An In-Depth Analysis on Why The Whole Market Is Reversing - NOW
Updated
Below I have outlined an in-depth analysis on why Bitcoin is reversing to a bull trend right now. This has been done by analyzing the current pattern formation, indicators, and overviewing the market as a whole, including alt coins, and their position in their current charts.
Let’s start with Bitcoin and it’s pattern we currently have since May 5th, 2018. We have been in a down trend for two months now. And have made several pit stops along the way. This is a common formation with 7 points:
We see this in many charts, including on smaller timeframes, and bigger time frames. Here is another time this occurred:
While this may seem abstract, it actually isn’t. I see this all the time, and trade it all the time, barring we see a bullish divergence when at point #7. Which, we do have right now:
So, the question is, where is the target if we are reversing? The likely initial targets will be the 50% fib and the 70.2% fib. So, T1 is $7890, T2 is $8725.
“Okay, so, you’ve come up with this 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 theory SecludedJ, sounds like a crock of bologna to me.” You know what, fair enough. I can accept that. So, let’s look at some alt coins:
Like it or not, here is Verge. I have created a side-by-side chart that shows where it was when it previously skyrocketed, and where it is now. Both pull backs included an 83.8% retrace, ironic? Hmmm… Seems like a launch pad to me…
Let’s also look at their indicators, do we see bullish divergences on them that show similarities?
Yes, we see bullish indicators and similarities of the structure of how Verge’s cycles work. It is showing that a new cycle is about to begin.
Let’s look at Stellar Lumens:
How about Stratis?
TenX?
Essentially, my point is, this is it. We are at the moment where everything has reset. It is time. We are on the launch pad. It is sometimes hard to see when you are on the launch pad because all you can see is zero, and fear we are going there. If you fear we are going to zero, you should never have played this game in the first place. But for those who want the largest gains… this looks like the time for a new cycle.
I wish you the best. I am long here, and am awaiting a tiny pullback in Bitcoin to $5900-6200 for a chance to bring in even more fresh fiat.
Mind you, if Bitcoin goes to this $5000 that everyone is calling for, that is not the reset spot for Bitcoin. That is an indicator that Bitcoin is going much further down. It will bounce up and down going further down, pulling some tricks out from it’s sleeves, but a break downward to $5000 signals we are going to have a bear market for at least another year.
TL;DR: Bitcoin and alt coins are going up.
As always, you are responsible for your own trading decisions. Do your own research. Make decisions with education, not emotions. Best of luck.
- SecludedJ
Let’s start with Bitcoin and it’s pattern we currently have since May 5th, 2018. We have been in a down trend for two months now. And have made several pit stops along the way. This is a common formation with 7 points:
We see this in many charts, including on smaller timeframes, and bigger time frames. Here is another time this occurred:
While this may seem abstract, it actually isn’t. I see this all the time, and trade it all the time, barring we see a bullish divergence when at point #7. Which, we do have right now:
So, the question is, where is the target if we are reversing? The likely initial targets will be the 50% fib and the 70.2% fib. So, T1 is $7890, T2 is $8725.
“Okay, so, you’ve come up with this 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 theory SecludedJ, sounds like a crock of bologna to me.” You know what, fair enough. I can accept that. So, let’s look at some alt coins:
Like it or not, here is Verge. I have created a side-by-side chart that shows where it was when it previously skyrocketed, and where it is now. Both pull backs included an 83.8% retrace, ironic? Hmmm… Seems like a launch pad to me…
Let’s also look at their indicators, do we see bullish divergences on them that show similarities?
Yes, we see bullish indicators and similarities of the structure of how Verge’s cycles work. It is showing that a new cycle is about to begin.
Let’s look at Stellar Lumens:
How about Stratis?
TenX?
Essentially, my point is, this is it. We are at the moment where everything has reset. It is time. We are on the launch pad. It is sometimes hard to see when you are on the launch pad because all you can see is zero, and fear we are going there. If you fear we are going to zero, you should never have played this game in the first place. But for those who want the largest gains… this looks like the time for a new cycle.
I wish you the best. I am long here, and am awaiting a tiny pullback in Bitcoin to $5900-6200 for a chance to bring in even more fresh fiat.
Mind you, if Bitcoin goes to this $5000 that everyone is calling for, that is not the reset spot for Bitcoin. That is an indicator that Bitcoin is going much further down. It will bounce up and down going further down, pulling some tricks out from it’s sleeves, but a break downward to $5000 signals we are going to have a bear market for at least another year.
TL;DR: Bitcoin and alt coins are going up.
As always, you are responsible for your own trading decisions. Do your own research. Make decisions with education, not emotions. Best of luck.
- SecludedJ
Note
Just a quick update to this. Everything is still going to plan. Nothing has occurred that is making me feel the idea is wrong.I will be watching $7100 closely. If we shoot up to the $7000-$7100 region and get strongly rejected, it could be indicative of a sharp fall. I will update this idea at that time. But I want you guys to know I am watching to see if we have some type of strong reaction at that price.
