Bitcoin: BTCUSD Clean Chart Waiting for dust to settle- no hurry
Updated
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Do the Math another way
Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting
for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in
interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f
or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please:
If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over.
Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both.
One thing we learned last night was that support just above
7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails
in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717.
Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it
would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing
around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to
admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart
not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it
coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938
and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish
Totals
Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed,
as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a
second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it
went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at
7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some
of you are actually reading this never-ending saga.
So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been
320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop
Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double
bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210.
So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I
was with a 50 point stop, not 20.
So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just
less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it
would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year.
So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer
too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter.
The only thing that matters here is points. Right?
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon
right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting
for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in
interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f
or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please:
If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over.
Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both.
One thing we learned last night was that support just above
7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails
in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717.
Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it
would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing
around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to
admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart
not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it
coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938
and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish
Totals
Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed,
as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a
second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it
went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at
7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some
of you are actually reading this never-ending saga.
So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been
320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop
Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double
bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210.
So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I
was with a 50 point stop, not 20.
So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just
less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it
would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year.
So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer
too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter.
The only thing that matters here is points. Right?
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon
right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
Note
Bitcoin is finally looking like a buy in the 8177 to 8144 range with a stop below 8139Note
if you managed to get long or are already (it didn't quite touch 8177 so it was not excactly easy...any way it's struggling here at 8260 and no volume so suggest taking the 60 to 70 points profit as it can come back from here again...or run stop up under it, quite tight Note
Back at buy level again at 8144. Buy with stop under 8140 and sell at recent highs again as last time.Note
Bitcoin. If you're trading this range and 8140 breaks it should create a good 90 point short to 8057 where it becomes a buy again. Not too bad at moment tarding between the blue lines...
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