BTC/USD - Ichimoku V Calculation, P Wave, Price & Number Theory
Updated
This is an educational post analysing BTC/USD 1 day chart using a mixture of Goichi Hosoda's Ichimoku Ichimoku Kinko Hyo System, Cloud, Number Theory, Price, Time and Wave Principles and introducing you to these methods if its your first time hearing about them. I have been experimenting with the entire Ichimoku System so I hope that you find this post interesting and helpful.
The Basics:
BTC is still in the Bearish Zone under the Ichimoku Cloud Equilibrium Zone on this 1 day timeframe.
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the MID-POINT of the SHORT-TERM momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the MID-POINT of the MID-TERM momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that moment at the moment is sideways. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the price from the past.
Moving on from the Basics and on to more advance Price, Time, number and Wave examples:
Using The Ichimoku Price Theory V Calculation V= B+(B-C) and changing it to Negative so it becomes V=B-(C-B)
Our first Pivot point is A at $68,990 which serves as our base or plateu.
Our second Pivot point is B at $32,926 and is part of the calculation.
Our third Pivot point is C at $48,462 and is also part of the calculation.
Using the Calculation V=B-(C-B) we have:
(C) $48,462 - (B) $32,926 = $15,536.
(B) $32,926 - (C-B) $15,536 = $17,390.
Note that at the time of typing this, BTC’s low is around $17,695 which is pretty close to $17,390. So is this the bottom??? Probably not, because BTC is also in a Bearish P Wave as indicated by the light blue Descending I Wave and 2 Converging Trend-lines. This is the second Bearish P Wave that BTC has been in recently on this 1 day timeframe as can been seen from the previous light red Bearish P Wave.
Note that I have used a V Calculation because the C is just past the 50% Fib re-tracement level. Ideally it should be at the 61.8% fib level between A and B but because its past the 50% it is slightly short but way too long to be a N, E or NT calculation so V will suffice.
Note that the Price Targets are potential price targets which can lead to continuations or sometimes fail. In some respect, they are points where you may want to take profit or not.
After many years of mathematical study, Goichi Hosoda finally settled on a set of numbers for his Number Theory, these numbers are, 9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129, 172, 200~257. Note that 56 is not part of these numbers. These numbers are called Kihon Suchi and are used to project how many days, hours, mins (depending on what timeframe you are in) ahead a new High or Low, reversal ect may likely to occur using this Ichimoku Number Theory System.
With Ichimoku number theory/time span, we don’t need to be 100% accurate with the numbers. Note that the distance between A and B is 75 bars, that’s 1 less then Goichi Hosoda’s 76 but that is absolutely fine with this system. Finding actual patterns is more important.
Note that this V calculation could be lasting 257 Bars.
We can see that from our BTC high at A we had 75 Bars until our low at B.
We had 64 Bars from B to C but 65 Bars crosses over and leads close to a drop.
From 2 Bars after C we have 42 Bars with a new low and the start of the Converging light red P Wave Trend-lines.
I have added 26 Bars from the start of this recent downwards momentum, I have also added 33 Bars so only time will tell if a pattern emerges with these.
I have not overwhelmed this chart with timespans and numbers, I have only added at places that caught my interest, and as can be seen on this chart, some of Goichi Hosoda’s numbers have been at points or close to points when things have happened to the price.
So using the Negative V Calculation along with the P Wave, Timespan and Number Theory would have served you in good stead if you were shorting just after the price crossed B when moving from C especially as we have not finished the 257 Bar cycle yet.
I hope this post has been helpful and informative and has shown you that the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is so much more then just the cloud, it has its own Wave, Time, Price and Number Theories which i am by no means a master as i'm still a novice but i’d thought id share what i have been working on. I will hopefully update this post with more examples whenI have free time.
I hope that this has been helpful.
Notes:
Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line = Mid-Point of the Short-Term Momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud Base Line = Mid-Point of the Mid-Term Momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span = Actual Momentum Direction right now.
Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) = Green Line on edge the Cloud.
Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span B (Senkou SpanB) = Red Line on edge the Cloud.
Equilibrium Zone = In-between the Cloud.
Bullish Zone = Above the Cloud.
Bearish Zone = Below the Cloud.
V Calculation = A,B,C,D pattern.
P Wave = Red and Blue Converging Trend-lines.
Note that P Waves can be seen as Goichi Hosoda's version of Bullish and Bearish Pennant patterns.
Note that the Blue Bar Lines on the chart are not support and resistance lines, they are just showing the distance between 2 points using Goichi Hosoda’s Numbers.
The Basics:
BTC is still in the Bearish Zone under the Ichimoku Cloud Equilibrium Zone on this 1 day timeframe.
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the MID-POINT of the SHORT-TERM momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the MID-POINT of the MID-TERM momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that moment at the moment is sideways. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the price from the past.
Moving on from the Basics and on to more advance Price, Time, number and Wave examples:
Using The Ichimoku Price Theory V Calculation V= B+(B-C) and changing it to Negative so it becomes V=B-(C-B)
Our first Pivot point is A at $68,990 which serves as our base or plateu.
Our second Pivot point is B at $32,926 and is part of the calculation.
Our third Pivot point is C at $48,462 and is also part of the calculation.
