Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Bitcoin is undergoing a crucial moment in its evolution. Fifteen years after its creation, this cryptocurrency has transformed from a simple digital alternative to traditional money into a consolidated unit of measurement, payment method, and potential store of value. And perhaps most importantly, it could be entering a new structural phase amidst a global transformation of the monetary system.
A Response to the Fiat System
Originally conceived as a reaction to the excessive money printing by central banks and the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies, Bitcoin has become an increasingly utilized tool. Not only in everyday transactions —BTC ATMs can now be found in many cities worldwide— but also as a real alternative to traditional assets.
Stability and Market Maturity
Over the last year, Bitcoin's price has shown a much more stable evolution than in previous cycles, leaving behind extreme levels of volatility. Zones that previously acted as ceilings now serve as supports, suggesting maturation of the asset and greater institutional and retail acceptance.
Bitcoin vs. the Rest of the Crypto Ecosystem
While other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum continue to reflect significant fluctuations, Bitcoin stands out as the most robust asset in the crypto ecosystem. This position is further reinforced in a context of global monetary expansion, where the money supply has grown again after a brief contraction, surpassing even the peaks seen in 2024.
Bitcoin as a Safe Haven Amid Fiscal and Monetary Imbalances
This environment strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. With governments increasing debt, deficits, and public spending, and central banks maintaining accommodative monetary policies, traditional limits seem to blur. Especially in emerging economies, where the deterioration of purchasing power is more pronounced, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as an alternative safe haven.
Technical Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin's price in recent weeks has shown a strong correlation with the fluctuations driven by Trump’s tariffs. After hitting lows on Monday the 7th and Wednesday the 9th, the precious token has appreciated back to the mid-range it has been pivoting in since February. The lower end of a long-term range fluctuating between $93,490 and $81,378. The RSI indicator currently shows no significant movements, confirming the point of control (POC) around the current price of $84,745. The moving averages from the Asian and European markets suggest that the price does not seem likely to move far from the POC for the moment. Observing Fibonacci retracements, we can see the price is currently fluctuating between 61.80% and 78.60%. This is generally a zone where a correction could occur towards the 50% level, which aligns with the lower range at $81,378. Delta zones indicate strong bearish pressure in this area, so the price might revisit this level before reinforcing the price tested more than four times.
Why Has Bitcoin Recently Fallen, Along with the Rest of the Market?
Despite this structural evolution, Bitcoin has experienced a correction in recent days, in line with the general drop in risk assets. Some of the main factors explaining this pullback include:
• Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: The rise of the DXY index has pressured several dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin.
• Increase in Bond Yields: The rise in the 10-year Treasury bond yields has encouraged capital rotation towards safer instruments, at the expense of more volatile assets.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The growing uncertainty in the Middle East has generated risk aversion, favoring gold while penalizing the crypto market.
• Profit-Taking After the Halving: After the strong appreciation following April’s halving, many investors opted to lock in profits, creating additional bearish pressure.
• Liquidations in the Derivatives Market: High leveraged exposure triggered a cascade of automatic liquidations when key technical levels were broken.
A Temporary Adjustment or a Structural Opportunity?
Ultimately, although Bitcoin has suffered a recent correction, its long-term fundamentals appear to remain strong. The cryptocurrency has not only passed multiple tests throughout its history but now projects itself as a systemic asset in the new financial order. Just as gold did in earlier times, Bitcoin may be positioning itself as the mirror of the monetary excesses in the current system.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Bitcoin is undergoing a crucial moment in its evolution. Fifteen years after its creation, this cryptocurrency has transformed from a simple digital alternative to traditional money into a consolidated unit of measurement, payment method, and potential store of value. And perhaps most importantly, it could be entering a new structural phase amidst a global transformation of the monetary system.
A Response to the Fiat System
Originally conceived as a reaction to the excessive money printing by central banks and the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies, Bitcoin has become an increasingly utilized tool. Not only in everyday transactions —BTC ATMs can now be found in many cities worldwide— but also as a real alternative to traditional assets.
Stability and Market Maturity
Over the last year, Bitcoin's price has shown a much more stable evolution than in previous cycles, leaving behind extreme levels of volatility. Zones that previously acted as ceilings now serve as supports, suggesting maturation of the asset and greater institutional and retail acceptance.
Bitcoin vs. the Rest of the Crypto Ecosystem
While other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum continue to reflect significant fluctuations, Bitcoin stands out as the most robust asset in the crypto ecosystem. This position is further reinforced in a context of global monetary expansion, where the money supply has grown again after a brief contraction, surpassing even the peaks seen in 2024.
Bitcoin as a Safe Haven Amid Fiscal and Monetary Imbalances
This environment strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. With governments increasing debt, deficits, and public spending, and central banks maintaining accommodative monetary policies, traditional limits seem to blur. Especially in emerging economies, where the deterioration of purchasing power is more pronounced, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as an alternative safe haven.
Technical Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin's price in recent weeks has shown a strong correlation with the fluctuations driven by Trump’s tariffs. After hitting lows on Monday the 7th and Wednesday the 9th, the precious token has appreciated back to the mid-range it has been pivoting in since February. The lower end of a long-term range fluctuating between $93,490 and $81,378. The RSI indicator currently shows no significant movements, confirming the point of control (POC) around the current price of $84,745. The moving averages from the Asian and European markets suggest that the price does not seem likely to move far from the POC for the moment. Observing Fibonacci retracements, we can see the price is currently fluctuating between 61.80% and 78.60%. This is generally a zone where a correction could occur towards the 50% level, which aligns with the lower range at $81,378. Delta zones indicate strong bearish pressure in this area, so the price might revisit this level before reinforcing the price tested more than four times.
Why Has Bitcoin Recently Fallen, Along with the Rest of the Market?
Despite this structural evolution, Bitcoin has experienced a correction in recent days, in line with the general drop in risk assets. Some of the main factors explaining this pullback include:
• Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: The rise of the DXY index has pressured several dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin.
• Increase in Bond Yields: The rise in the 10-year Treasury bond yields has encouraged capital rotation towards safer instruments, at the expense of more volatile assets.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The growing uncertainty in the Middle East has generated risk aversion, favoring gold while penalizing the crypto market.
• Profit-Taking After the Halving: After the strong appreciation following April’s halving, many investors opted to lock in profits, creating additional bearish pressure.
• Liquidations in the Derivatives Market: High leveraged exposure triggered a cascade of automatic liquidations when key technical levels were broken.
A Temporary Adjustment or a Structural Opportunity?
Ultimately, although Bitcoin has suffered a recent correction, its long-term fundamentals appear to remain strong. The cryptocurrency has not only passed multiple tests throughout its history but now projects itself as a systemic asset in the new financial order. Just as gold did in earlier times, Bitcoin may be positioning itself as the mirror of the monetary excesses in the current system.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.