BTC Daily TA Neutral Bullish
BTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% BTC, 47% Cash.
*The December US Employment Situation was released this morning, the Unemployment Rate is back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in November, while 223k Nonfarm Jobs were added (compared to 263k in November) and the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.3% from 62.1% in November. These numbers hardly reflect an economy affected by higher central bank interest rates and will likely spur conversation regarding whether or not to go back to a 75bps rate hike (as opposed to 50bps) come February 1st. The Fed Minutes released yesterday reaffirmed that the Fed is committed to bringing down inflation, they don't see rates cuts in 2023, and that Russia and China both are still major factors of supply chain disruptions which will continue to reverberate through global markets until some resolution is found. In the report, notable changes are significant rises to consumer credit and decreases to commercial real estate construction and investing. December Global Manufacturing PMI released on 01/03 showed an accelerated decrease to 48.6 from 48.8 in November, influenced primarily by lower output from USA, China, Japan and Europe, and is now at a 30-month low. Among the countries which saw an expansion of output production, Russia and India were in the top 5 (BRICS). The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate (01/05) is 3.8%, down from 3.9% on 01/03.
Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, 1-M and 2-M US Treasurys, Energy, Metals, Agriculture (Mixed), EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, NI225 and N100 are up. DXY, US Treasurys, VIX and HSI are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 01/10; US December CPI at 830am EST 01/12; UofM Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am 01/13.*
Price is currently trending up at ~$16800 as it continues to test the 50MA for the tenth consecutive session. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and is on track to favor buyers in five out of the past six sessions; Price continues to trade within the second largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $17600, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI continues to trend sideways at 50 for the third consecutive session as it aims to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from January 2021 at 57 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 97 as it approaches max top. MACD remains bullish for a fifth consecutive session and is currently trending up at -63; the next resistance is at 312 while the next support (minor) is at -232. ADX continues to trend down at 16 and is beginning to form a soft trough as Price continues to trade in range with a short term uptrend, this is bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to break above the 50MA at $16800 and establish short-term support there, the next resistance is the local-high at ~$18600 as resistance before potentially testing $19417 resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at $15800 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $16300.
*The December US Employment Situation was released this morning, the Unemployment Rate is back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in November, while 223k Nonfarm Jobs were added (compared to 263k in November) and the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.3% from 62.1% in November. These numbers hardly reflect an economy affected by higher central bank interest rates and will likely spur conversation regarding whether or not to go back to a 75bps rate hike (as opposed to 50bps) come February 1st. The Fed Minutes released yesterday reaffirmed that the Fed is committed to bringing down inflation, they don't see rates cuts in 2023, and that Russia and China both are still major factors of supply chain disruptions which will continue to reverberate through global markets until some resolution is found. In the report, notable changes are significant rises to consumer credit and decreases to commercial real estate construction and investing. December Global Manufacturing PMI released on 01/03 showed an accelerated decrease to 48.6 from 48.8 in November, influenced primarily by lower output from USA, China, Japan and Europe, and is now at a 30-month low. Among the countries which saw an expansion of output production, Russia and India were in the top 5 (BRICS). The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate (01/05) is 3.8%, down from 3.9% on 01/03.
Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, 1-M and 2-M US Treasurys, Energy, Metals, Agriculture (Mixed), EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, NI225 and N100 are up. DXY, US Treasurys, VIX and HSI are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 01/10; US December CPI at 830am EST 01/12; UofM Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am 01/13.*
Price is currently trending up at ~$16800 as it continues to test the 50MA for the tenth consecutive session. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and is on track to favor buyers in five out of the past six sessions; Price continues to trade within the second largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $17600, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI continues to trend sideways at 50 for the third consecutive session as it aims to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from January 2021 at 57 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 97 as it approaches max top. MACD remains bullish for a fifth consecutive session and is currently trending up at -63; the next resistance is at 312 while the next support (minor) is at -232. ADX continues to trend down at 16 and is beginning to form a soft trough as Price continues to trade in range with a short term uptrend, this is bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to break above the 50MA at $16800 and establish short-term support there, the next resistance is the local-high at ~$18600 as resistance before potentially testing $19417 resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at $15800 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $16300.
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