Firstly... I'd like to comment we have officially just had our first daily close above "Minor Resistance" trend-line I have put in, additionally... a daily close above the 50SMA.
All trend-lines have flipped into bullish posture as well as my indicators and SMA / EMA ribbons!
📈 Price & Fibonacci Levels
Holding above key support: $104,751 (0.888 Fib)
Eyeing 1.618 Fib extension target: $139,094
Former resistance from 2021 has flipped into support, confirming breakout structure
🌊 M2 Global Liquidity Index = The Engine Behind BTC
BTC price is highly correlated with the M2 Global Liquidity Index (now at 98.91) and has been following since JAN 2024.
What is M2? It's a measure of global money supply growth. Rising M2 = more liquidity in the system = bullish for risk assets like BTC
This macro liquidity uptrend continues to support the Bitcoin rally
📉 RSI Reset, Momentum Reloading
RSI (14) is at 47.82, a neutral level historically followed by bullish continuation in uptrends
Momentum is resetting, not breaking — the trend is still intact
🧵 SMA Ribbon & Golden Cross Setup
Multi-timeframe SMA ribbon (10–500) fully supports a bullish trend
A Golden Cross (SMA 50 > 200) is already confirmed
Historically, the last 4 Golden Crosses (after a Death Cross) led to an average gain of 89% into the next local ATH
This points directly toward a $135K–$145K scenario
🌑 Lunar Timing (Historically speaking)
Most Bitcoin all-time highs occurred within ±5 days of a new moon
The next critical date: September 7, 2025 – Strong Lunar Eclipse
Historically, lunar eclipses have resulted in 30% average corrections
⚠️ This is the second eclipse in a 4-eclipse cycle — potentially stronger impact (maybe 40%, 80K territory)
Expected dip target: $90K, aligning with macro support and Fibonacci confluence
😐 Sentiment Check: Fear & Greed Index
Current reading: 52 (Neutral)
Market is not overheated
Still plenty of room before peak greed or blow-off top behavior
🔮 Final Take:
All indicators — liquidity, momentum, cycle timing, and historical averages — suggest Bitcoin is not done yet. After a possible eclipse-driven correction into the $90K region, we likely enter the final euphoric push of this macro leg toward $135K–$145K.
📅 Key Dates:
23rd August new moon top out $135K (please consider a 5 day window 18th -28th August)
Next New Moon & Lunar Eclipse: September 7, 2025
Watch for volatility, alt rotation, BTC.D
💬 Agree or disagree? Drop a comment.
🔔 Follow for lunar/RSI/fib cycle updates!
Disclaimer:
The content provided in this post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, asset, or security. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading and investing involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
All trend-lines have flipped into bullish posture as well as my indicators and SMA / EMA ribbons!
📈 Price & Fibonacci Levels
Holding above key support: $104,751 (0.888 Fib)
Eyeing 1.618 Fib extension target: $139,094
Former resistance from 2021 has flipped into support, confirming breakout structure
🌊 M2 Global Liquidity Index = The Engine Behind BTC
BTC price is highly correlated with the M2 Global Liquidity Index (now at 98.91) and has been following since JAN 2024.
What is M2? It's a measure of global money supply growth. Rising M2 = more liquidity in the system = bullish for risk assets like BTC
This macro liquidity uptrend continues to support the Bitcoin rally
📉 RSI Reset, Momentum Reloading
RSI (14) is at 47.82, a neutral level historically followed by bullish continuation in uptrends
Momentum is resetting, not breaking — the trend is still intact
🧵 SMA Ribbon & Golden Cross Setup
Multi-timeframe SMA ribbon (10–500) fully supports a bullish trend
A Golden Cross (SMA 50 > 200) is already confirmed
Historically, the last 4 Golden Crosses (after a Death Cross) led to an average gain of 89% into the next local ATH
This points directly toward a $135K–$145K scenario
🌑 Lunar Timing (Historically speaking)
Most Bitcoin all-time highs occurred within ±5 days of a new moon
The next critical date: September 7, 2025 – Strong Lunar Eclipse
Historically, lunar eclipses have resulted in 30% average corrections
⚠️ This is the second eclipse in a 4-eclipse cycle — potentially stronger impact (maybe 40%, 80K territory)
Expected dip target: $90K, aligning with macro support and Fibonacci confluence
😐 Sentiment Check: Fear & Greed Index
Current reading: 52 (Neutral)
Market is not overheated
Still plenty of room before peak greed or blow-off top behavior
🔮 Final Take:
All indicators — liquidity, momentum, cycle timing, and historical averages — suggest Bitcoin is not done yet. After a possible eclipse-driven correction into the $90K region, we likely enter the final euphoric push of this macro leg toward $135K–$145K.
📅 Key Dates:
23rd August new moon top out $135K (please consider a 5 day window 18th -28th August)
Next New Moon & Lunar Eclipse: September 7, 2025
Watch for volatility, alt rotation, BTC.D
💬 Agree or disagree? Drop a comment.
🔔 Follow for lunar/RSI/fib cycle updates!
Disclaimer:
The content provided in this post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, asset, or security. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading and investing involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.