Long

Updated

Bitcoin still moving within channel outlined in my last post.

Bitcoin is still moving within the channel I outlined in my last post.
Mentioned may already be on "5th wave up"; we seem to have more confirmation of that.
Longs/Buys laddered between 7650 to 7500 for any sharp drops seem like a decent Risk/Reward.
Stay cautious, lots of Traps and Stop-Hunting.

Note

I'm expecting BTC's current move up to be completed around here (8130-8160).

Note

BTC extending oddly long on this wave.
I was thinking to mention that price could wick up to 8200-8300, but I sort of doubted it might...

Bitcoin's current support below at 8050 then 7900.

Note

A pull-back to at least 8130-7970 would be reasonable before Bitcoin attempts another move up (but BTC is moving a bit unreasonable with retracements, so don't rely on it).

BTC broke this upper channel resistance which is now acting as support currently holding the price up.

Note

BTC - Below ~8190 or Above ~8310 from here should give us Bitcoin's short-term direction for the coming hours.

Note

BTC pushing higher, but not convincingly just yet.
Unless Bitcoin can get & hold over yesterday's high, it's still in the territory to see a drop soon.

Note

BTC would need to break above this falling RSI channel (of the past day) to start another move/wave up.

Note

Once managed to break ~8310 convincingly, we got another wave up, as expected.

Previous: "BTC - Below ~8190 or Above ~8310 from here should give us Bitcoin's short-term direction for the coming hours."

Note

Bitcoin - My current wave count and estimate retracement.
Avg retracement target: 8150 (Range: 8240-7920)
Seems a good chance BTC just completed (or is near complete) a wave-3 of 5.

Note

Updated Bitcoin retracement target/range: 8150-7800
(I believe it's now more likely to drop to the lower end of this range)
BTC Current Price: 8200

Note

Bitcoin is still moving on track as per last analysis.
Here's a potential path BTC may take to complete its current correction.
Avg Target: ~7850

Note

#Bitcoin still moving pretty much right on Target & on Time per my last post.
I advise caution however. I recommend observing the velocity of this fall and see the sub-waves develop. There's also possibility this is a much larger correction & BTC is still on wave-A down.
I will re-analyze in some hours.

All recent trades successful (5% up in past 5 hrs).
I've got to be away for a bit. Removing all positions till I get back and re-analyze.

Note

BTC - To be clear again. I don't recommend jumping into Long position right now at chart's potential wave-C (W4 end).
Current movement resembles Wave-3 of much larger correction (drop), rather than C of ABC (currently disproportional to the potential A). Could get to 7600-7400.

Note

BTC's heavy drop held exactly at my drop target of 7850 (given a day ago). Still possible that this is a regular ABC as W-4 of 5, & maybe ETF news accelerated the drop.

My other theory, BTC is still on W-A of a larger ABC.
Regardless, I prefer a drop to ~7775 before going Long.

Note

- I see potential for #Bitcoin price bounce soon, @ ~7250 (7300 to 7100 range).
Altcoins may see bounce around the same time as well.

(Sorry I've been away for a bit, may still be for a couple days till I finish catching up on some urgent business work).

Note

I believe that has bottomed (or very near to) for the day.
Potentially, there could still be a subW4 correction (Up) followed by a 5th subW (Down) to complete this daily drop.

(Sorry for lack of charts - Still super busy for a while & haven't updated my charts recently, just manually analyzing quickly)

Note

Be patient, Analyze, Don't Over-trade, Stop-losses, Ladder, Take Profits, Less Emotion, More Logic.
For the past 2 weeks I've barely spent time looking at charts or trading, but still take profit daily (0 Losses).
I spend some minutes identifying and taking good opportunities when they come.
Account Growth:
Sunday: +12.1%
Monday: +3.8%
Tuesday: +8.7%

Note

(Another trade closed seconds ago) - I did as I advised when asked: "Laddered Buys at current price and below" (Leveraged).
Order just closed for quick scalp profit. (Maybe 1-3 mins spent in trade)

twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1027059774662291456

Growth:
Sun: +12.1%
Mon: +3.8%
Tue: +8.7%
Wed: (Pending)

Note

(Another trade closed seconds ago)
SS: pbs.twimg.com/media/DkDitkUUUAAXbGX.jpg

Note

Adding to this: "Potentially, there could still be a subW4 correction (Up) followed by a 5th subW (Down) to complete this daily drop. "

A subW4 would likely be 200-350 point move.
A subW5 likely 350-500 move.

Sorry for the lack of my usual precise targets. I haven't done a proper analysis of BTC recently.
Would require analysis of multiple days, on different timescales, draw Channels, Supports, etc..
I don't want to give "Guess" targets

Note

BTC - Looks like the Subwave 4 & 5 I mentioned may be about to wrap up, & chance of reversal bounce near.
SubW4: 6360 to 6555
SubW5: 6555 to 6180
(One last small drop to 6150-6100 could still be in the works. I don't see a defined last Sub5 of Sub5 yet)

Note

There's some useful comments/feedback I left over at this thread:

twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1027066332397875200

"It mostly comes down to experience. No "Secret Method", rather, each individual should develop their own strategy based on their goals, availability, skill level, etc.
The basic rules of successful trading remains the same.
Breaking these rules is usually what leads to losses."

