Simple Analysis of BTC Daily Timeframe
Updated
Simple idea here.
The 200 Day Simple Moving Average: The thick blue line (now turned orange) is a historical point where bitcoin has shown significant market changes over the past 3 cycles. When trading above this line, we tend to be in a bull market. When trading below this line, we tend to trade bear market. Three cycles worth of history shows that this is very accurate. Time will tell here.
The 200 Day Smoothed Moving Average: Seemingly the last line of defense (the green line). We've wicked down to this moving average three times on the daily and its held up each time. Market sentiment, volume and trend analysis leans towards being more bearish in the coming weeks but it's truly a speculation game at this point in time. We're in a no-man's land between the 200 SMA and 200 SMMA.
My guess (as that is all we can do at this point), is that we are still headed downwards in the coming weeks. If the smoothed moving average holds up as as support, maybe we'll see the first time a historical indicator of a bear market was wrong. Keep an eye on these moving averages. Set your alerts. Trade safe!
The 200 Day Simple Moving Average: The thick blue line (now turned orange) is a historical point where bitcoin has shown significant market changes over the past 3 cycles. When trading above this line, we tend to be in a bull market. When trading below this line, we tend to trade bear market. Three cycles worth of history shows that this is very accurate. Time will tell here.
The 200 Day Smoothed Moving Average: Seemingly the last line of defense (the green line). We've wicked down to this moving average three times on the daily and its held up each time. Market sentiment, volume and trend analysis leans towards being more bearish in the coming weeks but it's truly a speculation game at this point in time. We're in a no-man's land between the 200 SMA and 200 SMMA.
My guess (as that is all we can do at this point), is that we are still headed downwards in the coming weeks. If the smoothed moving average holds up as as support, maybe we'll see the first time a historical indicator of a bear market was wrong. Keep an eye on these moving averages. Set your alerts. Trade safe!
Note
We've pinged off the 200 SMMA now FOUR times. Seems like a strong support for now. It's important to note that every time we've broken the 200 Daily SMA (blue to orange line), we've entered a multi-month downtrend with some impulses in between. I don't believe the bottom is in just yet. I'm not confident this has enough strength to turn itself around right now. I'm still aiming for mid 20's before this makes any sort of major trend reversal. Trade safe!!!
Note
The 200 SMMA never lies. We're in a fight for our lives right now lol
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