Historically bearish cycles (measured by 20/21w MA inversions) average 17% shorter duration each time. This suggests the next bullish inversion of the 20/21w MA (ie. bull market confirmation) will arrive in mid March 2022.
But for a bullish inversion to happen, bulls need to rally the price enough to lift the 21w EMA over the 20w SMA, signaling a macro bull market.
The Summer 2021 rally from the bear cycle floor began around 60% through the cycle.
If we overlay that 60% onto our prediction of 122 days until a bullish inversion of the 20/21w MA occurs, that suggests that bulls will begin to rally in February 2022, leading to a bullish inversion in March 2022, signaling a new bull cycle.
We can observe additional confluence in that each cycle in the current macro pattern (from start of rally to bottom of bear) take around half as long each time, suggesting the next and probably final top will be March of 2022.
But for a bullish inversion to happen, bulls need to rally the price enough to lift the 21w EMA over the 20w SMA, signaling a macro bull market.
The Summer 2021 rally from the bear cycle floor began around 60% through the cycle.
If we overlay that 60% onto our prediction of 122 days until a bullish inversion of the 20/21w MA occurs, that suggests that bulls will begin to rally in February 2022, leading to a bullish inversion in March 2022, signaling a new bull cycle.
We can observe additional confluence in that each cycle in the current macro pattern (from start of rally to bottom of bear) take around half as long each time, suggesting the next and probably final top will be March of 2022.
Note
To clarify, I say it at the end but its not so clear- the final top is likely in March, that means the rally starts month(s) before that. I think it will be a short lived top.. tapering is set to begin in March as well, so whales have a short window here to cash out positions on the way up before the market starts to become illiquid. As to where we land in bear cycle, the lowest possible price I'd expect is low $20k range, where our 10 year low market support sits. You can reference more on the 10 year chart here.
Note
Oh and I recalculated dates.. I had a few extra days there. I think late February would be closer to peak, may some dead cats into March following that before a solid correction hits.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.