Bitcoin-What Next?
Updated
Good Evening! This is an analysis of 
BTCUSD. We're using a four hour chart, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, Fib Channel, MACD, Andrew's Pitchfork, trend-lines, H&S Patterns, and just a couple of flags ;)
Let's back up to late-January where we started to form the first shoulder in the inverse H&S pattern. We finished that in early-March. Keep this in the back of your head, this pattern was never confirmed nor denied so could still validate!!
In early-March we began our series of flag patterns. They're coming in at about a 50% accuracy, trading off validation each time. In other words, the first flag beginning in early-March succeeded, the second failed, third succeeded, fourth failed. I say the second bear flag between 3/13-18 failed because it never reached as low as it was supposed to given the large flag pole. Right now we're in a bear flag that began around 2AM Mountain Time US. If it were to follow the pass/fail pattern it would fail, but that's idiotic logic! I believe it will fail, but not for that reason.
Right now we're trading at the 50 EMA (green). After a horrible failure to retest the 200 EMA, we're now retesting the 50 EMA. Should we hit 8300 and breakout of the bear flag, we'll be breaking down of the 50 EMA after our recovery Monday. That could send us to retest the .38 or even .23 retracement levels.
We're trading in the lower sector of the Andrew's pitchfork formed using the low of 2/5, high of 2/20 and low of 3/18. We're trading on-trend in this lower sector, having not tested the support or resistance once. This is admittedly not my favorite tool, because we're always trading at some support/resistance.
The MACD is down-trending since a crossover 2AM Mountain Time US. We have significant sell volume, but the trend-lines are getting flatter so could cross soon and send us back up for a time.
I'm bear, what turns me bull? For me to go long again I want to see us breakout of the resistance of our current downtrend (deep red). What will secure my confidence? IF we breakout of the green trend-line AND the resistance for the Andrew's pitchfork.
This is an educational analysis ofBTCUSD brought to you by Noah Holtgraves, Economic Consultant. This is intended for educational purposes only and should not be used as advice to trade. No liabilities are held on behalf of Noah Holtgraves for result in trades from intentionally following this analysis.
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BTCUSD. We're using a four hour chart, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, Fib Channel, MACD, Andrew's Pitchfork, trend-lines, H&S Patterns, and just a couple of flags ;)Let's back up to late-January where we started to form the first shoulder in the inverse H&S pattern. We finished that in early-March. Keep this in the back of your head, this pattern was never confirmed nor denied so could still validate!!
In early-March we began our series of flag patterns. They're coming in at about a 50% accuracy, trading off validation each time. In other words, the first flag beginning in early-March succeeded, the second failed, third succeeded, fourth failed. I say the second bear flag between 3/13-18 failed because it never reached as low as it was supposed to given the large flag pole. Right now we're in a bear flag that began around 2AM Mountain Time US. If it were to follow the pass/fail pattern it would fail, but that's idiotic logic! I believe it will fail, but not for that reason.
Right now we're trading at the 50 EMA (green). After a horrible failure to retest the 200 EMA, we're now retesting the 50 EMA. Should we hit 8300 and breakout of the bear flag, we'll be breaking down of the 50 EMA after our recovery Monday. That could send us to retest the .38 or even .23 retracement levels.
We're trading in the lower sector of the Andrew's pitchfork formed using the low of 2/5, high of 2/20 and low of 3/18. We're trading on-trend in this lower sector, having not tested the support or resistance once. This is admittedly not my favorite tool, because we're always trading at some support/resistance.
The MACD is down-trending since a crossover 2AM Mountain Time US. We have significant sell volume, but the trend-lines are getting flatter so could cross soon and send us back up for a time.
I'm bear, what turns me bull? For me to go long again I want to see us breakout of the resistance of our current downtrend (deep red). What will secure my confidence? IF we breakout of the green trend-line AND the resistance for the Andrew's pitchfork.
This is an educational analysis of
BTCUSD brought to you by Noah Holtgraves, Economic Consultant. This is intended for educational purposes only and should not be used as advice to trade. No liabilities are held on behalf of Noah Holtgraves for result in trades from intentionally following this analysis. Like and Follow!!!
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The bear flag was successful last night in breaking out at around 7pm Mountain Time US. We just barely traded above our crucial 8300 mark in that 4 hour candle. We've traded lower, but haven't completed a 4 hour below 8300 yet so the bulls are fighting hard. It's most likely we'll be floating around this 8500 mark for today. There's too much volatility and too short of a flag pole for another bear flag to have formed. Right now I'm keeping an eye out for patterns.Note
After breakout from our bear flag we've recovered to our pre-breakout levels. we're now retesting that good ol' 50 EMA (green). We're looking more bear going into the weekend here. Just a couple days ago we were shooting for the 200 EMA (red), but that seems like a pipe dream now! Let's hope we retest this 50 EMA hard and get a good start to the weekend!
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