🔥 Comparing Bitcoin Pre-Halving Years: What Can We Learn?
Scope of the analysis
In this analysis I want to take a look at the performance of Bitcoin in the years before the halving: 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 (thus far).
The assumption is that we can forecast potential future price action by looking at the historical data. Keep in mind that we have a limited dataset with data from a different macro-economic period, so deviations are to be expected.
Outlier 2011
As we can see on the chart, 2011 saw massive gains at the start, and a big sell-off at the end of the year. The gains early on were so big that it didn't fit on the screen, so I manually adjusted the scope for it to fit.
The point is not to look at the starting value versus the ending value, the point of this analysis is to look at the overall direction of the market.
Findings
We can quickly see that every pre-halving year had almost equal amounts of bullish and bearish periods, with the bullish period generally being early in the year.
Furthermore, for 2/3 years on the chart, the yearly high was made in the period from June to July (red hammers). In 2015 we had BTC make a top in July, but this was not the yearly high. We could simply extrapolate this finding to 2023 and assume that we will make a yearly high somewhere in July-August.
When looking at this data in a vacuum, we could say that BTC is likely going to make a yearly top in the next few weeks.
Do you think BTC is going to top this year soon? Why not? Share your thoughts below 🙏
In this analysis I want to take a look at the performance of Bitcoin in the years before the halving: 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 (thus far).
The assumption is that we can forecast potential future price action by looking at the historical data. Keep in mind that we have a limited dataset with data from a different macro-economic period, so deviations are to be expected.
Outlier 2011
As we can see on the chart, 2011 saw massive gains at the start, and a big sell-off at the end of the year. The gains early on were so big that it didn't fit on the screen, so I manually adjusted the scope for it to fit.
The point is not to look at the starting value versus the ending value, the point of this analysis is to look at the overall direction of the market.
Findings
We can quickly see that every pre-halving year had almost equal amounts of bullish and bearish periods, with the bullish period generally being early in the year.
Furthermore, for 2/3 years on the chart, the yearly high was made in the period from June to July (red hammers). In 2015 we had BTC make a top in July, but this was not the yearly high. We could simply extrapolate this finding to 2023 and assume that we will make a yearly high somewhere in July-August.
When looking at this data in a vacuum, we could say that BTC is likely going to make a yearly top in the next few weeks.
Do you think BTC is going to top this year soon? Why not? Share your thoughts below 🙏
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