Overview:
The bull trap has closed, with
BTCUSD falling 5.29% on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the bulls couldn't hold the W range of 63k-64k, and we've now dropped back into the D range established after the August 5th recovery. We spent three weeks recovering, and now the fourth week is starting to resemble July 29th, when we began a Sunday night sell-off that continued throughout the week. If we see a daily red candle of 10-15%, it will be a clear sign of capitulation.
We’re still 22 days away from the first rate cut. A full market cycle could play out before then, possibly reaching the darker and unthinkable lows of pre-ETF excitement, around 41-43k.
SP500 has been trading within a range for the last five days, unable to break its all-time high. Historically, the last weeks of August often precede a September sell-off, but this year some positive news has kept the market afloat. The SP500 managed to recover after the Japanese bank rate hike that crashed global markets, but the tech-heavy QQQ hasn’t reclaimed its previous highs, drawing lower highs instead.
W:BTCUSD lost the weekly levels, canceling the fourth bullish wave, and returning to the daily trading range. BTC remains above the Bollinger Bands’ moving average and is now heading toward the lower bound, which overlaps with the weekly level at 55.9k. Closing this week below 58.4k would be bearish confirmation, but for now, we remain in neutral territory.
D: Tuesday’s 5.29% decline is the biggest daily red candle since August 5th, marking the end of the crash recovery. The crash occurred without MACD divergences or oversold RSI, simply because there were no bullish limit orders to catch the falling knife.
4h: RSI is at oversold levels. According to the Volume Profile indicator, the Point of Control has become our new support level.
1h: RSI is at oversold levels. A rally to 60.2k is possible. Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins corrected more sharply.
ETHUSD dropped ETHUSD 8.23%, 
SUIUSD 8.47%, 
SOLUSD 6.38%, and 
NEARUSD 5.06%. ETH, as the king of altcoins, fell below the weekly level of $2549, making it increasingly likely to revisit 2.2k, the pre-BTC ETF demand level.
Bull Case: Bulls lost the weekly level but managed to hold the post-crash daily range, which isn’t full capitulation yet. If we stay in this accumulation zone long enough and pair it with positive macro news, we could see a fourth bullish wave.
Bear Case: Bulls lost the weekly level, and there were no limit orders to stop the fall. If we were starting a bull wave, it should have pumped strongly while maintaining captured levels, but that didn’t happen.
Fear and Greed Index: 46.51. We’re back in a curving downtrend, but still neutral.
Prediction: Range trading, followed by a drop toward 55.8k.
Opportunities at W and 4h Divergences of Major Alts:
APTUSD A MACD divergence formed on Sunday and Monday on the 4h timeframe. Additionally, a head and shoulders pattern has emerged. Short to $5.86 for a 12% gain.
TONUSD TON hasn’t corrected as much as other alts in the last five months. Even SOL is only 33% away from its BTC ETF demand level, while TON is 59% away! Yet, SOL has proven itself as a memecoin platform, whereas TON is merely a ‘messenger’ blockchain run by non-Telegram people.
The bull trap has closed, with
BTCUSD falling 5.29% on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the bulls couldn't hold the W range of 63k-64k, and we've now dropped back into the D range established after the August 5th recovery. We spent three weeks recovering, and now the fourth week is starting to resemble July 29th, when we began a Sunday night sell-off that continued throughout the week. If we see a daily red candle of 10-15%, it will be a clear sign of capitulation.We’re still 22 days away from the first rate cut. A full market cycle could play out before then, possibly reaching the darker and unthinkable lows of pre-ETF excitement, around 41-43k.
SP500 has been trading within a range for the last five days, unable to break its all-time high. Historically, the last weeks of August often precede a September sell-off, but this year some positive news has kept the market afloat. The SP500 managed to recover after the Japanese bank rate hike that crashed global markets, but the tech-heavy QQQ hasn’t reclaimed its previous highs, drawing lower highs instead.W:
BTCUSD lost the weekly levels, canceling the fourth bullish wave, and returning to the daily trading range. BTC remains above the Bollinger Bands’ moving average and is now heading toward the lower bound, which overlaps with the weekly level at 55.9k. Closing this week below 58.4k would be bearish confirmation, but for now, we remain in neutral territory. D: Tuesday’s 5.29% decline is the biggest daily red candle since August 5th, marking the end of the crash recovery. The crash occurred without MACD divergences or oversold RSI, simply because there were no bullish limit orders to catch the falling knife.
4h: RSI is at oversold levels. According to the Volume Profile indicator, the Point of Control has become our new support level.
1h: RSI is at oversold levels. A rally to 60.2k is possible. Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins corrected more sharply.
ETHUSD dropped ETHUSD 8.23%, SUIUSD 8.47%, SOLUSD 6.38%, and NEARUSD 5.06%. ETH, as the king of altcoins, fell below the weekly level of $2549, making it increasingly likely to revisit 2.2k, the pre-BTC ETF demand level.Bull Case: Bulls lost the weekly level but managed to hold the post-crash daily range, which isn’t full capitulation yet. If we stay in this accumulation zone long enough and pair it with positive macro news, we could see a fourth bullish wave.
Bear Case: Bulls lost the weekly level, and there were no limit orders to stop the fall. If we were starting a bull wave, it should have pumped strongly while maintaining captured levels, but that didn’t happen.
Fear and Greed Index: 46.51. We’re back in a curving downtrend, but still neutral.
Prediction: Range trading, followed by a drop toward 55.8k.
Opportunities at W and 4h Divergences of Major Alts:
APTUSD A MACD divergence formed on Sunday and Monday on the 4h timeframe. Additionally, a head and shoulders pattern has emerged. Short to $5.86 for a 12% gain.TONUSD TON hasn’t corrected as much as other alts in the last five months. Even SOL is only 33% away from its BTC ETF demand level, while TON is 59% away! Yet, SOL has proven itself as a memecoin platform, whereas TON is merely a ‘messenger’ blockchain run by non-Telegram people.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Follow for daily updates.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.