Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trade Points Thursday

Updated

Bitcoin Coinbase Update
A wild night of opportunities has unfolded. Once Bitcoin broke
the little channel it was left tracking at around
01:00gmt/20:00est it came back to testthe underside of the
same minor parallel at 6800 before falling away ...right back
down tothe bigger parallel which was forecast to halt all
declines yesterday. It did exactly that in a technically perfect
display of parallel power all day long.
And then, once it breaks free of the parallels holding it down
at the lows it powers back up (long triggered here, ideally)
and then moves between the blue lines of fixed resistance as
it pushes higher.
It's now touched the 6900 next long trigger and should
consolidate here back to 6850 and to the dynamic
underpinning today's rally - has to break that dynamic to
trigger a short from here with stops above the dynamic.
And on upside it now has to break above 6910 and hold up at
6900 on retest to trigger next long with stop 50 or so lower.

Note

Bear Flag Forming

Note

Bitcoin
Broken down nicely but testing the parallel - should fall away later but can mess around here awhile first

Note

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13:38 gmt 08:38 est
Can rally to 6717 maybe at best - to the underside of the parallel now above it . Can add to shorts once the low breaks ...but if it holds here now it means a near term reversal is building in probablity - so nearest stop still just above 6700 and then at 6720 and highest at 6755

14:19 gmt 09:19est
Minor double bottom here off the structure highs to left of price (today's lows) - can spend a few minutes trying to push higher but whilst under the little dynamic and then below 6705 it remains overall weak and should break lower still fairly soon

Note

Bitcoin For the record: All updates today in sequence (please note Telegram time stamp is not updated to British summer time (we have one, but in name only, usually) - so are all need 1 hour adding to them
...It's now touched the 6900 next long trigger and should consolidate here back to 6850 and to the dynamic underpinning today's rally - has to break that dynamic to trigger a short from here with stops above the dynamic.
And on upside it now has to break above 6910 and hold up at 6900 on retest to trigger next long with stop 50 or so lower.

Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Am lowerintg the stop on this short to 6822 on Coinbase for a smallish win if struck now - or can drive the stop lower still to just 20 or so above price if preferred

Bitcoin Coinbase update
Bear Flag Forming

Bitcoin
Broken down nicely but testing the parallel - should fall away later but can mess around here awhile first

Nice break - can lower stop again to just above 6700-6725 for now and no higher that 6755 or if day trading can drive stop down aggressively to just 25 or so above price and trail - but it's higher risk obviously.
This should fall away much further yet, though

Coinbase live feed
tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

Can rally to 6717 maybe at best - to the underside of the parallel now above it . Can add to shorts once the low breaks ...but if it holds here now it means a near term reversal is building in probablity - so nearest stop still just above 6700 and then at 6720 and highest at 6755

Sorry for the feed dropping to Coinbase
tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

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Minor double bottom here off the structure highs to left of price (today's lows) - can spend a few minutes trying to push higher but whilst under the little dynamic and then below 6705 it remains overall weak and should break lower still fairly soon

Note

Dropping stop to 6775

Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Grinding higher under the parallel which should hold it back if to remain weak from here - stops for shorts need to be just a little above this parallel as if it can be broken above it can flip higher quickly by 100 to 1500 points - can catch it if only if quick, probably.
It should really start to fall away from here, but it's Bitcoin and there's a whale about. He gobbled the entire bait-ball down at 6650 - mofo.
We little fishes have to stay alert !

Woah - typo there - flip higher by 100-150 points - don't want to alarm the horses. sorry for that one

Bitstamp Update
Recent updates: please top-left of main page for link to fastest real-time updates

Big bear flag shows up best on this chart today

Bitstamp Update
Should find near term support ta 6650 and potentially bounce to 6700 -6738 range . But eventually the lower parallel is likely to break and take Bitcoin lower still

Note

Updates over last 5 hours of trading: Hard graft !

...it has to break above the dynamic holding back price and then can flip 50 to 100 higher again and delay the decline a while longer still - but eventually gravity will take over and it should begin to fall away again - harder

Bitstamp Chart Update
Weak under the dynamic forming off the high of the day but will not crack until the lower rising parallel gives way
To escape to to upside temporarily it has to break that falling dynamic and then hold up at the 6776 line once it does so - battling away inside the triangle - be prepared for chance of temporary reprieve though and if so a rally to 6900-6950 range - it shouldn't but it's Bitcoin and that whale could return so need to watch our backs here

Bitfinex Chart Update
Unfortunately this chart is not so clear as Bitstamp and Coinbase right now.
This is best can do here - just not as clean as the others

Coinbase Update

An hour's break and Bitcoin has broken out but only got to th elast little high before failing - should come back to 6760-6740 which looks to be the pivot area for the near term now.
Above here it should rally to 6900-6950 and come off again from there.
Below and it falls away to the lower parallels again - then has to fall below the lower rising parallel and hold below there to flip back to full-on bearish again.
There has been one break of the lower parallel earlier but it quickly rose back above it - it did something similar the other day too some may remember.
Bots and whales messing around maybe. That mofo could still be around. Good time to play as futures shuts for a while.
So far, as this is written it's holding right on the dividing line...

Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update.
Doesn't flip to full-on bearish until the lower parallel is broken here - then it's a short. be careful to see that it breaks lower and doesn't spike in quiet markets as we enter the twilight zone between continents. Until then it messes with heads some more.
Can still make another break to the upside but has to break the new dynamic from the last rally high to do so.
Under the dynamic Bitcoin is still weak. And once it loses the lower parallel it's a short again, as above.

Bitstamp Closer
Watch for spike in case it does the same thing again.

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Live Bitstamp Feed for overnight
tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

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Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart
After rallying one last time overnight from the lower parallel of the bear flag/continuation pattern, Bitcoin touched the resistance line at 6844 to form a triple top before falling away again. It took until the usual 06:00 gmt/01:00est drive-by time to do it but eventually Bitcoin cracked to the downside as the pattern had predicted - and when the break came it was one big streak of red as traders the world over (and still awake for it) sold out and/or shorted again.
Lower stop now to 6625 if still short.
It should have a problem breaking above 6615 if it's to remain weak from here. It should fall away to 6150 later and potentially lower still.
On upside Bitcoin has to regain 6600 and then push above 6625 here on Bitstamp for the bears start backing off again from here .

Bitstamp Closer

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update

Bitcoin Coinbase Chart
Still a bit messy compared top other two - but the break when it came was good and true and never came back to mess with heads or stops either.
But now it has.
Stopped out

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Bitcoin is tracking a dynamic from the lows and is near term positive whilst it can hold above this rising dynamic - turns negative again once it loses the line - can short agin at that point with stops above the same line when broken.- a quick scalp back to 6500 to start with. Has to break below 6500 on Bitfinex to add shorts from there.

Note

Stop on short just above 6604 for 10 loss if taken...twitchy here on Bitfinex - no sellers yet

Note

Updates Friday So far - Tricky to say the least today. Study of a perfect whale attack

This is more for newer traders. It's quite scary but educational, hopefully

Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart
After rallying one last time overnight from the lower parallel of the bear flag/continuation pattern, Bitcoin touched the resistance line at 6844 to form a triple top before falling away again. It took until the usual 06:00 gmt/01:00est drive-by time to do it but eventually Bitcoin cracked to the downside as the pattern had predicted - and when the break came it was one big streak of red as traders the world over (and still awake for it) sold out and/or shorted again.
Lower stop now to 6625 if still short.
It should have a problem breaking above 6615 if it's to remain weak from here. It should fall away to 6150 later and potentially lower still.
On upside Bitcoin has to regain 6600 and then push above 6625 here on Bitstamp for the bears start backing off again from here .

Bitstamp Closer

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update

Bitcoin Coinbase Chart
Still a bit messy compared top other two - but the break when it came was good and true and never came back to mess with heads or stops either.
But now it has.
Stopped out

Stop on any short just above 6604 for 10 loss if taken...twitchy here on Bitfinex - no sellers yet

Dropping stop again to 6589- it's lazy

Looking to sell again from 6614 on Bitfinex if touched with stop 26 points higher -
Mofo - may not get there now - a sell still from 6600 with stop above 6616 now.
Bitfinex
Lowering stop to 6591 - it's still being very lazy so far - may only break even here now...let's see

Bitstamp
A sell when it breaks the rising dynamic

Bitcoin Bam

But on support line

Whippy again today
Whale attack - bear engulfing - sonofabitch

Bitstamp Live feed
tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

Bear Trap - Baitball inside the triangle played with, bubbled up to surface - then sold/eaten

That was a slick operation and caught lots of stops as it flew back up.... a nice bubble wrap operation by a clever school of whales. Good one - if a whale at least

Note

Bitcoin Scary Monsters/Supercreeps

Still admiring the brilliant execution of that whale attack.
Gotta say it was kind of perfect - they saw the triangle of fish caught in the net either side of the competing dynamics, tightening into the noose - they flipped the price lower ripping away allthe stops down there and buying them as it flew lower, then went in long side to force it higher above the falling dynamic to rip out all the stops ABOVE this time on the way up - to the top of the triangle/surface - where they ate every last fish - before submerging again to the deep blue below - there to await the next ball/(triangle in our speak) before rising once more. Scary sh*t.

