Ive had a number of comments about what I think will happen with the ETF, primarily because if it were to be accepted / approved I have mentioned that I think that it will mean we have seen the bottom already.
I played the previous ETF announcement very well (link attached) and I anticipate a similar level of relative hype could occur.
The situation isn’t hugely different to 2017 – we were in a state of consolidation having made new all-time highs followed by a large amount of China bans bitcoin FUD.
We had a Head and shoulders pattern at the bottom, which we proceeded to break out of and realise the full measured move, following which there was an expected sell off and then a final panic speculative push to find new all-time highs at +40% from the breakout, which was subsequently fully retraced to the breakout.
Today we are presented with a shorter timeframe but with a Head and shoulders bottom. Should we break out of this, it would seem reasonable to me to expect us to realise the measured move of c.$7.5-7.7k, which I have been expecting as a mid-term upside for some time. This also coincides with the first level of horizontal resistance and the heavy level of diagonal resistance. As such I believe this area to be a good region to speculate for if we can break out of the Head and Shoulders with conviction Volume.
A similar move to the +40% as in prior year would take BTC up towards 9.5k, but unlike last time we have fallen further and harder from our last experience of this hype so I would see this as a very stretched target given the time frame and the fact that we have more people active with short interest and the vehicles to deliver the shorts. It might be worth a look at this but it would all have to happen very fast. Possible but improbable.
On that actual decision itself, this Is the only thing which could change my mid-term view from being bearish. If it is approved, I have no doubt that we would see new all-time highs by the end of the year.
Failing that, however far the speculation runs, I would expect us to return to eactly where we are now at c. 6.7k.
This time, ironically the thing which is currently hurting us (the Futures) could be what has legitimised the ETF decision to some extent.
The unwinding of short positions coupled with genuine speculation frenzy would be the sort of thing which helps with insane bull runs.
Either way, I still expect the bull run, its just a matter of when.
FILBFILB