1) The bitcoin cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving ends at the end of 2025
The bitcoin price reached 11,900 US dollars on Thursday May 22, and many investors are wondering whether the bullish cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving is already over. In terms of bitcoin's time cycle, the answer is negative, as all past cycles have ended at the end of the year following halving, i.e. at the end of 2025 in the case of our current cycle.
2) In terms of chart analysis of the financial markets, the underlying trend remains bullish above support at 93000/97000 US dollars.
Since the bull market's starting point at the US$15,000 level, the same pattern has been repeating itself, alternating between impulses, sideways phases and bullish breakouts. As long as the market holds above support at $93/97K, this bullish pattern is not invalidated.
3) If M2 global liquidity continues to act as a leading indicator, then bitcoin's price should make a new record this summer
Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin has been on a marked uptrend. This progression, which we have followed step by step, raises a key question: can this momentum be maintained throughout the spring, and even into the summer, in the absence of explicit signals of monetary stimulus from the major central banks? Such a hypothesis seems plausible, provided that a key - and often underestimated - driver continues to act: the unprecedented increase in global liquidity, as measured by the M2 monetary aggregate.
This new peak in global M2 money supply is more than just macroeconomic data. It represents a genuine source of liquidity for risky assets. This aggregate includes sight deposits, liquid savings accounts and immediately available funds - all resources that can be mobilized rapidly on the markets.
Global M2 is the sum of data from the three main economic zones: the United States, China and Europe. And each of them is actively participating in this monetary expansion:
In China, M2 is at an all-time high, reflecting the accommodating stance of the Beijing authorities.
In Europe, the aggregate rose sharply under the effect of the first rate cuts initiated by the ECB.
In the United States, despite the Fed's still restrictive stance, M2 is growing strongly and is now close to its highest levels. The evidence is therefore crystal clear: the major economies are injecting liquidity in a coordinated fashion, which is mechanically supporting the valuation of financial assets, with Bitcoin at the forefront.
Consequently, if this positive linear correlation continues, and if support at $93/97K is preserved, then the likelihood of a new record high for Bitcoin this summer is attractive.
What about altcoins? This will be the subject of one of our next publications, so don't hesitate to follow our account on TradingView.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The bitcoin price reached 11,900 US dollars on Thursday May 22, and many investors are wondering whether the bullish cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving is already over. In terms of bitcoin's time cycle, the answer is negative, as all past cycles have ended at the end of the year following halving, i.e. at the end of 2025 in the case of our current cycle.
2) In terms of chart analysis of the financial markets, the underlying trend remains bullish above support at 93000/97000 US dollars.
Since the bull market's starting point at the US$15,000 level, the same pattern has been repeating itself, alternating between impulses, sideways phases and bullish breakouts. As long as the market holds above support at $93/97K, this bullish pattern is not invalidated.
3) If M2 global liquidity continues to act as a leading indicator, then bitcoin's price should make a new record this summer
Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin has been on a marked uptrend. This progression, which we have followed step by step, raises a key question: can this momentum be maintained throughout the spring, and even into the summer, in the absence of explicit signals of monetary stimulus from the major central banks? Such a hypothesis seems plausible, provided that a key - and often underestimated - driver continues to act: the unprecedented increase in global liquidity, as measured by the M2 monetary aggregate.
This new peak in global M2 money supply is more than just macroeconomic data. It represents a genuine source of liquidity for risky assets. This aggregate includes sight deposits, liquid savings accounts and immediately available funds - all resources that can be mobilized rapidly on the markets.
Global M2 is the sum of data from the three main economic zones: the United States, China and Europe. And each of them is actively participating in this monetary expansion:
In China, M2 is at an all-time high, reflecting the accommodating stance of the Beijing authorities.
In Europe, the aggregate rose sharply under the effect of the first rate cuts initiated by the ECB.
In the United States, despite the Fed's still restrictive stance, M2 is growing strongly and is now close to its highest levels. The evidence is therefore crystal clear: the major economies are injecting liquidity in a coordinated fashion, which is mechanically supporting the valuation of financial assets, with Bitcoin at the forefront.
Consequently, if this positive linear correlation continues, and if support at $93/97K is preserved, then the likelihood of a new record high for Bitcoin this summer is attractive.
What about altcoins? This will be the subject of one of our next publications, so don't hesitate to follow our account on TradingView.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.