BitcoinUpdated BTC ... A NEW DAWN
The chaos ensues ... the battle has become interesting.
Well, how did everyone like that insane wick up to 7800??
In my last idea, during my updates, target reversals were 6250, 6100, 5985, 5400 and 5000. I said I doubt we go below 5k. I also said if bulls held 6250, we could see up to 7200. This beat my expectations.
People are saying that USDT is dropping in value and that is the reason for the big push last night. I refute that ... I've checked many USDT : USD pairing and they are all at 0.996. People stating the USDT is in trouble, and that funds on Bitfinex are in danger. Clarifications from Bitfinex indicate that trades in Bitfinex are in USD not USDT, and only transfers are facilitated by USDT.
"All traders on Bitfinex trade with USD (fiat), not USDT. In line with this, all trading pairs on Bitfinex are placed against USD, not USDT.
USDT on Bitfinex is used as a transport layer, used if a trader wishes to deposit or withdraw in e.g. Omni USDT or Ethereum USDT. Until the trader specifically chooses to transport their fiat in Tether-denominated USD, all their fiat holdings on Bitfinex will be held in the form of fiat USD.
Traders can get both USD and USDT onto Bitfinex through means of direct deposits. Please note that in order to both deposit and withdraw USD (in fiat or USDT denomination), a user will need to be fully KYC-verified. "
So, back the graph ... the bears FAILED. This is what happens when you get a short squeeze. This is what happens when people can't control their emotions. That wick actually caused many longs to close (many ... we are sitting at close to an annual low in longs). This means longs will look to re-enter. I do expect a cool off period after that craziness.
I'm now more convinced than ever that we will not break 5k and we may not even see sub 6k ... I've identified a buy zone 5.7k to 6.2k ... If we enter this, I'm carefully going to long, and prepare for the anticipated next bull run. In fact, I've already started doing that. I longed XRP on that last dip at 0.38. I'm glad I did that.
The season has changed, we can smell it in the air ... a new dawn arises.
Well, how did everyone like that insane wick up to 7800??
In my last idea, during my updates, target reversals were 6250, 6100, 5985, 5400 and 5000. I said I doubt we go below 5k. I also said if bulls held 6250, we could see up to 7200. This beat my expectations.
People are saying that USDT is dropping in value and that is the reason for the big push last night. I refute that ... I've checked many USDT : USD pairing and they are all at 0.996. People stating the USDT is in trouble, and that funds on Bitfinex are in danger. Clarifications from Bitfinex indicate that trades in Bitfinex are in USD not USDT, and only transfers are facilitated by USDT.
"All traders on Bitfinex trade with USD (fiat), not USDT. In line with this, all trading pairs on Bitfinex are placed against USD, not USDT.
USDT on Bitfinex is used as a transport layer, used if a trader wishes to deposit or withdraw in e.g. Omni USDT or Ethereum USDT. Until the trader specifically chooses to transport their fiat in Tether-denominated USD, all their fiat holdings on Bitfinex will be held in the form of fiat USD.
Traders can get both USD and USDT onto Bitfinex through means of direct deposits. Please note that in order to both deposit and withdraw USD (in fiat or USDT denomination), a user will need to be fully KYC-verified. "
So, back the graph ... the bears FAILED. This is what happens when you get a short squeeze. This is what happens when people can't control their emotions. That wick actually caused many longs to close (many ... we are sitting at close to an annual low in longs). This means longs will look to re-enter. I do expect a cool off period after that craziness.
I'm now more convinced than ever that we will not break 5k and we may not even see sub 6k ... I've identified a buy zone 5.7k to 6.2k ... If we enter this, I'm carefully going to long, and prepare for the anticipated next bull run. In fact, I've already started doing that. I longed XRP on that last dip at 0.38. I'm glad I did that.
The season has changed, we can smell it in the air ... a new dawn arises.
