BTC scenarios for own playbook
Updated
Just documenting own thoughts.
Statistically halving date price has been after cycle bottom between relief rally top and higher low (with current setup it would be around 26k).
Next BTC halving on 26th of April 24'.
US BTC SPOT ETF approval is one of the biggest triggers to follow. It will either spark the Green Option if it happens rather soon OR then it will be the trigger that turns the tide with the Red Option.
ETH could change everything by moving from Prince to King and stepping over BTC. Will it happen during the next cycle.. that's something I don't even dare to guess.
It's good to note that at this point majority of Indicators and oscillators are pointing down AND there has been a good run up YTD with BTC. While there definitely would be a lot of reasons to visit on the downside before running up towards halving date.. BTC does have the tendency to surprise us when least expected.
My own percentages for the different scenarios would go like this:
1. Option 1. (RED) 40%
2. Option 2. (GREEN) 20%
3. Something else. 40%*
*Either mixing the options (30%) OR moonshot from here (5%) OR thru the bottom (5%)
Statistically halving date price has been after cycle bottom between relief rally top and higher low (with current setup it would be around 26k).
Next BTC halving on 26th of April 24'.
US BTC SPOT ETF approval is one of the biggest triggers to follow. It will either spark the Green Option if it happens rather soon OR then it will be the trigger that turns the tide with the Red Option.
ETH could change everything by moving from Prince to King and stepping over BTC. Will it happen during the next cycle.. that's something I don't even dare to guess.
It's good to note that at this point majority of Indicators and oscillators are pointing down AND there has been a good run up YTD with BTC. While there definitely would be a lot of reasons to visit on the downside before running up towards halving date.. BTC does have the tendency to surprise us when least expected.
My own percentages for the different scenarios would go like this:
1. Option 1. (RED) 40%
2. Option 2. (GREEN) 20%
3. Something else. 40%*
*Either mixing the options (30%) OR moonshot from here (5%) OR thru the bottom (5%)
Comment
We are clearly closing in for surging one way or the other.26k is currently acting as a support and we are waiting for the trigger that sets off the next phase.
Only thing that is certain is volatility.
I would add the Binance legal topics as well as FTX selloff to the list of triggers.
There seems to be a mini-alt-season while BTC is making the big call.
Personally it would be a lot easier to make decisions if price of BTC surged downwards.
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