish. Let's revisit in the coming days...
Note
Another 2-week close update:Today we closed the 2-week period above the previous ATH, albeit just barely. However, we still opened within this range. This does give slight probabilities to more upside, and currently, we are now sitting above the top side of the phase 3 breakout (distribution) at around 72k. We now want to stay above this level and close multiple dailies to solidify a break into new price discovery. If this occurs, then sentiment or the rules bounded by this chart might just come to fruition.
Bearing in mind, this theory invokes a balance to price levels and major macro pivots, and the next target at 91k is something I'd be paying attention to, as it may just be the next area of interest that would leave a major sideways gapped range (much like 2020-2022) since breaking out of the previous phase.
As for the bearish side, I need to emphasize, this chart does not depict timings, and closes below the levels may suggest a continuation back within the range. We need to focus on that if the charts starts showing any signs of reversing, until then it's following this trajectory.
Thanks and this next 2 weeks will surely be a banger!
Note
A final 2 week close for April 2024:Today we closed below the phase 3 breakout which as mentioned in my previous update, this may suggest a continuation within the range. Since this has now occurred we either see a short term bearish reversal or a longer drawn out consolidation with the current range. I've placed another projective target ($58,300) which I would consider the last point of where we would need to hold. Remember wicks below are fine and based on this 2W timeframe we would need to close above in the coming weeks in order to remain bullish. I would also assess the daily closes if this target is reached.
For the bullish take, I would now need to see a close above the Phase 3 Breakout target at 71k
Note: I've also changed the temporary projective targets to dashes so that they are distinguishable from the original published chart.
Thanks
Note
Another 2 week close and we managed to tag the additional projective target ($58,300) I placed. However, we have also rallied right back into the consolidation range between 71-62k. I would hope that the tag of this lower target was it and now we move up higher, but I have to remain cautiously bullish. I do suspect that in May we should have a resolution. I also should re-instate and emphasize that Phase 1retest is not timebound, as since we have not retested this 32k breakout, there could be implications that we do retest this target before continuing. If we don't then it would be the first time we haven't retested this level. It could be weeks, months or even years. So this is one thing to keep an eye on.
The next 2-week update will surely have something to talk about.
Note
A bit delayed in updating this chart, but we're also coming up to another 2-week close. So thought it might be worthwhile doing 2 updates in 1. Since our last 2 week close we pulled right out of the bottom side of the target of $58,366. Whilst PA went lower, wicks are fine as long as the close is above the target, and thats what we saw. Now PA has moved passed the $62,300 target and we are right back into the first peaked range again.
The 2-week closures have not been outside either side of the projective targets and the price is also currently above previous ATHs and just grinding sideways. What I still need to see is a clear closure above the 71k target, once this is done I'll have stronger confidence we are moving into phase 3 (distribution) Whilst I say this, I do not rule out a close above and a strong hard wick down even to the low side 51k. A close under or around this at that price would suggest otherwise. Of course, If this does not occur then its clear skies ahead.
I had anticipated that May 2024 was the month a major move would occur, so it could be around the corner for the closing of this month, or perhaps even early June.
I'll post an update if we see anything or after our next 2 week close, whatever comes first!
Note
Bitcoin Prediction Update:I haven't posted in a while, and although PA has not made any major moves within the predicted points, it has been a sideways trail for over a month since my last post. Tomorrow we close yet another 2 week candle and have yet to invalidate this chart. I've added in a label for where the invalidation price is. If we close below this point I do suspect we go much lower. However, until that price is hit I remain still in favour of more upside. It is by far the longest time we have spent within this range between the 2 and 3 phases. This only occurred in 2013 on Bitcoin's second attempt to ATHs, which could be a repeating behaviour.
Two things to watch for,:
1. If we do close above $58,366 tomorrow then I suspect a continuation, and would be watching for retraces below but no closes even potentially on the daily beyond this price.
2. If we do close below $58,366 tomorrow then we will start looking at potentially lower targets and perhaps that $44, 900 retest price.
I also suspect that the greater move that takes place should start no further than the beginning of August but confirmation is more likely within the next 10 days. You can refer to my Bullrun Rings Chart for timing
Note
Bitcoin Prediction Update:
I think this sideways boring price action calls for some updates to this chart. As it stands, the previous 2-week close happened to be above my invalidation target at $58,366, but as of writing this update, PA is now currently below. Although wicks below are fine, there is a looming idea that Bitcoin might be attempting to come further down and retest the Breakout of Phase 2 at $44,852. Unless the invalidation point is broken with a 2 week close I still have to maintain my stance on this chart. If we take a look at the weekly close on 1st July, you can see Bitcoin reclaimed this break down at the end of the 2-week close. We have less than 1 more week to see if this plays out again.
I do suspect that probabilities could even lie on an even lower target of $32,448. This would surely turn some heads and open up changes to this chart but it's too early to call for this at this point in time.
What I am watching for is some movement from now till around early-mid Sept. If the price tends to fall even further then it could be the time to start looking for reversals. If price goes up in the short term then we could witness a false move. Until then I do think we could more or less grind sideways a little bit longer.
Note
Bitcoin Prediction Chart:
Well, this 2W close has put us in a predicament. We have officially closed below the last invalidation point at $58,366, in fact, we've closed well below. Although the last update I gave was a short-term scenario. I mentioned that if we go up sooner then we might see it as a false move. It was the next part of the scenario that I'll admit I was not expecting nor did I mention anything to occur, I expected a short-term dump (wick) or a continuing sideways grind. Neither really occurred as we did close a macro candle on new lows.
Typically we don't see price action come back down in this phase. If this were the Phase 1 breakout I would possibly suggest that we could be coming back down to retest $32,448. So this time is slightly different and we retest phase 2 break out at approx. $44-43k instead? This could be what's happening. However, what I can say and this might be my only saving grace, is this "Sling Shot Gamble" target I put in the chart, just so marries with the low that we tagged in July. So if the rest of Sept is just a sideways grind but maybe it's also UP. Signs of rejection from anywhere around $57-58k. That just might be your time to jump 🤢
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