Bitcoin Will Rise Bullish Sideways
Updated
Daily TF and Bigger Picture Bullish
30 Min. is currently bearish,Bitcoin needs to fill the previouse Gaps
southern area.I have marked them for you.
The gaps have to be filled first, because BTC rose too fast and it needs to pick up the buy orders that areas.. Otherwise, the Bull trend will be slowed down.
I am long, and stay long. The VP is trending Bullish, The POC lies above 26980.This is a strong sigal and Indicatr that the market should and will retur back to those areas.
In northern areas we have very high volumes. Above 26000 we will experience higher buy pressures.
I have market key level prices for you.
Geerally this correction is necessary and healthy for BTC as it offers many buying oppurtunieties
at support areas and turning key levels.
Below 19000 The bearish trend will be started.
30 Min. is currently bearish,Bitcoin needs to fill the previouse Gaps
southern area.I have marked them for you.
The gaps have to be filled first, because BTC rose too fast and it needs to pick up the buy orders that areas.. Otherwise, the Bull trend will be slowed down.
I am long, and stay long. The VP is trending Bullish, The POC lies above 26980.This is a strong sigal and Indicatr that the market should and will retur back to those areas.
In northern areas we have very high volumes. Above 26000 we will experience higher buy pressures.
I have market key level prices for you.
Geerally this correction is necessary and healthy for BTC as it offers many buying oppurtunieties
at support areas and turning key levels.
Below 19000 The bearish trend will be started.
Note
The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
Note
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US Dollar Index: DXY licks US inflation-inflicted wounds at three-week low above 103.00 on Fed dayUS Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.
As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.
It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”
As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.
Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.
Note
European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.Note
The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.Note
BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple BattlesBTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above 26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to 28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past 27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward 24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at 23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the 24.2k-24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the 22.4k and 21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at 27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
Note
Bitcoin will rise higher lolNote
Gold is Being Pulled Between a Hawkish Fed and New Geopolitical ConcernsUS Housing Surprises, Fed Pauses but Remains Hawkish
Last week, US economic data revealed a much stronger than expected housing market, with the NAHB Housing Market Index surpassing expectations to hit its highest level since July of last year. New building permits also beat market expectations, and new housing starts surged to their highest level since May 2022.
Last month, we reviewed the three possibilities of a Federal Reserve pivoting to rate cuts, continuing to hike, or pausing. The June FOMC meeting delivered our most likely scenario of a pause, which we presented as one of the better cases for gold, at least in the short term.
However, what markets received from the June FOMC meeting was a hawkish pause, in which no action was taken, while Chair Powell renewed his hawkish rhetoric, underlining his commitment to the task of bringing down inflation.
In a busy week for FOMC speakers, markets had the opportunity to digest comments from a total of six FOMC members. Jerome Powell also made his semi-annual trip to Capitol Hill, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, and Senate Banking Committee, where he all-but confirmed that more rate hikes are in store and stated that “we don’t see rate cuts any time soon.”
Gold’s Reaction
The result of this pull between the resilience of the US economy plus a hawkish Fed on the one hand, and growing geopolitical uncertainty on the other, has resulted in muted price action despite the overall bearish trend.
We’re seeing this among investors at HYCM as well, for whom gold is one of the most popular assets this year. Positioning suggests current price action could be a period of short-term profit-taking within a longer-term bullish view.
We can see this reflected in gold’s chart. Between June 20 and 22, which saw the release of US housing data and FOMC speeches, gold prices declined by almost 2.4%.
Note
Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.
Note
The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.Note
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI DataUS stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
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