Otherwise, nothing has changed, I'm still long in my positions.
-SecludedJ
Note
Just a quick update on what I see. Everything is still completely fine. Targets are still good to go. But I want you to be aware of early indicators that could tell you well ahead of time that it's not going to play out. I want you to be prepared for the chance that this idea is wrong. A MUST BREAK region is $7000-7100. This MUST be broken upwards. If it does not, it is a signal of a larger fall incoming. So, you need to pay attention to that.Note
I understand a lot of traders are waiting for "Capitulation". The moment that is so painful it just washes out traders who can't take the pain any longer.While it is still possible that we continue down, if you read my latest update and the scenarios we are looking for if that is to happen, you have to realize, in a bubble pop, capitulation OCCURRED A LONG TIME AGO.
We are very deep into the corrective pattern. While we can still make a -50% move if we can't break above $7100, it doesn't mean we HAVE TO.
Capitulation occurred back in February, during the initital crash from $20,000 all the way down to $6000. Then we bounced, people thought we were going to have an inverse head and shoulders, it failed, people lost, they got angry, especially when it popped back up again to head to $10,000 again. Then, we started the slow, boring, depressing, grind down. And that's where we are. The depressing part of a correction. It's slow. It's never ending. It gives you alot of time to look at your portfolio if you have been hodling and say "what the heck have I done?!"
The end is coming. Either it is here already, or it will come shortly after failing to break $7100. Either way, hang tight, please realize capitulation happened a very long time ago and it doesn't HAVE to happen now.
Check the link below for the "Wall St. Cheat Sheet: Psychology of a Market Cycle".
thelincolnlist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Wall-St-Cheat-Sheet.png
Note
;)Note
This should be obvious to everyone. However, for those who don't see it...Keep an eye on this. We broke support that held for several months, at this point, we are doing a back test. I have known about this all along, however I still believe it's a trap. Still expecting breaking up through it. But, buyer beware.
Note
I see many scenarios.1. We break below $7290 and go to $6750. (Unlikely)
2. We break above $7650, go to $7860, then crash down to $6750, then rise to $8700 (Possible, fibs work for this scenario)
3. We break above $7650, go to $7860, then crash down to $6750, then keep crashing down to $3500 (Possible, previous fractals show this as happening)
4. We break above $7650, and we keep going up to $8700, then reverse.
5. We break above $7650, and keep going all the way to $9500-10500.
In the end, we are looking for a break below $7290 to tell us we are going lower. From there, we gauge if we are going to bounce or if we are going to continue down.
If we break above $7650, we watch how it behaves at $7860.
If you are not already in a long position from when I said the ideal entry was around $6000, then you're in a tough spot, and it's risky to consider playing quick trades here.
The market is designed to screw you over. We had our third inverse head and shoulders, dumb money thought they were smart because they got screwed twice on inverse head and shoulders already and wouldn't get screwed the third time. Well, the market knows your psychology. And the market needs to catch you wrong footed and put in you a crappy spot. So, if you weren't long from $5800-6200, well, that's where you are, in a crappy spot. And you got screwed again.
You can long here, but your stop needs to be $7290. Target $7860... Like a 1:1 risk/reward ratio, which is pretty bad. I wouldn't take that. But you're going to start feeling some fomo pretty soon if this thing keeps going up and up and up.
Rest assured, I think we will see below $7,000 again one day. No matter how high this bounce takes us.
Note
The reason I believe scenario #1 is unlikely is because too many people want that to happen. There are many buyers right now waiting to buy at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. The ones who sold underneath the neckline who got left behind. The market needs to FOMO them in to where they think it isn't going to happen, and they have to buy higher. So, I don't see us breaking down RIGHT NOW.Note
IMO, this is a bad break for Bitcoin. Now, I made all my entries in the 5800-6200 range, so, I'm going to let this play out for a little while since I'm in no danger with this trade. However, if we pull all the way back into the 6700s right now, I do believe that's a really bad sign for Bitcoin, and could be an indicator that we are heading to 3500-3700 after consolidating in that area for a few days. So, let's see how this plays out.Note
So far so good. We tested $8300. Hopefully you guys all got in under $6200 as this was an obvious reversal. Getting in now on FOMO is insane. I am looking to reach out to $8700 to take my first profit, which is only $400-500 away.
Mind you, that could be the COMPLETE REVERSAL SPOT. We could be 100% stopped there, and move down again, making new lows. We could also go up into the 10k range. It's hard to tell now. But as long as you got in around 6k, who cares. You're crushing all the people who FOMO'd at 7.3k and 8k. Your profit margins are significantly higher. Congrats.
Once thing to have in mind is that we absolutely will revisit $6,700 at some point. We will not go up forever. We will turn around at some point and go retest those lows as support. Once we confirm that as support, we are given the green light to start making new highs. But until then, do not stress yourself out if you exit slightly early. Just don't be fooled into thinking this is going up forever.
I wish you all the best of luck. Hopefully you got into this trade in a smart way, early, and not emotionally, being late.
Note
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