Bitcoin Going to Zero?
Today I'd like to touch on a systemic threat to the bullish thesis on Bitcoin, and Crypto in general, which I don't see discussed very often, which is Quantum Computing (QC). Now, one of the most popular demonstrations of the power of QC, has been it's application of processing power to crack lengthy mathematical codes. Many companies, and governments across the globe, are investing in QC at the moment, including China, who recently boasted that their QC is 10 Billion times faster than Google's, shortly after Google clained Quantum supremacy. WTF? According to Deloitte, QC poses an extremely grave threat to the crypto space, and calls for a potential viable alternative to traditional cryptography, which could help mitigate the threat to the roughly 25% of Bitcoin apparently at immediate risk of hack.
There's an important point that needs to be made before we take a look at, and analyze Bitcoin's recent price action, and that's on the subject of asymmetric cryptography (AC). I know many of you are dying to talk about this, and are thinking that the so-called one-way function of AC protects the private key, because of the duration of time needed to compute it (from the public key) with even today's fastest computers. However, it's proven that any key, of seemingly any length, can be hacked with a Quantum Algorithm (QA) - see Peter Shor's (MIT mathematician) work on quantum algorithms. We've seen evidence of bitcoin being hacked in the news lately, and due to the sheer (unfathomable) power of QC's - it wouldn't take long, if not seconds, to hack.
I am certainly no expert in the crypto space. But, imo the very existence of QC technology, renders traditional cryptography marginally useful (for now), as long as QC remains outside of mainstream channels, but essentially moot in the medium to long-term. If QC ever went mainstream, or it got into the wrong hands, let's say, Bitcoin, along with all crypto currency's, could go to zero. Of course, this is all hyperbole, so I appreciate you guys letting me indulge today. Let's discuss further?
Onto some technical analysis:
Simply looking at the parabolic nature of Bitcoin's short-term hype cycles, we can can deduce a bearish thesis on immediate overbought or oversold levels. When you look at the weekly time-frame, for example, you can see that the RSI is approaching 80, once again, just as we saw in the June 2019 top, and also in the Dec 2017 top, when we saw an RSI of 90 (we're now seeing the highest weekly RSI since Dec 2017). Today we're not seeing overbought levels, we're seeing extremely overbought levels, which suggests we could see a notable retracement back to at least the previous hype cycle high around 13,700 (at the 21 week EMA), and possibly lower. We all know markets are not functioning properly, and with the MMT nightmare we're seeing playing out across the globe everyday, hedges such as gold and crypto, may continue to rally as a seemingly appropriate store of value. Although a short-term retracement would be healthy before another potential leg higher, we have to consider the unique market scenario playing out, and the distortions in flows and price discovery. Personally, I missed out on the opportunity to buy Bitcoin very cheap about 10 years ago, so in the interest of full disclosre, I'd love to see Bitcoin back at 3,000. Don't let anything you've read today alter your convictions, or distort your own observations. Everything we post is intended to add value to the community, and to stimulate intelligent discussion.
Thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed our Bitcoin analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
There's an important point that needs to be made before we take a look at, and analyze Bitcoin's recent price action, and that's on the subject of asymmetric cryptography (AC). I know many of you are dying to talk about this, and are thinking that the so-called one-way function of AC protects the private key, because of the duration of time needed to compute it (from the public key) with even today's fastest computers. However, it's proven that any key, of seemingly any length, can be hacked with a Quantum Algorithm (QA) - see Peter Shor's (MIT mathematician) work on quantum algorithms. We've seen evidence of bitcoin being hacked in the news lately, and due to the sheer (unfathomable) power of QC's - it wouldn't take long, if not seconds, to hack.
I am certainly no expert in the crypto space. But, imo the very existence of QC technology, renders traditional cryptography marginally useful (for now), as long as QC remains outside of mainstream channels, but essentially moot in the medium to long-term. If QC ever went mainstream, or it got into the wrong hands, let's say, Bitcoin, along with all crypto currency's, could go to zero. Of course, this is all hyperbole, so I appreciate you guys letting me indulge today. Let's discuss further?
Onto some technical analysis:
Simply looking at the parabolic nature of Bitcoin's short-term hype cycles, we can can deduce a bearish thesis on immediate overbought or oversold levels. When you look at the weekly time-frame, for example, you can see that the RSI is approaching 80, once again, just as we saw in the June 2019 top, and also in the Dec 2017 top, when we saw an RSI of 90 (we're now seeing the highest weekly RSI since Dec 2017). Today we're not seeing overbought levels, we're seeing extremely overbought levels, which suggests we could see a notable retracement back to at least the previous hype cycle high around 13,700 (at the 21 week EMA), and possibly lower. We all know markets are not functioning properly, and with the MMT nightmare we're seeing playing out across the globe everyday, hedges such as gold and crypto, may continue to rally as a seemingly appropriate store of value. Although a short-term retracement would be healthy before another potential leg higher, we have to consider the unique market scenario playing out, and the distortions in flows and price discovery. Personally, I missed out on the opportunity to buy Bitcoin very cheap about 10 years ago, so in the interest of full disclosre, I'd love to see Bitcoin back at 3,000. Don't let anything you've read today alter your convictions, or distort your own observations. Everything we post is intended to add value to the community, and to stimulate intelligent discussion.
Thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed our Bitcoin analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
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