2024-11-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin - Almost 10% correction now. How many bulls bought above 95k for 100k and have their stop below 90k ? My guess is a lot. I still think this is just the usual liquidity grap before another big move up. 87k - 93k is a dead zone for me. We have support with the previous pause around 87k and daily 20ema at 89k. If you see strong buying with follow through, you have to get long if you want to see the 100k. Below 85k I think it’s not unlikely that we crash down to 70k and say goodbye to 100k for a couple of years.
comment: I think the selling gets weaker and bears could soon disappear again. The bear channel looks good so far but every new low is heavily bought and that can continue for only so long.
current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above 85000.
key levels: 85000 - 100.000
bull case: Bulls need a reversal soon or this might accelerate. They are buying new lows and the pullbacks higher are 2000+ points. Tomorrow or latest Thursday we will either see an acceleration down or finally the big move to print 100k and probably some above. Biggest problem for bulls is the confirmation. It’s only above 94600 and that’s pretty far away from 91000. Can you long this at 92000? Sure but do you put your stop at 90000? 89000? I think the risk is too big that this get’s tested as well. As always, have a trade with bigger risk and higher probability or the other way around. Always comes down to preference.
Invalidation is below 85000.
bear case: Bears are decent in selling the 1h 20ema and every rip. How long can they continue? I don’t know. Pullbacks from the selling are getting bigger and stronger. I doubt we see another strong bearish day tomorrow. Bears have to cover above 95000 and above that we see an acceleration upwards. Below 90000 bears might get cocky. If you look at the daily chart, it’s still just a minor pullback to the daily 20ema. The gigantic bull gap from 73800 to 87500 is open and won’t likely be closed the first time we get down to 87500 again.
Invalidation is above 110.000.
short term: Still think it’s bullish but I need strong confirmation now. Max bearish below 85000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you fucking cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: Shorts will go brrrr soon.
trade of the day: Shorting near the 1h 20ema or 94000 was decent.
tl;dr
bitcoin - Almost 10% correction now. How many bulls bought above 95k for 100k and have their stop below 90k ? My guess is a lot. I still think this is just the usual liquidity grap before another big move up. 87k - 93k is a dead zone for me. We have support with the previous pause around 87k and daily 20ema at 89k. If you see strong buying with follow through, you have to get long if you want to see the 100k. Below 85k I think it’s not unlikely that we crash down to 70k and say goodbye to 100k for a couple of years.
comment: I think the selling gets weaker and bears could soon disappear again. The bear channel looks good so far but every new low is heavily bought and that can continue for only so long.
current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above 85000.
key levels: 85000 - 100.000
bull case: Bulls need a reversal soon or this might accelerate. They are buying new lows and the pullbacks higher are 2000+ points. Tomorrow or latest Thursday we will either see an acceleration down or finally the big move to print 100k and probably some above. Biggest problem for bulls is the confirmation. It’s only above 94600 and that’s pretty far away from 91000. Can you long this at 92000? Sure but do you put your stop at 90000? 89000? I think the risk is too big that this get’s tested as well. As always, have a trade with bigger risk and higher probability or the other way around. Always comes down to preference.
Invalidation is below 85000.
bear case: Bears are decent in selling the 1h 20ema and every rip. How long can they continue? I don’t know. Pullbacks from the selling are getting bigger and stronger. I doubt we see another strong bearish day tomorrow. Bears have to cover above 95000 and above that we see an acceleration upwards. Below 90000 bears might get cocky. If you look at the daily chart, it’s still just a minor pullback to the daily 20ema. The gigantic bull gap from 73800 to 87500 is open and won’t likely be closed the first time we get down to 87500 again.
Invalidation is above 110.000.
short term: Still think it’s bullish but I need strong confirmation now. Max bearish below 85000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you fucking cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: Shorts will go brrrr soon.
trade of the day: Shorting near the 1h 20ema or 94000 was decent.
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