Surfing BTC: Awaiting MACD pickup for quick trade
Updated
Technicals:
1. Seasonal minor peak
2. RSI is on the oversold side
3. MACD has been negative for more than 2 months
Trade:
1. Looking out for a rebound in MACD and exit
1. Seasonal minor peak
2. RSI is on the oversold side
3. MACD has been negative for more than 2 months
Trade:
1. Looking out for a rebound in MACD and exit
Note
Technicals:1. MACD did not go positive
2. BTC price remains curiously very weak cf Nasdaq 100
3. BTC may hopefully fall to around 25K
and rebound from there when RSI goes oversold
Action:
1. Continue to monitor for a breakout
Note
Technicals:1. MACD is at +/-1 going into this weekend
2. There is no clear indication which side it will breakout
Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling resolution impending within a week
2. Ukraine expecting counteroffensive within a week
3. Both of above have historically been BTC bullish
Action:
1. Cointinue to monitor for breakout (could be very soon)
Trade active
BTC: $27199Technicals:
1. Miniscule signal for MACD to +9
Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling in-principle announcement made
Action:
1. Entered 15 BTC at $27197
2. Trade is now active
Note
BTC: $27733Technicals:
1. MACD is positive and rising
2. Price action is still very weak
Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling must pass by 5 June (next monday) and all the theatrics ongoing
Analysis:
1. Trade probably needs to wait till after debt ceiling passes to see if it continues to move up or falls.
2. I feel that it could move to either $35 level, or not pass recent high of $31
3. In any case, I think the season will be over with this last trade, and downward movement all the way to the end of the year.
Action:
1. $27197 Buy Trade is still in play and active.
2. Position is currently +1.97%
Note
BTC: $26901Technicals:
1. MACD has made the first fall
2. Price action is extremely weak, the MACD uptick couldn't even muster 2 meaningful green days
Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling probably approved tonight
Analysis:
1. BTC has been staying at this level like a bad stench, refusing to make the move up for more than 2 months
2. The tide is turning for a downtrend till end of the year, however, there has been no FOMO event for years since 2018.
3. Closing the position may not mean anything with such low volatility
4. Compared to N100, BTC has not made the uptick, but yet is going down with it now
Action:
1. Trade still in play.
2. We will have to wait for 2nd down MACD. RSI is already moving down.
3. Position is currently -1.0%
Note
BTC: $27065Technicals:
1. MACD (daily) has kept on its very weak trend, below 0, and turning negative
2. This is totally out of nature to turn negative so quickly, reflecting the weakness of BTC
Fundamentals:
1. There was a miniscule spike up from the approval of the debt ceiling to above
27K2. There were strong payroll but no reaction from that
Action:
1. Trade still in play.
2. Fingers on the trigger, going down to 2h and 15m MACD for an exit
Trade closed manually
BTC: $27065Technicals:
1. 15m, 2h, 1D are all weakish, with very little upside (maybe up to 28k)
Analysis:
1. I felt that the downside risk is huge compared to upside, and with very weak price action, it is much better to exit this position
Action:
1. Closed position
Next Trade:
1. Looking for TQQQ entry (Trade idea 2023/4) at the end of June 2023.
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