BTC swing short trade on crab to 34k-44k
Updated
After a rejection near the key level of 47k and a daily close under the 50% fib retrace of the 36k low to 46k high, I suspect we may face another correction.
This is all under the guise that the recent uptrend was a 3-wave move, with a wick under 39.4k confirming the corrective move. So far it hasn't done so, but with a daily close under the 50%fib retracement, it is leaning more bearish.
Good entries for a short would be along the white solid trendline hovering ~41.5k. Since we haven't wicked under the 39k high on feb 1st, the stop loss should be near 47k. But with take profit nearing 34k to 37k, its set at 44k to maintain a 2 r/r ratio. tp is derived from possible retests around the -1stdev of the yearly vwap at 37k, and the two orange PoC lines noted on the chart.
The BBWP indicator below has inputs set to a Daily chart relative to the current 4hr chart. Bouncing off of the 20 reading could bring more volatility, but it is not yet confirmed. Btc could consolidate a bit until a move to the white trendline ~41k.
MA of the RSI on the weekly has yet to crossover from being under 50 for a while. It's very close to doing so, but at the same time given the outlook on lower time frames, there's room for the signal to head down to the green BB. Given the weekly bull divergence signal and the gravestone doji candle from the prev. week, I'm learning overall crabbish for now with a lean toward the bears.
Trade:
entry @ 41k
sl @ 45k
tp1 @ 37k
tp2 @ 34k
SUPPORT
-1 stdev of yearly vwap @ 37.2k
Cycle wave PoC's @36k & 33.7k
Yellow dashed trendline
-2 stdev of yearly vwap @ 28.5k
RESISTANCE
negative slope White trendline ~41.5k
yearly vwap & PoC of the downtrend from 69k to 33k low @ 47k
+1,+2 stdev of yr vwap noted on chart
INVALIDATIONS
closing over 42k before breaching 44.7k high
29k low of 2021
This is all under the guise that the recent uptrend was a 3-wave move, with a wick under 39.4k confirming the corrective move. So far it hasn't done so, but with a daily close under the 50%fib retracement, it is leaning more bearish.
Good entries for a short would be along the white solid trendline hovering ~41.5k. Since we haven't wicked under the 39k high on feb 1st, the stop loss should be near 47k. But with take profit nearing 34k to 37k, its set at 44k to maintain a 2 r/r ratio. tp is derived from possible retests around the -1stdev of the yearly vwap at 37k, and the two orange PoC lines noted on the chart.
The BBWP indicator below has inputs set to a Daily chart relative to the current 4hr chart. Bouncing off of the 20 reading could bring more volatility, but it is not yet confirmed. Btc could consolidate a bit until a move to the white trendline ~41k.
MA of the RSI on the weekly has yet to crossover from being under 50 for a while. It's very close to doing so, but at the same time given the outlook on lower time frames, there's room for the signal to head down to the green BB. Given the weekly bull divergence signal and the gravestone doji candle from the prev. week, I'm learning overall crabbish for now with a lean toward the bears.
Trade:
entry @ 41k
sl @ 45k
tp1 @ 37k
tp2 @ 34k
SUPPORT
-1 stdev of yearly vwap @ 37.2k
Cycle wave PoC's @36k & 33.7k
Yellow dashed trendline
-2 stdev of yearly vwap @ 28.5k
RESISTANCE
negative slope White trendline ~41.5k
yearly vwap & PoC of the downtrend from 69k to 33k low @ 47k
+1,+2 stdev of yr vwap noted on chart
INVALIDATIONS
closing over 42k before breaching 44.7k high
29k low of 2021
Note
Imgur link containing heatmaps and volume profileimgur.com/a/jcbIit6
8hr Naked PoCs on vol profile @ 41.8k, 38k-36k, and 33.5k
Bids nearing ~38k-39k on heatmaps
Note
Closed trade swing move to 34k played out. Strong sentiment change in favor of the bulls.
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