There’s been a flood of noise in the media over the past few weeks—headlines shouting about uncertainty, new U.S. tariffs, market crashes, and an impending recession.
Years ago, I used to pay close attention to this kind of news, identifying myself as a "fundamental analyst". It didn't take long until I realised that I was looking in the wrong direction.
What changed my mindset was reflecting on how I felt during past market dips and how that feeling often contradicted what actually happened next. In almost every major move, my emotions—heavily influenced by media narratives—led me the wrong way. This time, I believe, is no different.
Despite bearish sentiment and doomsday headlines, I see opportunity. Even if a recession is on the horizon—and I do believe it’s likely—the market has a way of pricing in fear before the real damage hits. That means the upside may start before the worst news becomes obvious.
Before diving into my analysis and strategy, I recommend reading my privous publication, which is also linked to this publication
Chart Analysis & Market Status:
As anticipated, Bitcoin is currently retesting the capitulation price range that was first reached on February 28. Since then, volume has remained relatively low, while the Fear & Greed Index has started to slightly rise—indicating that panic selling may have already subsided.
The price is also sitting around the 20-week EMA, a level that has historically acted as a strong support zone. This alignment suggests that bearish sentiment may already be priced in, and we could be at or near the bottom of the current cycle—regardless of the broader macro fears.
My Current Strategy
🔹 Position: I remain bullish at current levels.
🔹 Exposure: 30% of my capital is already deployed.
Bullish Scenarios
Scenrio 1: (More Likely)
If the market bounces in the next 1–2 weeks, then retests this same price range with a healthy pullback, I’ll deploy another 40% of my capital.
From there, I’ll follow the "blue model" (my projected price path) all the way up until either my timing target or pricing target is hit—whichever comes first.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Scenario 2: (Less likely)
If Bitcoin loses the current support at the 20-week EMA, I’ll allocate 20% at the $71K–$72K range and remain bullish—as the broader macro structure stays intact— considring this price as Wyckoff Spring.
Then I will eploying further 20% at around $80K when market bounces back considering it as Sign of Strength of current Re-Accumolation zone.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Bearish Scenario: (Least Likely)
If Bitcoin breaks below the
73K level—the peak of the previous wave—I’ll deploy another 20% around the 50-week EMA (currently near 
64K).
This would invalidate the current bullish model, but my strategy adapts: my average entry would drop to ~$73K. In that case, I plan to sell on the next bounce that retests the 20-week EMA.
I’ll still keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Final Thoughts:
As I always say: This market is stochastic—not deterministic. You can’t plug in numbers and expect a fixed outcome. There is no perfect formula. That’s why a well-structured Plan B is essential for survival and success.
Don't let headlines write your trades. Let the chart do the talking.
Years ago, I used to pay close attention to this kind of news, identifying myself as a "fundamental analyst". It didn't take long until I realised that I was looking in the wrong direction.
What changed my mindset was reflecting on how I felt during past market dips and how that feeling often contradicted what actually happened next. In almost every major move, my emotions—heavily influenced by media narratives—led me the wrong way. This time, I believe, is no different.
Despite bearish sentiment and doomsday headlines, I see opportunity. Even if a recession is on the horizon—and I do believe it’s likely—the market has a way of pricing in fear before the real damage hits. That means the upside may start before the worst news becomes obvious.
Before diving into my analysis and strategy, I recommend reading my privous publication, which is also linked to this publication
Chart Analysis & Market Status:
As anticipated, Bitcoin is currently retesting the capitulation price range that was first reached on February 28. Since then, volume has remained relatively low, while the Fear & Greed Index has started to slightly rise—indicating that panic selling may have already subsided.
The price is also sitting around the 20-week EMA, a level that has historically acted as a strong support zone. This alignment suggests that bearish sentiment may already be priced in, and we could be at or near the bottom of the current cycle—regardless of the broader macro fears.
My Current Strategy
🔹 Position: I remain bullish at current levels.
🔹 Exposure: 30% of my capital is already deployed.
Bullish Scenarios
Scenrio 1: (More Likely)
If the market bounces in the next 1–2 weeks, then retests this same price range with a healthy pullback, I’ll deploy another 40% of my capital.
From there, I’ll follow the "blue model" (my projected price path) all the way up until either my timing target or pricing target is hit—whichever comes first.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Scenario 2: (Less likely)
If Bitcoin loses the current support at the 20-week EMA, I’ll allocate 20% at the $71K–$72K range and remain bullish—as the broader macro structure stays intact— considring this price as Wyckoff Spring.
Then I will eploying further 20% at around $80K when market bounces back considering it as Sign of Strength of current Re-Accumolation zone.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Bearish Scenario: (Least Likely)
If Bitcoin breaks below the
73K level—the peak of the previous wave—I’ll deploy another 20% around the 50-week EMA (currently near 64K).This would invalidate the current bullish model, but my strategy adapts: my average entry would drop to ~$73K. In that case, I plan to sell on the next bounce that retests the 20-week EMA.
I’ll still keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Final Thoughts:
As I always say: This market is stochastic—not deterministic. You can’t plug in numbers and expect a fixed outcome. There is no perfect formula. That’s why a well-structured Plan B is essential for survival and success.
Don't let headlines write your trades. Let the chart do the talking.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.