Using the Calculation V=B-(C-B) we have:
(C) $48,462 - (B) $32,926 = $15,536.
(B) $32,926 - (C-B) $15,536 = $17,390.
Note that at the time of typing this, BTC’s low is around $17,695 which is pretty close to $17,390. So is this the bottom??? Probably not, because BTC is also in a Bearish P Wave as indicated by the light blue Descending I Wave and 2 Converging Trend-lines. This is the second Bearish P Wave that BTC has been in recently on this 1 day timeframe as can been seen from the previous light red Bearish P Wave.
Note that I have used a V Calculation because the C is just past the 50% Fib re-tracement level. Ideally it should be at the 61.8% fib level between A and B but because its past the 50% it is slightly short but way too long to be a N, E or NT calculation so V will suffice.
Note that the Price Targets are potential price targets which can lead to continuations or sometimes fail. In some respect, they are points where you may want to take profit or not.
After many years of mathematical study, Goichi Hosoda finally settled on a set of numbers for his Number Theory, these numbers are, 9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129, 172, 200~257. Note that 56 is not part of these numbers. These numbers are called Kihon Suchi and are used to project how many days, hours, mins (depending on what timeframe you are in) ahead a new High or Low, reversal ect may likely to occur using this Ichimoku Number Theory System.
With Ichimoku number theory/time span, we don’t need to be 100% accurate with the numbers. Note that the distance between A and B is 75 bars, that’s 1 less then Goichi Hosoda’s 76 but that is absolutely fine with this system. Finding actual patterns is more important.
Note that this V calculation could be lasting 257 Bars.
We can see that from our BTC high at A we had 75 Bars until our low at B.
We had 64 Bars from B to C but 65 Bars crosses over and leads close to a drop.
From 2 Bars after C we have 42 Bars with a new low and the start of the Converging light red P Wave Trend-lines.
I have added 26 Bars from the start of this recent downwards momentum, I have also added 33 Bars so only time will tell if a pattern emerges with these.
I have not overwhelmed this chart with timespans and numbers, I have only added at places that caught my interest, and as can be seen on this chart, some of Goichi Hosoda’s numbers have been at points or close to points when things have happened to the price.
So using the Negative V Calculation along with the P Wave, Timespan and Number Theory would have served you in good stead if you were shorting just after the price crossed B when moving from C especially as we have not finished the 257 Bar cycle yet.
I hope this post has been helpful and informative and has shown you that the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is so much more then just the cloud, it has its own Wave, Time, Price and Number Theories which i am by no means a master as i'm still a novice but i’d thought id share what i have been working on. I will hopefully update this post with more examples whenI have free time.
I hope that this has been helpful.
Notes:
Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line = Mid-Point of the Short-Term Momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud Base Line = Mid-Point of the Mid-Term Momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span = Actual Momentum Direction right now.
Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) = Green Line on edge the Cloud.
Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span B (Senkou SpanB) = Red Line on edge the Cloud.
Equilibrium Zone = In-between the Cloud.
Bullish Zone = Above the Cloud.
Bearish Zone = Below the Cloud.
V Calculation = A,B,C,D pattern.
P Wave = Red and Blue Converging Trend-lines.
Note that P Waves can be seen as Goichi Hosoda's version of Bullish and Bearish Pennant patterns.
Note that the Blue Bar Lines on the chart are not support and resistance lines, they are just showing the distance between 2 points using Goichi Hosoda’s Numbers.
Note
Here is an example of the Positive V Calculation V=B+(B-C). So for this our first Pivot point is A at $37,261 which serves as our base.
Our second Pivot point is B at $52,928 and is part of the calculation.
Our third Pivot point is C at $39,348 and is also part of the calculation.
Using the Positive V Calculation V=B+(B-C) we have:
(B) $52,928 - (C) $39,348 = $13,580.
(B) $52,928 + (B-C) $13,580 = $66,508
Note that the Price was expected at $66,508 but the price actually went higher to around $66,943 before retracing.
Note that this V Calculation Pattern lasted for 77 Bars just 1 more day than Hosoda's 76 number and the big Candle drop B happened after 33 Bars on the 34th Bar. Also note that the Rise to D happened after 9 Bars after C.
Note
Here are real world examples of Ichimoku Y Wave, P Wave, I Wave, V Wave and N Wave.Note that it doesn't really matter how many times the converging trend-lines of the P Wave and diverging trend-lines of the Y Wave are touched by the price.
Note
Amendment:With the above sentence "Note that 56 is not part of these numbers." Please note that I meant to say 52 not 56. Doh!
Note
Looking closer in at the 4hr BTC/USD chart, we can see that within the P Wave we have already had a Positive NT Calculation.NT = C+(C-A)
(C) $19,740 - (A) $17,578 = $2,162
(C) $19,740 + (C-A) $2,168 = $21,902
As you can clearly see the vertical line going through the middle of C is rising from the Low at A and giving us our PROJECTED price at $21,902. The Price rose to D at $21,864 which is just slightly less of the projected $21,902. This just goes to show how accurate the Price Projection of Ichimoku can be.
Note that this NT Calculation price projection lasted for 46 Bars which is just 4 more Bars than Goichi Hosoda's 42. After our High at B, the rise to D started after 9 Bars and also 25 Bars from our Low at A which is one Bar less than Goichi Hosoda's 26 number.
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