Bitcoin. Possible reversal spotted.

Updated

Good, good.
Everything is going according to my evil plan.

Bitcoin move is consistent with the scenario:
Go up bubble style, crash more than 50%, bounce hard, period of uncertainty/consolidation, revisit the lows, continue previous uptrend.
But if this is it, it just went so fast... crazy. We can also see looking at volume that since 20k several million Bitcoins got sold, this is good enough to go up.
We don't NEED to fall to 3000$ and sell 10 million BTC. Selling a couple millions on the way down to 6k then again on the crash from 11700,
then the last few millions the herd bought at 13-17k if we go there in the next weeks, that would be the capitulation.
And we would be ready to go back in an uptrend, all the way to the "biggest bubble of all times". Again (cringe).

If it continues to go up, it's going to approach a heavy resistance with pretty overbought status (4HR RSI should be high),
so either it rejects it and we can short then re go long on support, or it goes well above then falls and tests the downtrend resistance as support.
We'll have to look at many indicators when we get there, the most important one being RSI, works so well.

A big big thing to look at is this dark evil circle, it is awesome, if we are close to it around the 1rst April, it's going to be the free-est trade ever.
Short if we're below it, long if we're above.

It's early to do anything safely, so we'll have to look at everything in the next days.

It's a possibility we go do this:

Another thing I'll be watching for confirmation will be the Guppy lines:

If you want to trade short moves, you could go long at 8850 aiming for 10k, but the odds aren't 99%.
Otherwise, it will take more confirmation, need to go above all these resistances and test them as support and close above. Then the odds of going up will be super high.

I believe in FOREX the best is to aim for 55-60% hit rate and 3:1 RR or more then to victory you go.
In stock, better aim for 75% hit rate or more, go in big always, hold positions a long time.
But in crypto, seems to me you have the choice :D <3 Awesome!

There's a good chance we end the month in a monthly inside bar. I'll post about that if it happens. Would be pretty huge.

+++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). I only post for trollertainment. Trade at your own risk +++

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Bitcoin still in a channel to victory. If we stay in this we reach the correction "last" resistance in 4 days.

On the daily Tufin seems to be fighting a new resistance level that has been created the past days as well as EMA200.
It has so many obstacles, can it stay in the victory channel till the pink line?

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I don't think the support will hold forever...

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Still hasn't fallen.
Reminder: falling wedge target is at 9500 (the MA50 daily is also somewhere around here) which also happens to be 0.5 fibo since the start of "the crash".
10000 is where the log downtrend is at now and it's 0.618 fibo.
Don't be an idiot don't lose track of this, don't fall for hype and FOMO.
Don't think a single TV author showed this lol. They're entertaining.
0.5 offers the best odds always, 0.618 the best risk:reward.
Let's see what happens in the next days, maybe we get offered a golden opportunity.

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Moved violently down. Doesn't mean it's not on its way to 9500$
I'm holding till then unless we retrace too much.

10 days till the 1rst April where all the resistances/supports converge and we get awesome entries (unless we're 3000$ away)..

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Stop loss set on Binance if we fall below 8600, would be more than 0.618 retrace on last impulse up, don't like these odds.
On Kraken where I got most of my BTC, I dont really want to set a stop loss, all they got is market sells, I know what happened with ETH... I don't feel like selling my BTC for 10$. Nah I'll sell manually. I'd rather the price drops 400$ before I can sell than get scammed selling a bitcoin for 10$

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Still in the uptrend channel to victory.
Would be amazing if we simply are headed for the evil circle of doom where all the resistance converge.

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Nothing special happening... Going to take a couple of days to get to the circle.

Also, crypto total market cap is in the same situation hehehe:
media.discordapp.net/attachments/379404295210008577/426485672921268235/BREAKOUT_.png

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B wave typically retraces to ... I don''t remember, is it to the top of wave 4?
There 21 types of ABC... can't remmeber all this crap...

More likely we're in an ABC than 12345 seriously.
In EW 12345===>
Wave 2 highest probability retraces is 0.386 in STOCK.
Wave 2 is TWICE as likely to go 0.386 than 0.618 in STOCK.
Wave 2 typically goes to 0.618 in FOREX (lol rekt)
Wave 2 in CRYPTO... I have no idea hehehe.

