BitcoinUpdated How to recognize emotional phase in stock market?
Welcome everybody to my fresh idea on BTC. As You may know, my statement is usually bearish on this market because of many signs. First sign is, of course, big picture of Bitcoin. There We had 70% amplitude from top to nearest bottom. This is very important information telling You that buisness is being regulated and tight controlled by owners. This means that there are no easy money anymore. Atleast not now, in near future. I read news about tether printing all the time so this puts BTC in doubt...
Okay, let's play some technicals. So many positive patterns? Well, You need to assume that almost everybody see inverted H&S or falling wedge. Trading view is full of patterns so You might see atleast one of them. Let's say, some patterns will work out, why not? This would be the answer for tether printing (buyers have more money to rise the price), shorters are very often easy to locate and being eliminated by small green ticks. Don't loose sight! 9k is still very small jump for Crypto :) So there We go, double breakout, one from falling wedge and second from Inverted H&S. But there is something wrong on this chart, don't You see? I have strange feeling that traps are incoming before very strong and volatile impulse. As You could guess, I mean volume. Interest is the most important thing for stock market. This is what most of experienced and succesful traders would say to You about stock market in a pill. What drives Bitcoin down? Answer is there: low interest rate. Volume decreases week by week and it is slowly process so You can't see it. Huge green candles cover reality and urge You to think there is still chance for moon. This is why I would put warning sign on the road. Breakthrough resistance in a bear market is very indecisive moment. Because You never can be divine there. Especially when breakout occurs with very low volume(!).
If You look for trade somewhere I advice You to do the best trade: it is called 'no trade'. For now. Reaching patterns targets are great short entry points, nothing more than this. Every other behaviour will be just trap, even retesting broken resistance of falling wedge pattern.
My forecast sounds: I expect sideways for some time. After this We will se more clear picture and if Market Gods are that merciful they will throw some clear sign like 10% change in price. I will keep You updated there.
Okay, let's play some technicals. So many positive patterns? Well, You need to assume that almost everybody see inverted H&S or falling wedge. Trading view is full of patterns so You might see atleast one of them. Let's say, some patterns will work out, why not? This would be the answer for tether printing (buyers have more money to rise the price), shorters are very often easy to locate and being eliminated by small green ticks. Don't loose sight! 9k is still very small jump for Crypto :) So there We go, double breakout, one from falling wedge and second from Inverted H&S. But there is something wrong on this chart, don't You see? I have strange feeling that traps are incoming before very strong and volatile impulse. As You could guess, I mean volume. Interest is the most important thing for stock market. This is what most of experienced and succesful traders would say to You about stock market in a pill. What drives Bitcoin down? Answer is there: low interest rate. Volume decreases week by week and it is slowly process so You can't see it. Huge green candles cover reality and urge You to think there is still chance for moon. This is why I would put warning sign on the road. Breakthrough resistance in a bear market is very indecisive moment. Because You never can be divine there. Especially when breakout occurs with very low volume(!).
If You look for trade somewhere I advice You to do the best trade: it is called 'no trade'. For now. Reaching patterns targets are great short entry points, nothing more than this. Every other behaviour will be just trap, even retesting broken resistance of falling wedge pattern.
My forecast sounds: I expect sideways for some time. After this We will se more clear picture and if Market Gods are that merciful they will throw some clear sign like 10% change in price. I will keep You updated there.
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Now I will use 1D chart as the best time frame. If You track my ideas from time to time You could meet with many moving averages used. This time I am going to repeat one of them: EMA 12. This is very tight indicator that could help set up short position in bear market and long position in bull market. If You paint this on Your chart You could see how was it accurate in past. On this piece of chart EMA 12 has just declined the price twice since last LH. Is this good short entry point? I haven't changed my mind and price hasn't decided yet what to do at current level. Tomorrow could say something more, but We need to remember that solving triangle formation is near, and in case of error loss would be very high.
1D chart
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Breaking orange support line would open doors to retesting support of triangle formation at 7000-7200 levels!4hr chart
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How do You think? Will it bounce?4hr chart
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Now going down to next checkpoint4hr chart
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If You are looking for trade there could be some short opportunity while retesting broken support4hr chart
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I am buying some BTCNote
Short term trading setup explained:Buy till support of falling wedge, stop below.
Short while retesting orange broken support, stop right above.
4hr chart
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Downtempo is becoming less rapid, bounces are highly possible :)Note
However, We still wait for yellow support of falling wedge retest!Note
There is fight on yellow support line of falling wedge pattern and fight is fierce We don't know direction of next candle, my advice is to flatten account.4 hr chart
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Anytime You could play on breakouts with small amount of Your portfolio, but it is going to end soon. After this tough breakout We could think about long soon and We need all conditons met with reality to consider comfortable entry. If RSI behaves this way, We could be almost sure that second bottoming on undervalued zone would be perfect buy.4hr chart
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pretty nice slide, eh? Don't worry if You missed those big moves, always think forward and prepare plan for jump in opposite direction :) RSI is coming to natural zone, everything goes as planned.4hr chart
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Second retest, I expect next impulse down or coiling on broken support.4hr chart
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RSI still fighting with gravity, market shows no live willing. Betting on dump is quite risky now since bearish signs started being fake, like today's upwards breakout from small bearish flag. If price will dump again, there would be good buying opportunity.4hr chart
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I see nice bear traps setting up one by one. I suppose We could bounce from here. If I arrive at keyboard in time I will throw chart.Note
OK, this is it. I put decent warning and If You would buy 4 hours ago when I called bounce, You would fit in the pattern here :) Alright let's talk about concretes. I wanted to show You this picture before it went up, but We clearly see the price behaves more or less how I predicted. It means, coiling on broken support of falling wedge is good gambling line that market owners use to trick traders. This kind of formations are very indecisive and I assume that there is big battle, strange patterns that seems bearish but final meaning is always vague. I have marked very important short term horizontal line that is good tool for proper inference. Below this line bulls don't want to give bears free hellway, every stronger bear is halted and checked carefully. Blue circles as bear traps. Of course We still remain bearish and there is very weak possibility for uptrend recover, however healthy pullback would provide us perfect reentry zone. This time pullback could last for a couple of days to lift the price atleast 20%.60 min chart
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Good Sunday! You wonder where is second bottoming on 4hr RSI. The answer is here: it doesn't need to bottom twice. Second time would ground You into certainty but market doesn't like to do so ;) I wish I could show You my thinking on chart now but again I am not able to acces keyboard. I showed You bear traps yesterday. Today We had one, little divergence where price ticked a small amount below previous low. My feelings are clear: since market is driven by pure emotions You could profit on impatient traders!
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More or less We have landed in desired area. Crossing support of triangle formation is highly possible. ~20 RSI value would be good buy.4hr chart
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Probably We will see dump here. 4 hr candle closed with high wick and it is close to support. Selling the breakdown would be the best short entry plan.4hr chart
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Well, this is it. Bears were waiting for it, RSI started to sink and I expect really low value of this indicator this time. I will track this carefully so reversal sign will be caught quickly. TP zone is for partial profit, stop loss should be above broken support of triangle pattern.4hr chart
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Stop loss, let's see if price is able to pass through short specified on chart.Note
Breakdown, short opportunity15 min chart
Trade closed: stop reached
marked mixed, wider time frame analysis is needed
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