BitcoinUpdated Bitcoin’s $100K Battle: Why the Lows Matter More Than the Highs
Rejections are part of Bitcoin’s journey, and they often come from predictable places. While I fully expect BTC to eventually R/S Flip 100K, it doesn’t need to happen today—or even this month. In fact, at this stage, the lows are more critical to watch than the highs.
The Current Setup
We’ve just seen a Death Cross between the 21-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages on the BTC Daily Chart, signaling the potential for more downside. These shorter-term moving averages often indicate near-term trends, but this isn’t necessarily a cause for panic. The Trump Pump, driven by today’s election certification and the upcoming inauguration, could unwind the Death Cross relatively quickly.
Instead of speculating, it’s better to observe how price action evolves. While a successful R/S Flip at 100K would be a clear sign of strength, we’ve just experienced a rejection. This doesn’t rule out another attempt, but for now, I see the 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a critical level to watch.
Key Levels to Watch
Above the 21-Day SMA: Staying above this level keeps the Trump Pump alive and signals resilience.
Below the 21-Day SMA: Losing this level could lead to a deeper correction:
First target: Retest support at 91.5K
Next potential targets: 86.5K and the CME Gap at 77.9K
Possible low: 76K, which aligns with the prior consolidation range.
A move down to 76K would represent a 30% correction from the recent ATH—well within the range of 20%-50% corrections seen in previous bull markets. It's worth noting that with the right catalyst, price could drop 50% from the ATH this month and the MACRO trend would still be intact, but I don't think that's a high probability move at this point.
Bigger Picture: MACRO Bullish
Let me be clear: This is not a bearish post. I remain MACRO bullish on Bitcoin for this cycle. However, pullbacks and corrections are part of every healthy market, and identifying key levels can help us prepare for the next leg up.
Right now, the focus isn’t on when Bitcoin breaks 100K but on how it holds support during this period of consolidation and FUD. A solid foundation here will strengthen the case for a sustainable move higher in the future.
The Current Setup
We’ve just seen a Death Cross between the 21-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages on the BTC Daily Chart, signaling the potential for more downside. These shorter-term moving averages often indicate near-term trends, but this isn’t necessarily a cause for panic. The Trump Pump, driven by today’s election certification and the upcoming inauguration, could unwind the Death Cross relatively quickly.
Instead of speculating, it’s better to observe how price action evolves. While a successful R/S Flip at 100K would be a clear sign of strength, we’ve just experienced a rejection. This doesn’t rule out another attempt, but for now, I see the 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a critical level to watch.
Key Levels to Watch
Above the 21-Day SMA: Staying above this level keeps the Trump Pump alive and signals resilience.
Below the 21-Day SMA: Losing this level could lead to a deeper correction:
First target: Retest support at 91.5K
Next potential targets: 86.5K and the CME Gap at 77.9K
Possible low: 76K, which aligns with the prior consolidation range.
A move down to 76K would represent a 30% correction from the recent ATH—well within the range of 20%-50% corrections seen in previous bull markets. It's worth noting that with the right catalyst, price could drop 50% from the ATH this month and the MACRO trend would still be intact, but I don't think that's a high probability move at this point.
Bigger Picture: MACRO Bullish
Let me be clear: This is not a bearish post. I remain MACRO bullish on Bitcoin for this cycle. However, pullbacks and corrections are part of every healthy market, and identifying key levels can help us prepare for the next leg up.
Right now, the focus isn’t on when Bitcoin breaks 100K but on how it holds support during this period of consolidation and FUD. A solid foundation here will strengthen the case for a sustainable move higher in the future.
Trade active
Bitcoin has broken resistance at 100k. Now the question is whether or not bulls can validate an R/S Flip above 100k, what the profit targets are if it does, and what the downside targets are if we see a deep correction. It's all illustrated in today's BitBreak Analysis on YouTube. youtube.com/live/kdu6I2PTRwE?si=vE2K52wwe0120d08
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