Wave 4 is the "opposite" of wave 2. Wave 2 sharp = Wave 4 flat, etc.

There's tons of stuff to know on this, some are 100% solid, some are "this usually happens" but not all the time.
It's all useful, and also everything fits my my evil plan :)
Going to 9500 then another 12345 down trust me :) 99.9% sure of this.

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Looks like wave B ended at 0.382 fibo of previous wave 4 (or it could not be over)...
Illuminati? I'm sure I saw a stat that said that's what's most likely somewhere...

Watch out for the triangle and we do'nt go all the way to 9500...
elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm
Nah my death star is too beautiful, it HAS to get attracted like a magnet!

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When we actually go up, people won't be in long. But I will... I am the chosen one I realised.

From elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/:
Wave 1: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts

Wave 2: In Elliott Wave Theory, wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and “the crowd” haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern

And then wave 3 explodes up...

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I already made an update with the 2 possibilities for the end of the month.
My last posts are about evil plan #1.
Here is evil plan #2 in more details.
Just trying to figure out how it could look, but it's more for fighting the boredom than anything, all that will matter is where we are relative to the death star in the next 5-10 days.

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30 min inside candle pretty close to breaking bearish.
I prefer my evil plan 2 because it means something will happen before the 1rst April, I don't feel like waiting 10 days...aaah

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Not sure where to start the fibo exactly, but whether I start it at the very bottom or the start of the strong impulse up, the result is about the same everytime, we retraced and bounced on fibo 0.236 0.382 and 0.5, we might go to 0.618 next (~8000$) and if we do, this week end, I'm day trading this on Bitmex with high leverage (on top of the position I'm holding on Kraken since 7400$).
0.5 might be the bottom where we go to 9500, 0.618 might not happen and no fun for this evil guy :(

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Start of a dump to 0.618? :}

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Let's do this! been waiting for a while, only about 5 days left till we get to my magical circle :)

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No surprise so far.

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If the whales want to pump the price before crashing it like last time when people got all excited, they'd have to pump it the 29 March basically.
And the price would need to remain above 8000$ till then. So either fall slwoly, or fall in 1 day, go up, fall again and then get pumped.
BTC moved very slowly the past 5 days or more, so it should be easy to get there doing nothing, but even if we move "too fast" I trust the whales to do what's necessary to buy time :) As they always do and will always do since people would fall for it 5000 times from their birth to their death.

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If it doesn't bounce here the other possibility will be going to 7700$.

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1HR RSI almost at 20... 15 minute below that, 5 minute at 30 with some kind of bullish divergence I think. Let's bounce soon! Shouldn't go much lower really...

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I went out 15 minutes and the price flash crashed.
So BTC bounced on every fibo level except the one I day traded and I got liquidated again, last day trade was at 10k when the FUD news hit after being absent for several weeks.
Doesn't matter because with the kind of luck I have I knew I should only risk very little.
To sum up these past months every single move I didn't day trade went as expected and I missed out and every single move I day traded flash crashed.
Quite an amazing feat to be so unlucky.
And I still manage to grow my account more than 50% a month.

Rules to scalp or day trade:
- Trade every single move
- Don't trade at all
Otherwise only luck decides the outcome, might as well play roulette.
You might think continuing to trade small moves over and over will make the luck factor disappear and it will even out, but you have to be able to manage your trades, not possible with a day job.

Now we're having serious bullish divergence:

Watching this line:

I'm trying to figure how the whales would pump the price without going to 9500 before the 31 March and without dropping before that. Maybe the price slowly reverses as its supposed to, we go up a few hundreds, then start slowly going down by wednesday, and friday or the day before the whale pumps the price so he can dump at 9k+.

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When I conquered the galaxy I was patient and it took years of manipulation.

Why can't I be one of the idiots that was at the right time in the right place and luck out? :(

Well a great gifted mind cannot be lucky I guess, that's how it works.

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Comparing stuff...

Number everywhere! I need more space!

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I feel like predicting the future. I'm done, I'm never using stop losses or tight liquidation prices again. "Gurus" keep saying "use stop losses" but that doesn't apply to me, I never lose money if I don't use stop losses, only a tip for strugglers with no hands.

