Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin - 66000 could have been another lower high and we trade back down to 50000 next. Unclear since bulls got above the August high but have not yet touched the bear trend line from the ath. Anyhow, huge tails above and below the monthly bars. Big trading range on the weekly and monthly chart. Favoring the bears slightly for October.
comment: Bulls printed a bullish monthly bar but they had to close it above 65000 for a big buy signal going into October. Right now I think it’s again more neutral than anything else. Big trading range for 7 months and it will end over the next 3 months.
current market cycle: trading range (again a triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls fumbled the ball today imo. They had a perfect setup for higher prices and the drop down to below 64000 should not have happened. If they can get above 65000 again soon, they might pull it off for 68000 but right now I think market is in balance again.
Invalidation is below 62300.
bear case: Bears need prices below 62300, that’s the whole magic right now. Until they get it, it’s a trading range and you should not bet on a breakout, trying to be the first.
Invalidation is above 65000.
short term: Neutral as can be.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Short 66000 once bears closed 3 consecutive bars that got bigger, below the 1h 20ema.
tl;dr
bitcoin - 66000 could have been another lower high and we trade back down to 50000 next. Unclear since bulls got above the August high but have not yet touched the bear trend line from the ath. Anyhow, huge tails above and below the monthly bars. Big trading range on the weekly and monthly chart. Favoring the bears slightly for October.
comment: Bulls printed a bullish monthly bar but they had to close it above 65000 for a big buy signal going into October. Right now I think it’s again more neutral than anything else. Big trading range for 7 months and it will end over the next 3 months.
current market cycle: trading range (again a triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls fumbled the ball today imo. They had a perfect setup for higher prices and the drop down to below 64000 should not have happened. If they can get above 65000 again soon, they might pull it off for 68000 but right now I think market is in balance again.
Invalidation is below 62300.
bear case: Bears need prices below 62300, that’s the whole magic right now. Until they get it, it’s a trading range and you should not bet on a breakout, trying to be the first.
Invalidation is above 65000.
short term: Neutral as can be.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Short 66000 once bears closed 3 consecutive bars that got bigger, below the 1h 20ema.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.