BTCUSD – Weak Pullback, Bears in Control | Will the $100K Zone Hold?
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
Bitcoin continues to face downside pressure after failing to hold above the key $108K resistance. Several macro factors are influencing sentiment:
📉 US bond yields are rising again, as markets expect the Fed to delay rate cuts. This adds pressure on risk assets like BTC.
🪙 Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows remain positive, but are currently not strong enough to counter short-term selling pressure.
💵 The DXY (US Dollar Index) is recovering, as investors flee to USD amid geopolitical volatility in the Middle East.
📊 Institutional liquidity is thinning across exchanges, adding to intraday volatility.
📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
🔹 Trend Structure:
BTC is now firmly in a short-term downtrend, trading below the descending trendline and all key moving averages (EMA 34, 89, 200).
Rejection from every pullback suggests that sellers are still in control.
🔹 Key Price Zones:
Bearish FVG Resistance: 106,096 – 107,004
First Support Zone: 102,821
Major Support Zone: 101,539 → 100,419
A clean break below 100K could open the door to 98,000 and below
🔹 Momentum:
RSI is neutral, hovering around the mid-40s without strong divergence signals.
Selling volume is increasing but not yet explosive — indicating the market may be awaiting a macro catalyst.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Traders are currently in “wait-and-see” mode, eyeing the next round of macroeconomic data and potential Fed commentary.
Short-term profit-taking is dominant after last week’s sharp rally.
Overall sentiment: Bearish short-term – Neutral mid-term – Bullish long-term
🎯 Trade Setup Ideas
🔻 SELL if price retests FVG and gets rejected
Entry: 106,000 – 107,000
Stop-Loss: 107,500
Targets: 102,821 → 101,539 → 100,419
🔹 BUY if price reacts strongly from 100,419 – 101,500
Entry: 100,500 – 100,800
Stop-Loss: 99,800
Targets: 102,800 → 104,400 → 106,000
Preference is given to selling the rally in the short term. Buying should only be considered on confirmed reversal signals at key support.
✅ Conclusion
BTCUSD is currently in a corrective phase, with bears maintaining control. The key level to watch is the $100,419 support zone, which may determine whether Bitcoin maintains its medium-term bullish structure or breaks further. Discipline and confirmation are crucial in this volatile environment.
📌 Strategy Focus: Look to sell rallies toward resistance; buy only on confirmed bounce from strong support zones.
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
Bitcoin continues to face downside pressure after failing to hold above the key $108K resistance. Several macro factors are influencing sentiment:
📉 US bond yields are rising again, as markets expect the Fed to delay rate cuts. This adds pressure on risk assets like BTC.
🪙 Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows remain positive, but are currently not strong enough to counter short-term selling pressure.
💵 The DXY (US Dollar Index) is recovering, as investors flee to USD amid geopolitical volatility in the Middle East.
📊 Institutional liquidity is thinning across exchanges, adding to intraday volatility.
📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
🔹 Trend Structure:
BTC is now firmly in a short-term downtrend, trading below the descending trendline and all key moving averages (EMA 34, 89, 200).
Rejection from every pullback suggests that sellers are still in control.
🔹 Key Price Zones:
Bearish FVG Resistance: 106,096 – 107,004
First Support Zone: 102,821
Major Support Zone: 101,539 → 100,419
A clean break below 100K could open the door to 98,000 and below
🔹 Momentum:
RSI is neutral, hovering around the mid-40s without strong divergence signals.
Selling volume is increasing but not yet explosive — indicating the market may be awaiting a macro catalyst.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Traders are currently in “wait-and-see” mode, eyeing the next round of macroeconomic data and potential Fed commentary.
Short-term profit-taking is dominant after last week’s sharp rally.
Overall sentiment: Bearish short-term – Neutral mid-term – Bullish long-term
🎯 Trade Setup Ideas
🔻 SELL if price retests FVG and gets rejected
Entry: 106,000 – 107,000
Stop-Loss: 107,500
Targets: 102,821 → 101,539 → 100,419
🔹 BUY if price reacts strongly from 100,419 – 101,500
Entry: 100,500 – 100,800
Stop-Loss: 99,800
Targets: 102,800 → 104,400 → 106,000
Preference is given to selling the rally in the short term. Buying should only be considered on confirmed reversal signals at key support.
✅ Conclusion
BTCUSD is currently in a corrective phase, with bears maintaining control. The key level to watch is the $100,419 support zone, which may determine whether Bitcoin maintains its medium-term bullish structure or breaks further. Discipline and confirmation are crucial in this volatile environment.
📌 Strategy Focus: Look to sell rallies toward resistance; buy only on confirmed bounce from strong support zones.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
byvn.net/t06K
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
byvn.net/t06K
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
byvn.net/t06K
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals VIP
Get quality daily trading signals and plans here
JOIN NOW
byvn.net/t06K
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.