BTC in a stage 3 decline

Over the past year BTC broke out of a stage 4 decline it formed a "cup and handle" broke out above the 200D MA but failed to hold momentum but instead rolled over into a range.

It's now trading under the POC "27900 level" the path of least resistance would be to target the 200D MA as a demand zone, this should play out by the end of this month if we print a bearish candle on the monthly.

A trade invalidation would be a reclaim of the 27900 level.

Note

This chart has some old levels still on it the lower purple box is now a "demand zone", but for now I'll be looking at the 24300 level =)

Note

A look back on what went wrong with this TA that hit all targets,

2month and 12days early I got stopped out at 28200 as it ripped past 30k taking a good hit. My thesis was correct but more shorts needed to be liquidated before we could go lower and punch through that 200d MA with conviction.

Lessons learnt as the trade was two months early a key support got built up at 27900 and to the present day that's the key level that broke causing a trigger of stops as the long term POC got taken out and the next strong support was 24500 "area of value" had a strong bounce.

I believe sentiment was near neutral at the time (two days prior to the break as the range was wide creating a bearish rectangle box a perfect coil) . Note the CME chart showed cleaner bearish structure.

Now that we are trading under the 200d we are at stage 4, this trade is now closed.....

tradersedgeray

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