Note that this is a bullish scenario that I have a measure of confidence in, but until we close above the resistance from November 2021 we remain in a macro downtrend.
Summary: Besides coming into the end of this pattern, we also are approaching the options expiry and with about 1.5 months out from potential start of the US government's tapering. On-chain continues to reflect macro accumulation of supply, and Open Interest ( ie . the amount of leverage trading in the market) while elevated, isn't at levels that make me fearful of a large downside move here. We also see a fractal playing out potentially similar to July 2021, or the H1 2021 rallies. Based on the historical swings of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA , if we are expected to see a bullish inversion of that MA band, it suggests a rally would need to start in the very near future.
So What?: All of that to say, I see a strong confluence of factors that could lead to a rally to the upside soon. I've been saying this since Q4 2021 and grow increasingly confident of it. I'm not expect a wild rally to $100k, but at least revisiting levels above $50k feel very likely, above $60k possible, and above $70k less likely but not out of reach depending on whether the market can regain that fever pitch like we saw in early 2021.
Note on Crypto/ Bitcoin Cycles: I do not believe a parabolic top like those in earlier cycles is coming, no matter how much OG / veteran traders may have hoped for it. We may see a strong final push for this "cycle," if you consider this a traditional cycle -but I suspect a tempered move to the upside is more likely, with the notion of traditional cycle fading away (in my opinion) as we find shorter rotations in crypto and closer correlation with traditional markets and especially tech stocks.
Summary: Besides coming into the end of this pattern, we also are approaching the options expiry and with about 1.5 months out from potential start of the US government's tapering. On-chain continues to reflect macro accumulation of supply, and Open Interest ( ie . the amount of leverage trading in the market) while elevated, isn't at levels that make me fearful of a large downside move here. We also see a fractal playing out potentially similar to July 2021, or the H1 2021 rallies. Based on the historical swings of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA , if we are expected to see a bullish inversion of that MA band, it suggests a rally would need to start in the very near future.
So What?: All of that to say, I see a strong confluence of factors that could lead to a rally to the upside soon. I've been saying this since Q4 2021 and grow increasingly confident of it. I'm not expect a wild rally to $100k, but at least revisiting levels above $50k feel very likely, above $60k possible, and above $70k less likely but not out of reach depending on whether the market can regain that fever pitch like we saw in early 2021.
Note on Crypto/ Bitcoin Cycles: I do not believe a parabolic top like those in earlier cycles is coming, no matter how much OG / veteran traders may have hoped for it. We may see a strong final push for this "cycle," if you consider this a traditional cycle -but I suspect a tempered move to the upside is more likely, with the notion of traditional cycle fading away (in my opinion) as we find shorter rotations in crypto and closer correlation with traditional markets and especially tech stocks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.