BTC - One more impulse down likely
Updated
Good afternoon traders,
After predicting another bearish impulse down in my previous analysis, I am predicting another one in the coming hours. I apologize for the messy chart, but your seeing what I actively use to trade, no cleaned up marketing material, the real deal.
I am expecting some sort of significant move to happen within the next 12 hours.
My bias is currently down, I will start with volume analysis:
Since this is an active trade, I am using smaller time frames, but I will speak to the 4 hour after this segment.
If we take a look at the three circles I've drawn on the chart below, we can see that we had a legitimate bottom buying at the first circle, a breakout attempt at the second circle, and what seems to be another breakout attempt happening now, albeit much less volume .
The previous failed attempt you can see we broke down, I am expecting something similar to happen here in the coming hours as asian Monday session rolls around and the european nightly session ends.
This leads me to believe that this will be the last upward thrust attempt, I have entered short, albeit a little early upon reflection. I will closely monitor the position to make sure it does not get away from me.
4HR Bearish Key Points:
1) Studying the 4 hour chart you can see we've entered in a flag range over the weekend, 4 hour lagging span has crossed downwards, which is what we can expect as the necessary thrust for the downward move within the larger impulse.
2) We are stalling at the .618 of the bearish impulse downwards (5136) , this tells me that another bearish impulse down is likely.
3) RSI is ranging, and is having trouble breaking its average, this tells me the bulls are not yet ready for a break upwards.
4) SlowStoch is signaling rejection of a bullish crossing.
5) MACD shows over-extension of the asset. It was looking to bearishly cross, but has re-accelerated, this tells me that the next push down should be powerful.
6) VFI is showing signs of flattening, and this will need to be watched closely over the coming hours, as this is generally my 'contrarian' indicator.
Trading plan:
I have entered into a short position, rather soon, but I will hold it. I have entered close enough to resistances that a 1% stop loss shall remain in place.
I will look to target the previous low of the current bearish impulse @ 4934. If I see bullish divergences, I will exit the trade. If I see a high volume higher low, I will exit the trade.
My take profit #2 will be the 200 day SMA .
If all goes to plan, I will then look to enter long upon confirmation of the 200 SMA on the daily acting as support.
Contrarily,
The asset has shown to be extremely bullish since its break upwards. Any counter-trend trade, such as this, must be monitored closely for failure, do not short without stop losses in place.
As always, if you like my content, please hit the "Like" and "Follow" button. Additionally, you can always receive my updates by going to settings, notifications, check receive email updates, and follow this idea.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to join the Cryptocrew discord @ discord.gg/EH2SXsV to join the discussion.
After predicting another bearish impulse down in my previous analysis, I am predicting another one in the coming hours. I apologize for the messy chart, but your seeing what I actively use to trade, no cleaned up marketing material, the real deal.
I am expecting some sort of significant move to happen within the next 12 hours.
My bias is currently down, I will start with volume analysis:
Since this is an active trade, I am using smaller time frames, but I will speak to the 4 hour after this segment.
If we take a look at the three circles I've drawn on the chart below, we can see that we had a legitimate bottom buying at the first circle, a breakout attempt at the second circle, and what seems to be another breakout attempt happening now, albeit much less volume .
The previous failed attempt you can see we broke down, I am expecting something similar to happen here in the coming hours as asian Monday session rolls around and the european nightly session ends.
This leads me to believe that this will be the last upward thrust attempt, I have entered short, albeit a little early upon reflection. I will closely monitor the position to make sure it does not get away from me.
4HR Bearish Key Points:
1) Studying the 4 hour chart you can see we've entered in a flag range over the weekend, 4 hour lagging span has crossed downwards, which is what we can expect as the necessary thrust for the downward move within the larger impulse.
2) We are stalling at the .618 of the bearish impulse downwards (5136) , this tells me that another bearish impulse down is likely.
3) RSI is ranging, and is having trouble breaking its average, this tells me the bulls are not yet ready for a break upwards.
4) SlowStoch is signaling rejection of a bullish crossing.
5) MACD shows over-extension of the asset. It was looking to bearishly cross, but has re-accelerated, this tells me that the next push down should be powerful.
6) VFI is showing signs of flattening, and this will need to be watched closely over the coming hours, as this is generally my 'contrarian' indicator.
Trading plan:
I have entered into a short position, rather soon, but I will hold it. I have entered close enough to resistances that a 1% stop loss shall remain in place.
I will look to target the previous low of the current bearish impulse @ 4934. If I see bullish divergences, I will exit the trade. If I see a high volume higher low, I will exit the trade.
My take profit #2 will be the 200 day SMA .
If all goes to plan, I will then look to enter long upon confirmation of the 200 SMA on the daily acting as support.
Contrarily,
The asset has shown to be extremely bullish since its break upwards. Any counter-trend trade, such as this, must be monitored closely for failure, do not short without stop losses in place.
As always, if you like my content, please hit the "Like" and "Follow" button. Additionally, you can always receive my updates by going to settings, notifications, check receive email updates, and follow this idea.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to join the Cryptocrew discord @ discord.gg/EH2SXsV to join the discussion.
Note
Low volume triangle breakout on hourly, looks very weak to me. Would be very surprised if we had a bullish break up right now, but it is a highly manipulated commodity.All we can do is watch for more upward movement, or a breakdown.
Note
I've adjusted my stop loss to 2%, if this 5200 zone does not act as resistance I will exit the trade at a loss. The 5200 area lines up with the upper area bounds for a counter wave, meaning, if it goes much higher than here the correction from the 5400s is likely over, and the low should be in.My bias is still one more low however, but will exit if and take a loss if I am incorrect.
Note
Good morning traders,I'm a little over 1% under water currently from my original short, but the decision to up that to a 2% stoploss was the right one, I was not stopped out over night, and looks like the 5200 zone is holding as solid resistance.
I have my stop placed currently slightly above the previous high, I will continue to monitor the position, but for now it remains open.
If we look at the daily we can see we bearishly crossed on MACD, however the other indicators are turned up due to that spike we had to 5200 last night.
I still believe we will re-test 4934 at the very minimum, but as mentioned previously, BTC hasnt been this bullish in a long time.
That's all for now folks, good luck, and trade safe!
Note
High volume breakdown, if 5080 rejects, should be smooth sailing on the short.Trade closed manually
Closed for a 1.4% profit. Will look to go long upon a higher low confirmation to 5083-5119Note
Did not catch the long, but we are currently at the .618 and .65 of the bearish impulse with little volume.I refilled 50% of my position short and looking to refill more @ the trend level resistance / .618/.65 of the last bullish wave.
Note
Rising wedge on 5m, should breakdown soonNote
Note
Rising wedge broke down but bounced and created a higher low. I've drawn the trend as well as a triangle being formed, either way its a flag or a continuation triangle, with a bearish wedge inside it, that has already played out.
Need to observe the trendlines closely, but its very likely we see one more impulse down.
Note
H&S pattern forming which if executed would target outside the channel possibly signifying the impulse breakdownNote
Wouldnt be surprised if we plummetted here...its insane how manipulated this market is.
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Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
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