"Problem is many Oversize and Overtrade early. Destroying self-confidence & not giving themselves the opportunity to mature & gain experience over time.
If one already follows all the rules outlined yet still struggles, then improve Analysis. Never blame other TA for your mistakes."

"Mostly all traders, even the best, had to go though periods of losses, but this is where they learn the most.

Many keep losing because they just look for the "Next call" from TAs, without properly understanding why they should or should not enter a trade."

"I recommend:
1) Trade with smaller position sizes as Practice until you've built Skill, Confidence & Consistency.

2) Each time you take a significant loss, take notes, study & understand exactly why you lost, figure out what could have been done differently to avoid this loss."

Note

BTC playing out as expected.
Previous Tweet: "One last small drop to 6150-6100 could still be in the works. I don't see a defined last Sub5 of Sub5 yet"
My Longs entered @ 6122.5.
Took quick scalp profits (closed +20% ROE).
Will place orders again for re-entry (away for a bit).

Screenshot: pbs.twimg.com/media/DkGWmJlVsAAZvme.jpg

Note

Entered Altcoin positions also. I may take profits and re-enter.

Screenshot: pbs.twimg.com/media/DkGa3YOU4AAuMZO.jpg

Note

(Now closed this one at +30% ROE)

Screenshot: pbs.twimg.com/media/DkGf-WqU8AAw9Le.jpg

Note

Exited ADA right on time? XD
My ADA exit price was 1836 (Green Line).
+30% ROE from 1777 entry point (Leveraged).
Price shortly after fell hard. Now touching my Laddered Buy orders again. :)

Note

I hope a lot of you got in on BTC and Alcoins as per this call!
Bitcoin @ ~6610 may be the local top for now (currently here as I was typing this).
Seems to be a decent exit point to take profits, if you're still Long.

Note

can still attempt one last Flag push, maybe to/close ~6700 (so be cautious if shorting on Leverage).
Overall, I expect some retracement soon. Doesn't mean that we're going to drop below yesterday's lows right now. We may still have some up moves tomorrow. I'll analyze later.

Note

Bitcoin "Potential" wave count. This is still very speculative until we have more data to analyze what structure is currently being formed by BTC.

I still posted this as a heads-up, so one can observe for such a pattern forming.

Note

BTC has sharply dumped ~4% since my recommendation to take profits.
I hope you all got out safely and have been profiting. :)

Note

BTC - I took profit on Short positions a little while ago. Flipped to Long positions for scalp, caught at bottom of last drop.
Seeking a push to at least 6500 (prepared to exit if failing).
Depending on how price reacts between the 6500-6600 range, I'll decide if to Short or stay Long.

Note

I posted other mini-updates/thoughts on Twitter today: twitter.com/AndrewEDavis
It's sometimes difficult to keep synced both here and there.

6 hours ago
Exited #Altcoin positions in profit before drop. Stopped out of position with small loss. A mostly neutral exit on this one.

5 hours ago
Picking up nice profits trading/scalping and #Altcoins during this volatility.
(Not recommended - High risk for most)
(Closed those already - Entering and exiting quickly)

Note

BTC - My previous chart which I said was "still very speculative until we have more data", had us going down to these current prices after correction, but I didn't expect so soon. I'm surprised at how small that wave-4 was. Looks like price can still drop to 5900-5600 range.

Note

I'm likely off for the night, may try to get a few more scalp trades before bed.
Please remember: Don't over-trade; Be patient; Wait for good opportunities; Stick to stop-losses; Develop own strategy; Don't try to mimic pro trader's every move.

Recent Account Growth:
Wed: 13.9%
Thur: 15.2%
Fri: Pending, +ve

Note

Another surprise move by BTC, price pumped ~5% in one 3 minute candle...

However, compare this movement with my original chart, where I was expecting an ABCDE correction:
twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1027772652080046080

Could this be playing out?
Movement so far is quite close to what I was predicting.

Previous Count:

I'm not maintaining an official BTC count till things settle a bit (more data to assume what pattern we are in).
My chart is just for consideration at the moment, not Buy/Sell targets.
I'll just do small scalps here and there when I have the chance.

(Got to catch up on work also)

=====

Although BTC was looking like it could drop further to 5800 overnight, I removed all positions before bed, because there was too much sideways movement (drop stalled to happen).

Finished yesterday weak... not happy, but I'll take it.
Account Growth:
Wed: +13.9%
Thur: +15.2%
Fri: +4.8%

Note

BTC - (Just for consideration) - Keep an eye out for any such price movement (pattern) playing out.

(I'm away for a bit)

Note

Bitcoins's price appears to have followed the path suggested in my last post/chart (compare my last chart above with the new chart/post below).

(I'm moving my updates to this new post):

BTC nearing short-term Reversal from this Down-trend

AndrewEDavis

Also on:

Related publications

Bitcoin's Bottom: 6100-5900 in 8-16 days

by AndrewEDavis

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

AndrewEDavis

Also on:

Related publications

Bitcoin's Bottom: 6100-5900 in 8-16 days

by AndrewEDavis