I think the BTC low may be in. Have longs now.
Updated
I'm stilling holding my shorts on BTC from the highs made a few weeks ago but have my stops trailed tight on them and have some longs on now.
I think it's possible we're early in a sequence of events that will make a new high.
Marked in the main chart is a 76 retracement hold and a 61 retest. 76 retracement levels are common for trend continuation. 61 retests are also common and when the 76 holds and then the 61 holds a retest we have the first higher lows - which can be the foothills of the new uptrend.
The long here makes a lot of sense to me since I can further support my entry with a local 76 retracement holding for bulls. This may be the start of a local 15 minute chart uptrend and even if it's not it offers me a place to have a really tight stop to give me a high RR trade.
I think entries here have a fair chance of being able to at least get into breakeven. In a bearish setup here I'd expect to see the 76% retracement of the last downswing hit. If and when this level hits I can move my stops to even on my long positions and wait to see if the blue breakout path comes.
If the blue breakout path comes, we'll meet a critical inflection point when the possible bearish butterfly completes.
Success of this pattern would resume the downtrend, but if this pattern fails then there's an extremely strong chance we see new highs. All so often the failure of a butterfly in this type of setup leads to nothing but bad news for bears until a new high - at which point there may or may not be spike out patterns to short.
I have my stop losses for my shorts right above the bearish 76 fib spoken of. My plan is if that stop hits I'll move my buy stops to even and then I'll wait to see if we get the following breaks.
If the butterfly breaks - I'll be aggressive long looking for a new high.
In this type of setup I am almost certainly going to be looking to short some time after the new high, although that may not be until somewhere around the 80K range.
I think a bigger bear trade is coming, but things are liable to get really bad for bears if this 61 fib holds. It may prove to be the case there's a better short op later.
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Note - I should make it clear the downtrend has not failed at this point. It's technically healthy. But I'm a guy who's been short into the end of a lot of downtrend. There's a very common sequence of events that signals the end of a downtrend.
The 76 holds.
The 61 retest.
These have happened.
The 61 holds.
This is trying to happen.
Failure of the 76 bearish continuation.
This is tested a tiny bit higher.
Failure of the butterfly
Nothing good happens for bears after that.
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The trend is still technically fine, but we might have entered into this sequence of events that spell out a new high. Bears should be aware of the warning signs and not be stubborn if higher lows start to form on 15 min and above charts. It only takes a couple resistance breaks to make a new high the overwhelming likely move.
I think it's possible we're early in a sequence of events that will make a new high.
Marked in the main chart is a 76 retracement hold and a 61 retest. 76 retracement levels are common for trend continuation. 61 retests are also common and when the 76 holds and then the 61 holds a retest we have the first higher lows - which can be the foothills of the new uptrend.
The long here makes a lot of sense to me since I can further support my entry with a local 76 retracement holding for bulls. This may be the start of a local 15 minute chart uptrend and even if it's not it offers me a place to have a really tight stop to give me a high RR trade.
I think entries here have a fair chance of being able to at least get into breakeven. In a bearish setup here I'd expect to see the 76% retracement of the last downswing hit. If and when this level hits I can move my stops to even on my long positions and wait to see if the blue breakout path comes.
If the blue breakout path comes, we'll meet a critical inflection point when the possible bearish butterfly completes.
Success of this pattern would resume the downtrend, but if this pattern fails then there's an extremely strong chance we see new highs. All so often the failure of a butterfly in this type of setup leads to nothing but bad news for bears until a new high - at which point there may or may not be spike out patterns to short.
I have my stop losses for my shorts right above the bearish 76 fib spoken of. My plan is if that stop hits I'll move my buy stops to even and then I'll wait to see if we get the following breaks.
If the butterfly breaks - I'll be aggressive long looking for a new high.
In this type of setup I am almost certainly going to be looking to short some time after the new high, although that may not be until somewhere around the 80K range.
I think a bigger bear trade is coming, but things are liable to get really bad for bears if this 61 fib holds. It may prove to be the case there's a better short op later.
---
Note - I should make it clear the downtrend has not failed at this point. It's technically healthy. But I'm a guy who's been short into the end of a lot of downtrend. There's a very common sequence of events that signals the end of a downtrend.
The 76 holds.
The 61 retest.
These have happened.
The 61 holds.
This is trying to happen.
Failure of the 76 bearish continuation.
This is tested a tiny bit higher.
Failure of the butterfly
Nothing good happens for bears after that.
---
The trend is still technically fine, but we might have entered into this sequence of events that spell out a new high. Bears should be aware of the warning signs and not be stubborn if higher lows start to form on 15 min and above charts. It only takes a couple resistance breaks to make a new high the overwhelming likely move.
