BitcoinLong
Attempt to get over 8000
Updated
Bitcoin continued to consolidate above 4H/5H M/BB and weekly EMA50 to overcome the resistance at 7700-7800, which is now set by daily SMA/EMA20 or in other words by daily M/BB (because weekly SMA50 shifted from 7700 to 7850). Now it is clear that this consolidation allowed us to go up to 7700, and to touch daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800. Let's analyze the further possible movements.
4H/5H TIs are in the "buy" zone, except for Williams, StochRSI (which are "overbought"), so technically we can expect a very small decline to 7650, and then re-pressurize to daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800.
Daily TIs is mostly neutral, and at the same time form a positive projection: Williams=-56, RSI=45, DMI=30, MACD=-295, only StochRSI is approaching overbought. Based on daily TIs, we can expect testing up also daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800, with possible growth up to weekly SMA50 = 7850.
Daily EMA5 strive to cross up daily EMA10, with a projection towards daily EMA20. Also the daily SMA50 strives to cross up the daily SMA100. Daily MACD was fixed above the signal line. So we can expect growth up to weekly SMA50 = 7850. On the other hand, weekly SMA/EMA and MACD point to a possible continuation of down fall.
Given the combination of TIs and MAs, I assume that bitcoin (after minor consolidation at 7600-7700 level) can re-test daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800. It is important that in this case daily SMA20 (in other words daily M/BB) has a downward trend that could have a significant resistance to the growth of bitcoin, even to the impossibility of breaking up this point without more deep consolidation.
Take care of your BTC and USD.
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4H/5H TIs are in the "buy" zone, except for Williams, StochRSI (which are "overbought"), so technically we can expect a very small decline to 7650, and then re-pressurize to daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800.
Daily TIs is mostly neutral, and at the same time form a positive projection: Williams=-56, RSI=45, DMI=30, MACD=-295, only StochRSI is approaching overbought. Based on daily TIs, we can expect testing up also daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800, with possible growth up to weekly SMA50 = 7850.
Daily EMA5 strive to cross up daily EMA10, with a projection towards daily EMA20. Also the daily SMA50 strives to cross up the daily SMA100. Daily MACD was fixed above the signal line. So we can expect growth up to weekly SMA50 = 7850. On the other hand, weekly SMA/EMA and MACD point to a possible continuation of down fall.
Given the combination of TIs and MAs, I assume that bitcoin (after minor consolidation at 7600-7700 level) can re-test daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800. It is important that in this case daily SMA20 (in other words daily M/BB) has a downward trend that could have a significant resistance to the growth of bitcoin, even to the impossibility of breaking up this point without more deep consolidation.
Take care of your BTC and USD.
Please, like my analysis.
Note
The down line daily SMA20 (or in other words, daily M/BB) had a significant resistance to further growth of bitcoin. One of the variants of my analysis indicated that this given resistance level would drop bitcoin to deep consolidation, especially after a series of "artificial" pumps on weekends.Today, bitcoin started its working week with a significant fall, breaking through a number of support lines: daily SMA5, EMA5, EMA10 and even falling below weekly EMA50. At the same bitcoin stopped around daily SMA10.
Let us analyze the further possible movements.
Now, 4H/5H oscillators Williams and StochRSI are in the "oversold" zone, so technically you can expect a very small increase to 7600, but the impulse should not reach even 4H/5H M/BB. In this case 4H/5H trend TIs (MACD, DMI, ROC12, ROC26, CCI) completely point to the down projection. Thus, we can expect the pressure down to L/BB = 7400.
Daily TIs give mixed signals: Williams=-68, RSI=41, DMI=30 (negative projection), MACD=-285, ROC26=-19 (negative projection), CCI=-33 (negative projection), and only StochRSI approaches to overbought. Based on daytime TI, we can expect testing down 7100-7300.
Daily EMA5 could not cross up daily EMA10. Daily EMA12 strives to cross down daily EMA26. Also daily SMA50 could not cross up daily SMA100. In this case, weekly SMA/EMA and MACD only strengthen the projection downwards and indicate a possible extension to weekly L / BB = 6000.
Conclusion: if bitcoin would consolidate about 4H/5H EMA26 and daily SMA5, EMA5, EMA10 = ~ 7570 then we can expect a small increase to 4H/5H U/BB = ~ 7700-7800. In the negative case and the most probable, the combination of TI and MA indicates continuation of deep consolidation, with points 7100-7300, 7400.
Also I consistently in my analyzes pointed out that reaching points 7800-7900 will change my medium-term plan, which was based on 6400 points, 6800-6900. So far we have not reached either upper or lower limits of analysis.
Take care of your BTC and USD!
Note
Quick update: all 4H, 5H and daily MA/EMA are punched down.4H and 5H TIs (MACD, DMI, ROC12, ROC26, CCI) have a downward projection.
Daily TIs are also basically signaling the continuation of the fall: DMI=30 (-DI> + DI), ROC12=-2 (negative projection), CCI=-54 (negative projection), on the other hand ROC26=-17 (positive projection) and MACD=-280 (MACD > signal, but EMA12 < EMA26).
At the same time, as it was calculated, short-term target was achieved: 4H/5H touched L/BB = ~ 7400. And if on 4H there was a dense touch, then on 5H still it is possible to expect falling to 7300-7350, and daily L/BB = ~ 6900 now does not seem so far.
