The charts provide compelling evidence of fractal patterns between Bitcoin's 2017 bull run and the current 2025 cycle, revealing both striking similarities and meaningful differences in market behavior.
Key Similarities
Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements:
Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025)
Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks
Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows
Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case)
Key Differences
Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to
2017
Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer
First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration
Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer
Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer
Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements:
First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half
Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half
Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half
Technical Analysis Support
This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators:
Bollinger Bands would show:
Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves
Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts
2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections
Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate:
Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends
Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance
2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods
Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes
Predictive Value
This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons:
Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns.
Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns.
Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate:
The current cycle extending into mid-2026
One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction
A final explosive move of approximately 125-150%
Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial
Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes.
This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
Key Similarities
Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements:
Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025)
Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks
Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows
Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case)
Key Differences
Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to
2017
Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer
First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration
Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer
Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer
Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements:
First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half
Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half
Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half
Technical Analysis Support
This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators:
Bollinger Bands would show:
Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves
Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts
2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections
Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate:
Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends
Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance
2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods
Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes
Predictive Value
This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons:
Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns.
Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns.
Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate:
The current cycle extending into mid-2026
One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction
A final explosive move of approximately 125-150%
Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial
Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes.
This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.