Note
BTC went up 1% so I'm back to brag. The low is still not not in. Obviously it's too early to read too much into anything but if the low was in, we'd now be able to make pretty good plans about the next resistance levels and levels that are likely to hit.
The more bearish of the two outlooks would be 85K. Hitting briefly and then round tripping as we reject the 1.61 fib.
The more bullish being able to break the 1.61 and extending to the following fibs. Perhaps slightly over 100K (And then round trip, me thinks - but I'm just like that).
Will update a bit more if the low continues to be in later. At this point I'd say if a low is in it'd be quite naive of bears to expect a high under 80,000 - a new high would likely equate to a strong blow off move even if the next swing was the last for the bull trend.
Starting to believe 100K is on the table. Entirely contingent on indices. But I can see a how indices may go into a blow off phase. In such an event SPX could trade a bit over 7,000 and if that happened it's be entirely fitting for BTC to trade briefly over 100,000.
Note
As per popular ideas consensus the bear setup is a lot more popular now. By and large looking for a fake out move lower to 50K from the looks of things. The formation of any new bear signal here to justify the switch in general sentiment is somewhat nominal. BTC has went down for weeks, okay. But it's not even made a new low yet. A lot of what we're seeing is really people who were too bullish at the high and through the drop pivoting.
And if you think the move is going to be something like this you sort of have to pivot to short bias here or you'll have been wrong for a very long time by the time the long comes.
Now - this isn't to say that's not a valid possible move. It is. It's just to note there are views largely pressure based from a solid sell off from a bullish bias high.
If you look at it from a purely neutral basis it'd be best to say this looks at worst 50/50 here and buying low in the range would not seem like a terrible idea.
If you look at it from the perspective of being short from higher prices then it's obvious to respect the risk of the lower range. If we downtrend (Lower highs) we can stay short but it's easy to see there are ways it might go bad for us in this areas and we want to make protective decisions, not new exposure decisions.
A lot of people are pivoting bear now because the downtrend surprised them and the big bear candle scared them.
It is a bearish looking candle. Might be important. But I'd honestly not be shocked at all if it was the low.
Moved frequently end in blazes of glory.
Note
Let's put it this way, in this candle all the selling pressure was there. Bears had everything you'd like to see in the setup for a big break. Perfectly fair game that we're just inside of a dead cat reaction from this. We might go sideways for a while and plummet. Like a a man hanging from a cliff - won't let go now, but will fall.
But if it's not that - then the bear setup just had it's moment to shine and clearly declined.
If whoever was selling in that big candle can't make a new low - maybe no one big enough is interested in doing so.
How this usually works is price drifts up for a while and then rockets. There never feels like a time that's not chasey to get on the trade.
Which is why I like to make the attempts on the support levels. At least I get cheap stops suitable out the way.
Note
This sell off can develop a bit more but does not threaten the up move for a while. I think a further drop is quite likely but there's good support lower if so.
Note
I'm suspicious this is going to end up ultimately trading lower but if we made a low around here and a strong spike this would be fitting of an impulse wave. We'd be in wave 4 now. Wave 5 would be the spike. Then a flash crash which is the load up spot.
Would sync up with a reaction of 64000 (Where I consider critical). Bear trap off that and then on the second break of that the real strong trend begins.
See the updates in this thread for previous mentions of why 64000 I think is the critical make or break level.
Note
I'd be careful with longs again here. Could make a crash move to fill the mentioned support. Looks quite sketchy for it.Fast drop and failure to make a new low would be really good for bull case. A drop isn't bad here at all so long as the low does not break.
Note
I feel about 8/10 sure we're going to see the dip fill today. (Don't read too much into those odds, it means I'll be 100% wrong 20% of the time ... I'm just saying the setup looks likely).
Limit orders set for the dip/rip trade now at 61,500.
Note
The move forecast here would be Elliot. And as such, if we're going to see the 61,500 fill it will be in a short term capitulation leg. C legs are crashes. On a chart like this, they're little - on a monthly chart they're headline events, but both are the same tendency.
If I were a guessing man, I'd say the ideal narrative for this would be a crash drop during the Fed talk today and support being found in that.
One of the classic dump and pumps we've seen many times on news.
But the key take away here is if the bull setup is coming, we actually want to see some short term "Blood in the streets".
After that move is in, it's in. We can then follow the trend. Until it's in, it's a risk we have to be aware of.
Note
Now we're cooking. This was the first thing I wanted to see. Let's see if we can check off the other markers now.
Note
Getting ready to start to load up soon. Trade active
I'm in now. Note
It will be kinda ironic if I end up doing a better job of the low of this move than the scores of people who spammed my bearish posts at the high telling me to ignore my strats and do their thing.Note
Bleh should have just waited. Ended up filling all limit levels. Note
Trying again now. Will do updates on the new thread if trade develops. 
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