Note
Indeed Bittrex and Kracken USDT pairings are low ... but not all exchanges. If we can put the dots together ... Tether Bank Noble goes insolvent. Tether looks for new bank, finds one which is a subsidiary of HSBC (great news), HSBC finds out and wants to see paperwork (probably to make sure they are complying with US laws), account frozen in meantime and USD deposits suspended. Everyone freaks ... USDT goes down, it pushes the BTC price up, liquidating short positions and squeezes to 7800. The only question in my mind is, is this just FUD and Tether sorts out the paperwork soon, or will Tether fail? I'm going to suggest this is just FUD ... yes, a bit disappointing that Tether finds itself in this issue, but those people have lots of cash in my opinion, and so it's just a matter of getting the paperwork in place.
Note
Not much change, I do expect a drop or sideways ... but here is what I'm looking at. I do think the market remains unsatisfied until we touch that rising purple line, which is the all time low log line developing since 2015. If we dropped straight down, we would hit 4800 .. but giving a drop a realistic slope, it will probably intersect at between 5200 and 5800 ... there's a major support level at 5400 ... so maybe that's the key.
I cannot see us going lower than this without a major disaster (bad news, FUD). The bears seem exhausted. Even the futures stopped playing, CBOE and CME volumes are low compared to the middle of the year.
Note
OK, I know there's lots of lines here ... focus on 3 lines ALL in bold, blue, red and pink.Blue is my general consensus ... one last good attempt by the bears, and touch a lower log mean trend line that has developed since 2015. The red line ... I see a possible triangle wave forming and at the end of that ... we have a reaction, which is the possible pink lines ... perhaps that is the catalyst down to approximately 5200 given a reasonable slope down. But maybe bulls protect and we continue sideways with a possible rally to 7400 first.
Note
Very minor polishing up ... I see this red triangle wave playing out, then I expect a breakdown ... but keeping my eyes open for the bull trap (pink line, then down).Now I don't want to get into the habit of always saying it will go down. There's a possibility that 5755 is the bottom, and it's behind us ... certainly the market is different than a while ago. How do we play this? I would say, either long scalp at 6340 with a tight stop, or watch the breakout and let it settle, then buy support or resistance that is clearly setting up.
Note
Another update ... pushed out the possible drop ... based on ichi. One colleague helped me, and it looks like a big drop can start on Nov 9th. This also makes sense if I look at the slope of each wave in the red triangle wave I plot. I expect bottom to be 5400 now.
Note
It's funny, back on April 12th I started seeing 5400 as the bottom with a simple analysis. I got the timing wrong (WAY wrong, lol), but the technical reasons for the 5400 were there. Now I have considered Wyckoff Theory, I understand better why it took so long to get here. But here is the original idea ... 5400 predicted on April 12th. 
Note
As predicted in the updates, we would have a drop, here it is. Now from EW theory, we need point D to finish before we know where the bottom of the triangle/wedge is. I am showing ONE possibility here. If wave D is over, those two bold green dashed lines mark the triangle. BUT! Note that wave D could go lower ... it is important now to watch and see where this bottoms out ... I am not trading this wave as it is undefined. The only thing that is really possible to trade is key support, which we have at 6250 and then at 6000 (actually just below it). 6250 would make it a flat bottom triangle. I do expect this to go back up (wave E), but then fail down to set off an impulse wave ... then it could be a great buying opportunity. Top of wave E could be a great short opportunity too (but watch for a fake out/bull trap first).
Note
Correction on one above point ... 6100 would make it a flat bottom triangle. So if you want to try and guess a long ... this could be a good entry, with a tight stop (6090?). Now, please note, it could stop right here too, but we are only guessing.Note
Looks like the triangle is confirmed.I'm expecting this to go up now to 6650 to 6950. 6650 should prove to be good resistance.
Note
Right on track ... went to $6615 ... a bit short of the triangle top ... I think it's still going to push up.
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