For newer members who are not used to the ways of Bitcoin and those who hunt it now would be a good time to learn some more of life in the raw.
This is a 3 minute R-rated video for fish.
It's scary as hell and with BBC sound effects ramped up to 11 it's a savage, visceral 180 seconds of mayhem as an entire bait ball gets taken apart.
We are the sardines in the story, in case you wondering where you fit in.

Moral here: triangles are potential baitballs - pros spot them as whales hear the commotion in the ocean building - same thing.
Bait-Balls and triangles. If in the right spot they are the same thing and the fish in the middle get ragged whichever way they turn - to just above the last high at the top and just below the low at the bottom - every stop gone - both sides.

Now that was slick. Mean. But slick

Also we should start a library of must-see videos for newer traders.
Thomas !
If any experienced trader has a video in mind that they found ultra helpful please share here too.
Maybe Thomas can pull them all together in one spot Chart-Attack Videos Library?

Here's 2 scary ones to kick it off:

Please only the most instructive videos you have ever seen about trading Bitcoin or trading psychology in general - then we build something valuable for all.

Bait Ball

And v2 Whale attack
youtube.com/watch?v=6zOarcL1BSc

Bitcoin

Spent the last hour or recovering off the line at 6600 on Bitstamp.

It should fall away further once 6600 gives way - short it but be careful in case it doesn't fall away as it should - spike lower and back above 6600 will be first sign of a fake a out - so beware today.
Lower stop to just above

Sorry - live feed lost -
here for Bitstamp
tradingview.com/chart/RTVNhZ31/

Bitcoin Near term
Neutral inside the box it's in now - though ultimately bearish (upward sloping pattern which counter- intuitively sucks novice traders long - and is a good example of how what looks bullish often isn't and why 80-90% of newer traders lose money -to the other 10-20%.

If newer this is an up-side down world where counter-inuition works best. If intuition worked best most of the time then we'd all be sat on the beach now, with a laptop and a margharita.

Anyway, this is bearish still but not aggressively so - more mind games and fake outs likely but it can still try for a last rally yet - so long as the lower rising parallel it's testing now can hold up...but ultimately it's going to break lower.

It's just done it! Mofo!!!

Sorry - updated chart here

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Note

Further Bitcoin Updates today and Dow Jones Comment because it's interesting, at least if you like charts

In a range below structure to left - negative below the falling dynamic - nearterm positive to 6661 only if it can break that line at 6630 on Coinbase and then hold it on retests
Has to break above 6667 to add longs from there to 6748 minimum and to 6849 maximum. Stop if triggered below 6640.
Until then Bitcoin is still vulnerable - with a minor double top above it and ultimately liable to break lower later, if not sooner.

Try to run stops behind positions so any trade triggered in near term causes minimal damage if it's a false break - bots will be messing here - the triangle shows the bait ball has reassembled.
Newbies please watch this one - and experienced traders beware !

Something is about give...

Support levels clearest on BFX today so far - bang on 6500 here.
Has to break below here by 10 points to move aggressively short again - weak under the dynamic - near term double bottom and double top - range and break levels look quite well defined here once more.

Bitfinex Chart Update

Dow Jones DJI
Probing important near term support at 24100-24035.
Any break below 2400 will likely lead to further selling pressure back to 23613-23523 range and then 23349

Dow Longer Term

Dow Daily
4 gears up, ending in near vertical

Dow
4th and final gear re-examined - nice exit - from START to near finish

Technicals rock
Fundamentals play catch up

Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Dividing line at 6610 which is so clear and a little spooky - messing with heads again - range narrowing before an eventual pop. Upside from 6610 looks to be 35-55 points and downside 50 to 100 down to 6500.

Can pop quickly due to so many stops being close by either side of price .

It gets exciting again on downside when 6500 breaks looking for 6140 minimum and maybe a lot more too.

And on upside any rally from here is likely to be capped at 6665 at the best and more likely at the 6644 line, that's if it can find buyers enough to push it above 6610 now.
It has to push above 6666 and hold above 6644 on any restest after that to think about a counter rally long this weekend coming.

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Note

Bitcoin Coinbase
Not a good pattern for bulls here so far - a short once it loses the little dynamic under price now.
Must then break below 6575-6562 to show we have a decent decline beginning - if it halts there the game goes on a while longer yet, but is likley to crack at some point
Can push higher in meantime trying to flip stops....treacherous seas right now, for sure.
The kind of seas only kite surfers play in.

Was writing that when it flipped higher so too late - but it's still messing big-time - treacherous, as above ! - before heading lower - rejection spike on 5 minute Bitstamp but it will still try to push higher for a while yet most likely.

Bitstamp Spike

Bitcoin Bitstamp: Fractal ish
The pattern marked by arrow at top is similar to pattern at the lower arrow.
The rallies only carry to the secondary high....can push higher to make the pips squeak of any remaining shorts up to 6644 line but not much higher really if the pattern is to stay good from here...

sumastardon

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