Short

Bitcoin may just be a super-b bounce

As for the fundamentals and rising logic of bitcoin, I have published many views and analyses on different platforms before, but they are not explained here. In a market with a history of less than 10 years, many things are being improved, and we also lack the basis for reference. But from the current data, in fact, the market does not have a real bull market, more like a super b wave rebound. That may be hard for many to accept these days.

Let's analyze the basis of the bull market. First, fundamentals support the bull market. For example, the stock market is related to the economic cycle.

I. fundamentals

At present, we have seen that the fundamentals of the digital currency market have not changed. Many people say that there are more and more institutions entering the market, but they may have overlooked a problem. All formal financial institutions are under supervision, and their capital investment must be in compliance.

In the United States, there are so many derivatives to invest in that we can see the big short, customers can design their own products, as long as someone is willing to trade, they will be listed. So digital currency is not an indispensable market. Bakkt, nasdaq, fidelity, and even facebook are testing the waters by laying out the crypto market. But for institutions with trillions of assets, investing tens of millions of dollars is just like us ordinary people spending a few yuan on a lottery ticket. Can you say that we are going to enter the lottery industry on a large scale?

So the so-called institutional entry may be limited to private equity, small private institutions, but what is their size and number? We don't know, but one thing we can see is that the total market value of bitcoin is 270 billion us dollars. Compared with last may, bitcoin has regained its value at that time, but other tokens lost 200 billion us dollars. What does it mean? Think for yourself.

Fundamentals have not changed, we should be more profound analysis. The SEC has not yet approved the successful case for etf, the formal institutions will not start, everything is layout, and at this time, if the price of bitcoin has been high, do they come in to play a role?

As for the ecology supported by technology, we are all in the stage of being idle at present, and the projects that are actually implemented are very limited. The so-called activity of bitcoin is also reflected in the transaction level. Scenarios are nowhere near as useful as the Internet. The chances of becoming an engine of growth for the world economy in the short term are slim. Do not have enough foundation, with what attract capital to enter? Can mere speculation feed blockchain? Governments aside, the markets themselves may not agree.

From the perspective of industry development, the problems of excessive speculation and lack of supervision have not been solved. If the market is not standardized, it cannot develop healthily. Therefore, before experiencing a real purge, I don't think the market will enter a bull market.

Second, the money

From the perspective of liquidity, global economic uncertainty may be more cautious for investors. However, from the market value of digital currency market, we can see that only bitcoin is recovering, not the market. This is already very telling.

The current 12-hour and daily level departures have not disappeared, and while the previous three departures have been met with dogged resistance by bulls, this time we can't say we're letting our guard down. Rules are meant to be broken. We need to respect the market.

Strategy, continue to hold BTC spot, open hedging, waiting for high short opportunity

peter-l

30年的A股投资经历，水平虽然不高，但经验足够丰富。熊市避坑，牛市逃顶，对于新手可能有所帮助。
需要每日分析，请搜索微信号peter-tqbj，需要股市投资建议搜索星球{抱团取暖，迎接A股牛市}，或者星球号64802450

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