BTC - Bull Market? (Gauchian Channel Analysis)
Updated
Hi Guys! I love everything TA, currently its just a hobby but im using these posts to express my thoughts and solidify what ive learnt thus far. So this is not financial advice by any means, its just to challenge MY VIEWS on the status quo of whether or not we are ina bull market or bear market.
Alot of my previous charts whether BTC or other asset, in my opinion has overload of info. So my aim recently is to do things simple, which has allowed me to up my charting game.
Just note, BTC is my favorite asset to trade, i also believe in its tech and am extremely long term bullish BUT i don't allow biases to take over my decisions when i trade.
Currently i feel like the market sentiment is leaning both bullish / bearish so i felt like digging for myself and trying to use TA to make sense of the direction.
Now going to my analysis!
I got 2 indicators on my chart.
1. Gauchian CHannel
2. Yellow Line - 21 EMA
The chart is on the 6 day time frame -> Which i love to use, cuz it gives me more clarity for long-term/semi long term lens
The chart shows interactions between the 21 EMA and the Gauchian Channel.
Basically, 2 scenarios
1. Bearish which is indicated by the 21 EMA crosses downwards onto a Green Gauchian CHannel, and price action moving into channel channel. EVery single time we've done this, it has indicated as stated by previous history, WE WERE IN A BEAR MARKET. Everytime we enter the channel, price action eventually crashed & went below channel. The EMA will always move down with price below channel as well. When price action is below the channel, we are in the depths of the bear market.
2. Bullish which is indicated by the 21 EMA crossing upward into a red gauchian channel, while price action is moving into channel. Every single time we've done this,it has indicated as stated by previous history WE WERE IN A BULL MARKET. Everytime we enter the channel from below the channel, price action went into channel, it indicates the beginning stages of bull market and when we are above the channel we explode in price. ALso note, when price action moves above, to confirm price should come down to test channel as support.
So, in real time - Price action has moved into the channel but a cross has NOT yet happened. But MA's are kind of a lagging indicator in that it follows the price. So since price action is in the channel, it means that the EMA will also move up along with this recent pump because its averaging the price of BTC . SO if we continue to stay above, eventually the EMA will cross above and it will indicate that the bull market has started.
So technically, we are still not by this chart in a bull market. Watch this chart like a hawk! If we get this cross, we could be starting our new cycle. But there is always risk such as invalidations of previous patterns cuz ultimately we dont know what the markets will do. So pay attention to the 6 day close and movement of 21 EMA (yellow line).
ALSO since there are less false flags, you can determine from this chart that:
1. selling above Gauchian channel is best time to sell
2. Buying below guachian channel is best time to buy
Hope this was insightful! CHECK out my other charts on BTC . Keep an eye out for more charts like this! Let me know what yall are thinking as well!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise, i am not a financial advisor@ Any investing or trading decisions of yours should be taken with your own analysis, and always protect yourself with stop losses!
THANKS.
Alot of my previous charts whether BTC or other asset, in my opinion has overload of info. So my aim recently is to do things simple, which has allowed me to up my charting game.
Just note, BTC is my favorite asset to trade, i also believe in its tech and am extremely long term bullish BUT i don't allow biases to take over my decisions when i trade.
Currently i feel like the market sentiment is leaning both bullish / bearish so i felt like digging for myself and trying to use TA to make sense of the direction.
Now going to my analysis!
I got 2 indicators on my chart.
1. Gauchian CHannel
2. Yellow Line - 21 EMA
The chart is on the 6 day time frame -> Which i love to use, cuz it gives me more clarity for long-term/semi long term lens
The chart shows interactions between the 21 EMA and the Gauchian Channel.
Basically, 2 scenarios
1. Bearish which is indicated by the 21 EMA crosses downwards onto a Green Gauchian CHannel, and price action moving into channel channel. EVery single time we've done this, it has indicated as stated by previous history, WE WERE IN A BEAR MARKET. Everytime we enter the channel, price action eventually crashed & went below channel. The EMA will always move down with price below channel as well. When price action is below the channel, we are in the depths of the bear market.
2. Bullish which is indicated by the 21 EMA crossing upward into a red gauchian channel, while price action is moving into channel. Every single time we've done this,it has indicated as stated by previous history WE WERE IN A BULL MARKET. Everytime we enter the channel from below the channel, price action went into channel, it indicates the beginning stages of bull market and when we are above the channel we explode in price. ALso note, when price action moves above, to confirm price should come down to test channel as support.
So, in real time - Price action has moved into the channel but a cross has NOT yet happened. But MA's are kind of a lagging indicator in that it follows the price. So since price action is in the channel, it means that the EMA will also move up along with this recent pump because its averaging the price of BTC . SO if we continue to stay above, eventually the EMA will cross above and it will indicate that the bull market has started.
So technically, we are still not by this chart in a bull market. Watch this chart like a hawk! If we get this cross, we could be starting our new cycle. But there is always risk such as invalidations of previous patterns cuz ultimately we dont know what the markets will do. So pay attention to the 6 day close and movement of 21 EMA (yellow line).
ALSO since there are less false flags, you can determine from this chart that:
1. selling above Gauchian channel is best time to sell
2. Buying below guachian channel is best time to buy
Hope this was insightful! CHECK out my other charts on BTC . Keep an eye out for more charts like this! Let me know what yall are thinking as well!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise, i am not a financial advisor@ Any investing or trading decisions of yours should be taken with your own analysis, and always protect yourself with stop losses!
THANKS.
Note
********PLEASE NOTICE: FIrst example, we got rejected by Gauchian channel and actually came back down below channel in 2015. SO don't rule that out for current price action. We are also hitting major resistance atm.
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