2014:
Crash 1: -54%
Bounce 1: 84%
Crash 2: -61%
Bounce 2: 160%
Loooong drawn out crash 3: -60%
Bounce 3: 79%

2018:
Crash 1: -46%
Bounce 1: 61%
Crash 2: -65%
Bounce 2: 96%
Crash 3 if we go to 5k = 57%
Bounce 3 speculation 65% of 79% ==> ~50% -> 7500$

2018 bounces ~ 2/3 of 2014
2018 crashes within 15% of 2014

Let's get a nice retard magnet at 9500$ like the 11 or 12 March when it went up to 9900$ before crashing down, I need a good entry. Don't want to open a short at 8000$, I need at least 9k.

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If the pump goes on, we can realistically go into the juiciest short zone in my entire life by the 30-31 March everything would fit perfectly just pure perfection.
Considering it would take slightly more time and go slightly less high than last time a few days ago, since people just fell for it such a short while ago they're bound to not fall for it as much, they WILL always fall for the same BS they always do, but when they get scammed so recently, it's not possible to scam them as hard, just slightly less hard.

We have to go to that circle, it's just too beautiful not to happen.

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What's stopping the Tether people from exit scamming?
They obviously have the billions it's really stupid to think they don't have the money, 0 risk there.
But what if they decide to go to some african country with a dictator, give 1 million a year to the dictator + 1 million a year to an old timer high rank general that can protect them, and good luck to crypto enthusiasts nerds getting to them.

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Looked at 4HR to draw the lines a bit more precisely. that pushes the moment everything intersects by about 24 hours.

The new person manipulating the price, it's not the typical whales, I don't think it's the exchanges which are mega whales the biggest there are, I think it's someone new, one of these hedge fund managers that are used to manipulate the price for a living. I mean, when they play fair they get outperformed by blind monkeys as research has proven, so they have to use their large sums of money to get an hedge (hohoho).

How do I call this guy/group? The only living things bigger than whales are fungus or trees thousands of years old...
Call him super fungus parasite?

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And again bullish divergence. On a larger TF now.

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If the bull divergence makes it go up a bit this buys time, 2-3 days are needed before a pump if we go for the epic scenario.
Something like this:

Giant fungus won't want to pass out this opportunity will he?
Just too good...

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Since there's several supports below our feet it won't be that hard to hold 3 days before pumping. BTC NEVER just loses a trendline like this (and there's 2 of them) instant without fighting it for a while first. Remember what happened last time?
Would be a first if we just fall this time...One can only be so unlucky if it doesn't happen this time I'll admit it's not just bad luck. It's god himself intervening ;)

This is what happened with last trendline (since March one):

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Zooming in the 11 March retard magnet that brought the price to 9900$ when so many people were euphoric right before getting crushed. Sad I can't look at 1 minute, I probably have it in one of my updates back then thought.

I am taking the subway every day almost, and every single time people are in a hurry to get in, so they get in front of the doors block the people going out due to being complete idiots, making them go out much more slowly, which in turn makes the people wanting to get in quick waste 10-30 seconds and get in later. EVERY SINGLE TIME. They NEVER learn. Day after day after year THEIR WHOLE LIFE. Yes, people are this stupid.

This is why the price will get pumped and complete idiots will fall for it again, as they always do.

I'll check what the "legend" analysts with thousands of followers say here also, watching what the mini herds are doing gives a preview of what THE HERD is doing or going to do.
Oh shit that's probably why the LEGEND has so many followers, because he bad af.
People just looking for what the herd is doing.

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1HR inside candle went super sayan

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A doji, buying more time...
Oooooh I don't want to wait till Sunday for a pump.
I should be thankful but why did I have to hear so late about a magical way to make 6-7 figures easy called trading?
Wasting 15 years of your life going to school with moron strugglers trying their best to make single digit additions without their fingers or needing 3 months to learn the alphabet is obligatory, but why did I have to waste more than this?
A total waste, all this time spent in school I was FORCED to go to was totally useless. Could have chilled went around the world and learned all the pointless garbage - I already forgot and don't care about - on google in a few days...
The physics I would learn for curiosity purposes on google and the maths, what I ddin't figure myself I'd learn on google in a couple of days -.-
15 years of school * 200 day * 10 hours a day wasted at that place = 30000 hours.
30 THOUSAND hours of waiting for the pointless day to end. Waiting waiting more waiting. At least it taught patience...
One could argue I should be thankful I can take advantage of idiots to get rich.
But in a world without idiots there would be no waste of time in the first place!

