Over the past week, Bitcoin mainly traded between 28 600 USD and 31 411 USD, resulting in the creation of the rectangle pattern. That suggests that the trend is turning neutral in the short-term. At the same time, the daily time frame shows bullish technical developments, implying more upside for Bitcoin in the short term. We will pay close attention to the upper bound of the rectangle as the breakout above it could potentially mark the beginning of another bounce towards the 36 000 USD price tag (especially if the stock market recovers some losses). However, we expect the bearish trend of a higher degree to stay intact. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook on BTCUSD; we still expect an eventual breakdown in the price of Bitcoin and new lows to be formed below 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the current setup on BTCUSD. The yellow rectangle indicates the neutral zone; the rectangle's lower and upper bounds act as support/resistance levels. Breakout to the upside would be bullish, while breakout to the downside would be bearish.
Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish, implying the possibility of continuation of price rise. MACD also points to the upside, which is bullish; however, it still remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX decreases which suggests that the bearish trend started to lose momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows BTCUSD on the daily chart. White horizontal lines indicate particular support levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
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