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comment: Can’t be anything but bullish. Nothing changed so this bias did not change either. Bulls were so strong that we have corrected sideways in a tight range for 9 days now and if bears can’t even print one decent bear bar after such a rally, bears are doing absolutely nothing and the correction is mostly from bulls taking profits. We can only expect higher prices until bears come around with much bigger selling pressure. Targets above are obvious, new ath above 109396 and then the big bull trend line around 113000.
current market cycle: weekly time frame is in a bull trend inside a big bull wedge - daily time frame is in a tight bull channel
key levels: 95k - 115k
bull case: Upside will likely be limited to something below 120000 but bulls are in full control until we print below a higher low again. Bulls want 110000 and then some. It’s a clear bull wedge and longs above 100000 are tough because stop has to be at least 97000. Market has moved sideways enough to expect another leg up any day now.
Invalidation is below 97000.
bear case: Bears can only have hope that we will still find no acceptance above 100000 on the weekly & monthly time frames and once we get the spike to 110000 we will turn again. I printed the monthly chart because it shows the tails above 100000 and that we are in the retest of the previous ath, which is the same structure as we did in 2021. As of now, bears have nothing going for them until we actually turn again. I still heavily favor the bears to print below 80000 this year but right now you should not look for shorts.
Invalidation is above 112000.
short term: Bullish but buying at the very top is tough. Any long 100000 or 98000 is likely good, if it’s not during a crazy strong bear spike. New ath or something close is expected.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: I expect a trading range 700000 - 100000 for longer. The current move above 100000 I see as a retest of the ath and it could overshoot but I doubt market can find acceptance there for longer. Only interested in shorts on anything above the 1h time frame.
comment: Can’t be anything but bullish. Nothing changed so this bias did not change either. Bulls were so strong that we have corrected sideways in a tight range for 9 days now and if bears can’t even print one decent bear bar after such a rally, bears are doing absolutely nothing and the correction is mostly from bulls taking profits. We can only expect higher prices until bears come around with much bigger selling pressure. Targets above are obvious, new ath above 109396 and then the big bull trend line around 113000.
current market cycle: weekly time frame is in a bull trend inside a big bull wedge - daily time frame is in a tight bull channel
key levels: 95k - 115k
bull case: Upside will likely be limited to something below 120000 but bulls are in full control until we print below a higher low again. Bulls want 110000 and then some. It’s a clear bull wedge and longs above 100000 are tough because stop has to be at least 97000. Market has moved sideways enough to expect another leg up any day now.
Invalidation is below 97000.
bear case: Bears can only have hope that we will still find no acceptance above 100000 on the weekly & monthly time frames and once we get the spike to 110000 we will turn again. I printed the monthly chart because it shows the tails above 100000 and that we are in the retest of the previous ath, which is the same structure as we did in 2021. As of now, bears have nothing going for them until we actually turn again. I still heavily favor the bears to print below 80000 this year but right now you should not look for shorts.
Invalidation is above 112000.
short term: Bullish but buying at the very top is tough. Any long 100000 or 98000 is likely good, if it’s not during a crazy strong bear spike. New ath or something close is expected.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: I expect a trading range 700000 - 100000 for longer. The current move above 100000 I see as a retest of the ath and it could overshoot but I doubt market can find acceptance there for longer. Only interested in shorts on anything above the 1h time frame.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.