Be patient, wait for the good entries, and then rob morons of all their money, take as much as you can they are a plague and their wallets should be emptied.
Take all the money you can, so you may live your life as you intend to and not the way it was designed by the herd of 2 digit IQ strugglers and their incredibly retarded nonsense rules and "good manners good habits".

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Made an epic Elliot Wave count. 10/10 what a master.

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Excavo published a nice idea.

New people coming to trading view... on the home page you see the daily top authors, it's full of random people that have no idea what they're doing...I wonder if it's done on purpose to bait the herd? XD Let's do like them australian and thin out the herd with snipers!
Come on there's a guy calling for 100k in a couple of months he keeps calling for the moon...
Did I know better when I first came to this site?

The guarenteed good authors are in the all time top (more or less), for crypto you got Excavo DLavrov TomHall Alanmaster.
They proved themselves not some disabled kid that makes random stupid calls and repeats how right he was when he lucks out lol.

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Now I understand how kids feel when they wait for father christmas.
To kill time I pass the mouse over the little triangles on this post that show my previous ideas and watch I was right every single time, feels pretty good.

We have to break out of this channel at some point.... (like we broke out of the previous ones):

We're consolidated in a 8 hour inside candle, lol that's so rare for a thuesday, crypto is dead confirmed.

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12HR inside candle set. Getting closer to a trade opportunity, whatever that might be (short up there or long down there).
We WILL get an inside month as I pointed out a few times a while ago, and just like I shorted at 9280 inside week bar bear break (closed at 7400), if we bear break below the inside month at 6k I will short and make a KILLING.

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Reminder of how the weekly inside candle played out. I was quite excited about it with good reason.

Gains are pretty good, but with a monthly inside candle I'd expect AMAZING INCREDIBLE GODLIKE profit.
Only problem is it could take quite a while....
In 2014-2016 the candle lasted 2-3 years -.- but when it broke 900$ to 19800 GG
Took more than a year to reach target thought XD
Won't last as long this time.

Looking at inside months that lasted less long:

These inside months are more for long term accumulation bore mode not short term trading. I hope we don't have to wait long like this this time...
It has to break bearish in April and rush 20% down at least this very month.

But maybe if BTC goes into extreme bore mode, the alts will start living their life like they often do (as they did in January for example), that would be awesome.
Rly hope the whole crypto doesn't go in bore mode.
Scared wittle investors would probably love it just like they would love to hide under their bed forever.

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March the 29 afternoon, getting really close to christmas day.
I caaaaaaan't wait.
I wonder what present father christmas got me? ^^
I'll be happy with anything but please let it be 9k BTC

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Evil plan revived! Only took 1000000000000 years.
Area's going to be somewhere 7366-8600 now thought.
Waiting to see how it goes next hours then drawing something.
Unless it actually crashes in the next hours, that fast.
People are actually hyped.
Not as much as 1 month ago, but a bit. Went up to 9900 + 16% last month, so if peasants are less excited, go up less than 16%?
7366 would be 13%
7050 only a small 8%
No way 8500 happens, but if it does ==> Godlike entry and risk to reward.

Oh and longing here = lottery. I posted a chart with all the supports and showed they get hith with low RSI all the time. Why would people try catching a pump when there's so many guarenteed opportunities lol. Absolutely retarded.
But well, that's why the price gets pumped in the first place.

So when the price gets crashed down people cry and panic sells and Okex goes and rollsback all transactions and gives some free stuff, but when it gets pumped before a dump everyone's so euphoric they gladly get anal and exchanges don't have to take any actions. Mkay. My brain is melting.

Can't wait to be a whale, I'll try joining the P&D club.

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Note to self: the chat opens itself and I keep seeing TRON everywhere.
I want to throw acid at my eyes.

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ROFL

Bitcoin delusional bulls are necessary to fill our short orders.

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1 year later, same story. Trendlines getting retested...
Horizontal support getting retested too?

MrRenev

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