An Interesting Trendline Rejection (BTC)
Updated
I pulled up my old Bitstamp chart, which I used during the previous bull market and the 2018 bear market to make some speculations and estimations. One of the most concerning technical developments in the 2021-2022 bear market was that Bitcoin lost its long term trendline (lower orange line). Bitstamp is useful because it stretches all the way back to 2012. To get back above that trendline and resume a more aggressive rate of increase, it would need to explode above 200k within the next few weeks. That seems pretty unrealistic.
What caught my eye was that Bitcoin's recent top perfectly touched a trendline I drew in 2022. It's not that this necessarily means anything, but I found it interesting and wanted to make a short post about it. If nothing else, this retest and rejection illustrates Bitcoin's slowing of momentum over time. I suppose it also serves as an important hurdle - I think if Bitcoin can break above it and retest it, that would be a huge sign of strength for bulls.
Volume continues to decline overall, and active addresses have also started to disappear. A decline of this magnitude in active addresses is often seen at cycle peaks. But this time it's different - it almost appears to be plateauing, meaning there is a significant chance everything Bitcoin has peaked. To put it bluntly, Bitcoin has not seen a significant increase in "adoption" since 2017. This has generally been my stance since 2022.
I drew a new line (blue) supporting price since the 2022 bottom, to show where price can reasonably fall from here and remain in an uptrend. The trendline support is currently around 45k. If that trendline breaks down, I think a retest of 2022 lows are in order, at least, if not the elusive 13.8k level (2019 high).
That's it for now! Thanks for reading. Of course, this is meant for speculative purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
What caught my eye was that Bitcoin's recent top perfectly touched a trendline I drew in 2022. It's not that this necessarily means anything, but I found it interesting and wanted to make a short post about it. If nothing else, this retest and rejection illustrates Bitcoin's slowing of momentum over time. I suppose it also serves as an important hurdle - I think if Bitcoin can break above it and retest it, that would be a huge sign of strength for bulls.
Volume continues to decline overall, and active addresses have also started to disappear. A decline of this magnitude in active addresses is often seen at cycle peaks. But this time it's different - it almost appears to be plateauing, meaning there is a significant chance everything Bitcoin has peaked. To put it bluntly, Bitcoin has not seen a significant increase in "adoption" since 2017. This has generally been my stance since 2022.
I drew a new line (blue) supporting price since the 2022 bottom, to show where price can reasonably fall from here and remain in an uptrend. The trendline support is currently around 45k. If that trendline breaks down, I think a retest of 2022 lows are in order, at least, if not the elusive 13.8k level (2019 high).
That's it for now! Thanks for reading. Of course, this is meant for speculative purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Comment
Support exists at this trendline between $43-45k, depending how you draw it. 
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