A Possible Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin by AcroScopics
Updated
Most everywhere I listen I keep hearing people stating that this latest rise in Bitcoin is a "Bull Fake". I've seen them...been a victim of them...and I don't know that I could ever be right trying to predict one in advance.
All I can do is look at the indicators that "reveal" things to me...that's really why I post these...to share them with you. Comments are great..let me know what you think.
Here are some of the compelling things I see that could be made into a BULL case...not really going to outline the BEAR case...most already believe that and some are even cost averaging their short positions as price moves up. Some for good reason too...but there's enough analysis out there on that.
I did three things on this chart, which is the 4-hour chart zoomed out but still tried to let you see what is going on.
The first thing I see is that price finally and decisively broke out of a major down channel by bursting through it to the upside with a significant increase in RSi.
It is highlighted on the chart as the dark orange line extending from the all-time high downward across all the pivot highs...so a very important and previously significant resistance line. Welcome to support!
This is very indicative of a trend change in the opposite direction, in this case up.
It also broke out of a larger wedge it's been in for a while now.
Next, price has now closed two candles above the 4H 200ma, shown as the dark red dotted line, with the 3rd candle "treading water" taking up time but not price.
This is indicative of a wave 4, which could fit today's price movement as a wave 3 Up having just completed, we're now in 4 down (sideways) and then 5 Up to finish. Finish what? Wave 1 of 5 to come? That would be bullish.
If this count is right, then wave 2 took quite a while, so wave 4 could be much shorter.
Keeping the 4H 200ma would be ideal for a bullish scenario.
I added the upward sloping potential channel/dividing lines (either support or resistance) to track price action.
The last thing I did that I'll discuss, and maybe the most controversial is to put in the Fibonacci Retracement Lines...but with a twist...or even better....a stretch.
Once this small 4 completes, there might be a five up to finish this wave.
In an ideal bullish case, it would retrace to the 38.2% FRL. (I'm sure I only have to spell it out once),
So I moved the FRLs to where the retracement might come back to...the 200ma, this giving me where wave 5 up may end.
Watching to see if price will move up to the 0% FRL with the purple pivot point line just above.
I also put in small lines from where the 50 and 200MA lines are on the 1 Day chart.
Now you know what I do at 12:30 on a Friday Night! (Saturday morning....)
Check back and click on the arrow and see how it plays out!
Would love to get your comments!
All I can do is look at the indicators that "reveal" things to me...that's really why I post these...to share them with you. Comments are great..let me know what you think.
Here are some of the compelling things I see that could be made into a BULL case...not really going to outline the BEAR case...most already believe that and some are even cost averaging their short positions as price moves up. Some for good reason too...but there's enough analysis out there on that.
I did three things on this chart, which is the 4-hour chart zoomed out but still tried to let you see what is going on.
The first thing I see is that price finally and decisively broke out of a major down channel by bursting through it to the upside with a significant increase in RSi.
It is highlighted on the chart as the dark orange line extending from the all-time high downward across all the pivot highs...so a very important and previously significant resistance line. Welcome to support!
This is very indicative of a trend change in the opposite direction, in this case up.
It also broke out of a larger wedge it's been in for a while now.
Next, price has now closed two candles above the 4H 200ma, shown as the dark red dotted line, with the 3rd candle "treading water" taking up time but not price.
This is indicative of a wave 4, which could fit today's price movement as a wave 3 Up having just completed, we're now in 4 down (sideways) and then 5 Up to finish. Finish what? Wave 1 of 5 to come? That would be bullish.
If this count is right, then wave 2 took quite a while, so wave 4 could be much shorter.
Keeping the 4H 200ma would be ideal for a bullish scenario.
I added the upward sloping potential channel/dividing lines (either support or resistance) to track price action.
The last thing I did that I'll discuss, and maybe the most controversial is to put in the Fibonacci Retracement Lines...but with a twist...or even better....a stretch.
Once this small 4 completes, there might be a five up to finish this wave.
In an ideal bullish case, it would retrace to the 38.2% FRL. (I'm sure I only have to spell it out once),
So I moved the FRLs to where the retracement might come back to...the 200ma, this giving me where wave 5 up may end.
Watching to see if price will move up to the 0% FRL with the purple pivot point line just above.
I also put in small lines from where the 50 and 200MA lines are on the 1 Day chart.
Now you know what I do at 12:30 on a Friday Night! (Saturday morning....)
Check back and click on the arrow and see how it plays out!
Would love to get your comments!
Note
Price just hit the dotted line for the 1 Day 50 Moving Average and has pulled back.RSI is still strong so the question is...is the high in for this wave or is there another push up left...stay tuned!
Note
Price just retraced from this last high to the 61.8% Retracement line and looks like it wants to go back up. Not convinced the high is in yet...will update that chart when it becomes more apparent.Note
LOL...or this could be just the 1 Up and 2 Dn on the 4 hour chart of Wave 5 to come.If so, and if Wave 5 were the same length as Wave 3, that would take Bitcoin to 47,000...just about where the 200ma on the 1 Day chart is...just saying.
Note
Price has just moved up to touch the 1 Day 50 MA line again and is pulling back. I was laughing at my previous update, but darn if it isn't a real possibility. If price corrects from this latest rise only to the 38.6% retracement line, it could be a first indication that the high for this wave is not in.Not sure of the wave count, but looks like a 1 Up is done and we're in 2 Dn.
If true, 3 Up would be next and shock everyone.
Shorts will get stopped out, people will start chasing, and what if this is only the end of 1 Up of 5 Up to come? Ready for that? Like I said, it would be a shock, but is a possibility. Got nothing but time.
Note
On the 15 Min chart, price moved above the dotted red line indicating where the 50 moving average is on the 1 Day chart. The second candle on the 15 min chart has now closed above that level...a WILD possibility is that this is the beginning of wave 3 up and that wave 1 has completed, in 2 dn, with 3, 4 and 5 to come to finish 3. That would mean this thing would have to rocket up pretty soon for that scenario to play out. Buckle up?Note
BINGO! Jusy exceeded the pink zone!Note
Price not only moved up to the first blue line above, but has just not hit and retraced slightly from the 2nd blue line above. WoW!And here's the new news...this last wave up could only be the THIRD wave up of a FIVE wave move. It's a very bullish count, but is certainly possible. There should be a correction coming, the only question when it happens is how far will it pull back and how long will it last. This is so exciting to watch. Hope you're getting something from this!
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