Take care of your BTC and USD!
Note
Simple chart only shows that there might be a bounce at mentioned levels. I've been saying in my analysis, that technically to start new cycle to ATH, bictoin should touch weekly EMA100 = ~ 5600 or even weekly SMA100 = ~4400. Especially now, when bitcoin is below all (4H, 5H, daily) MA/EMA.
At present, I do not if that would happen or not, as I am not giving very far forecasts. I will make "step-by-step" analyzes.
Note
Bitcoin turned up near the forecasted level: 4H/5H touched L/BB = ~ 7400, although I expected further possible pressure down to 7300–7350. With this growth up, bitcoin broke up through resistances (4H/5H and daily MA), slightly slowing down about 4H/5H M/BB, and is now testing up 4H SMA100.Let us analyze the further possible movements.
At the 4H TF, we have a number of positive projections: Williams=-34, MACD=1 (MACD> signal line), DMI=17 (+ DI> -DI), CCI = 22. On the other hand, ROC12/26 have negative projections. Technically, we can expect a very small increase to 4H EMA100 = ~ 7700 or 4H U/BB = ~ 7800.
At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from 4H, except that we have multidirectional projections of ROC12 (negative) and ROC26 (positive). Technically possible growth also has the top levels at 7750–7800.
At the daily TF, the TIs are giving mixed signals, for example: MACD=-262 (MACD> signal line), DMI=30 (-DI> + DI), ROC12=0 (positive projection), ROC26=-15 (although the projection is positive ), CCI=-31 (neutral projection). Technically it is possible to have a drop to 7300.
If we consider the MA-analysis, then we can highlight the following important points:
At 4H and 5H TF, the situation is almost the same: EMA12/26 rendered support for testing M/BB, although SMA10 broke down SMA20 and seeks to break SMA50 down. While that EMA10 <EMA20 <EMA50.
At the daily TF, EMA5 could not cross up EMA10. Also EMA12 seeks to cross down EMA26. And more importantly, SMA50 has not yet been able to cross up SMA100. And an additional negative factor is that MAs with a short period are below MAs with a long period.
MA-analysis technically indicates a possible drop to the cross of 4H SMA20 and 4H SMA50 = ~ 7500.
Finally, if bitcoin would consolidate above 4H/5H M/BB = ~ 7600 then we should expect a small increase to 4H/5H U/BB = ~ 7750–7800. In the negative case and the most probable one, we should expect continuation of deeper consolidation, at 7100–7300.
P.S. Do not forget that on 06.06 absolutely everything is possible, hope you know? :-)
Take care of your BTC and USD!
Note
Bitcoin continues to amaze with its manipulations, punching stop-loss and kicking out leverage traders. At first, bitcoin was consolidating above 4H/5H M/BB ~ 7600, so we could expect a slight increase to 4H/5H U/BB ~ 7750-7800. But suddenly bitcoin kicked out many long positions, and immediately after reversal kicked out short-lovers. We will analyze further possible movements, although it might be more reasonable to go into fiat until a clear trend is formed:At the 4H TF we have a number of positive projections: MACD=16 (MACD > signal line), EMA 12 > EMA 26, DMI=18 (+ DI> -DI), while ROC=0 and CCI=16 have a positive trend. Technically, we can expect a very small increase to 4H EMA100 ~ 7700, and with a successful test then up to 4H U/BB = ~ 7770.
At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from 4H. Technically possible growth also has the highest points of 7770-7800.
At the daily TF, TIs are giving mixed signals: MACD= -240 (MACD > signal line), EMA12 < EMA26, DMI=30 (-DI > + DI), while ROC=-4 and CCI=-14 have positive trend. Technically, we can expect growth to EMA50 ~ 8100.
If we consider the analysis from the point SMA/EMA, then we can highlight the following important points:
At the 4H TF: EMA12/26 is positive. SMA/EMA10 > SMA/EMA20 > SMA/EMA50.
At the 5H TF, the situation is almost the same, because the dynamics are most like as at 4H TF.
At the daily TF EMA5 crossed up EMA10. And more importantly that SMA50 touched up SMA100. The negative factor is that MAs with a short period are below MAs with a long period.
The SMA/EMA analysis technically indicates a possible increase to 5H EMA100 = ~ 7770.
Finally, if bitcoin can fix above daily SMA 20 (daily M/BB) ~ 7680, then we can expect growth to the specified 7800-8200. In the negative case, if daily SMA 20 (daily M/BB) can stand the pressure of bulls, continuation of consolidation should be expected, with points 4H/5H L/BB ~ 7300-7400.
Take care of your BTC and USD!
Note
Quick update to previous analysis.4H EMA100 ~ 7700 reached, now should back test down to ~7600.
At the 5H TF, it also shows possible back test to M/BB, EMA26, EMA50 ~7600.
Now bitcoin closed below 5H SMA100, ROC and CCI have negative trend. If ~7600 holds, then technically we might see possible growth to ~7800.
At the daily TF bitcoin is traded a little above SMA20 (M/BB), though %R=-12, DMI=30 (-DI > +DI), ROC has negative trend, CCI has positive trend.
Generally assume that bitcoin might test down to 7600, though ATRs 4H/5H ~100, daily ~320.
Good luck.
Trade closed: target reached
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