BitcoinLong
2024-06-19 - a daily price action after hour update - bitc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
comment: Let’s review the 4h chart because market is respecting the 20ema on this tf big time. Every touch has been sold since last Monday. The current low at 64000 was not deep enough to touch both lower bear trend lines so either we get another lower low or 64000 is bigger support and we will touch one or both upper bear trend lines. Market dipped below the big bull trend line yesterday and will probably have a daily close today below it. Since the selling is getting weaker, I expect a pullback soon. We should hit the 4h 20ema most likely and then it gets interesting. Small upper bear trend line around 65000 is possible and if bulls really want to try something, they will go for the bigger one to about 66000/66500.
current market cycle: Trading Range / on shorter tf it’s a broad bear channel, see channel on chart
key levels: small range 63000 - 67000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls only target for now is a 1h close above the 4h 20ema. That’s the magic here. Higher targets given above.
Invalidation is below 63500.
bear case: Bears in full control here. Their main goal is to break below all lower bear trend lines and below 63500 for a freefall to 60000/61000. I expect bears to continue to sell every rip. That has been working for 8 days now. —unchanged
Invalidation is above 66000.
short term: Bearish but bears getting weaker. Need to see how high the next pullback get before calculating new lower targets or if bulls have a shot of breaking above 67000 again.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Dont.
bitcoin
comment: Let’s review the 4h chart because market is respecting the 20ema on this tf big time. Every touch has been sold since last Monday. The current low at 64000 was not deep enough to touch both lower bear trend lines so either we get another lower low or 64000 is bigger support and we will touch one or both upper bear trend lines. Market dipped below the big bull trend line yesterday and will probably have a daily close today below it. Since the selling is getting weaker, I expect a pullback soon. We should hit the 4h 20ema most likely and then it gets interesting. Small upper bear trend line around 65000 is possible and if bulls really want to try something, they will go for the bigger one to about 66000/66500.
current market cycle: Trading Range / on shorter tf it’s a broad bear channel, see channel on chart
key levels: small range 63000 - 67000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls only target for now is a 1h close above the 4h 20ema. That’s the magic here. Higher targets given above.
Invalidation is below 63500.
bear case: Bears in full control here. Their main goal is to break below all lower bear trend lines and below 63500 for a freefall to 60000/61000. I expect bears to continue to sell every rip. That has been working for 8 days now. —unchanged
Invalidation is above 66000.
short term: Bearish but bears getting weaker. Need to see how high the next pullback get before calculating new lower targets or if bulls have a shot of breaking above 67000 again.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Dont.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.