BTC Rug Pull Setup
Updated
Repost because I meant to link to a TV post and linked to an X post. So my last version will have to be deleted.
BTC is on fire today with an exceptional spike up. I think this is good spot for bulls to be cautious because all of this strong price action has now taking us into the long term resistance levels.
BTC now trades a bit over the 76 fib. I find in most instances when we're in a bull trap it ends somewhere close to the 76 and before the 86.
Usually I find when 86 breaks we retest 76 and this is often a spot I'll go long.
If the 76 rejects, then all of this BTC rally could be one huge bull trap.
In a bearish scenario, this 55K was to be expected. Below is a post from the low. We were down off the 61 fib but I know 61 bear traps usually really top on 76 spikes.
So this spike is something that happens in bear patterns. I know it looks "Unbearish", but these happen in both buy/sell setups. Usually what happens in this area dictates the overall outcome.
Most money is made and lost in markets at a few big key levels. The major SR levels. At these levels the prepared meet the impulsive and money changes hands.
We're now into a major resistance level. If BTC has actually began to downtrend from from the 2021 high we're now into the area where sellers would be expected to come in strongest.
Move usually end in exceptional ways. Things that make it feel impossible to be a bear and have bulls feeling victorious.
One of my golden rules in trading is when you think it's fitting to brag protect your profits instead.
With that though in mind, I present the recent BTC chart.
snapshot
If we make a bull break here, the retest trade could be an excellent long op. But in this little zone we're in now is where this has the max risk of turning into a rug.
BTC is on fire today with an exceptional spike up. I think this is good spot for bulls to be cautious because all of this strong price action has now taking us into the long term resistance levels.
BTC now trades a bit over the 76 fib. I find in most instances when we're in a bull trap it ends somewhere close to the 76 and before the 86.
Usually I find when 86 breaks we retest 76 and this is often a spot I'll go long.
If the 76 rejects, then all of this BTC rally could be one huge bull trap.
In a bearish scenario, this 55K was to be expected. Below is a post from the low. We were down off the 61 fib but I know 61 bear traps usually really top on 76 spikes.
So this spike is something that happens in bear patterns. I know it looks "Unbearish", but these happen in both buy/sell setups. Usually what happens in this area dictates the overall outcome.
Most money is made and lost in markets at a few big key levels. The major SR levels. At these levels the prepared meet the impulsive and money changes hands.
We're now into a major resistance level. If BTC has actually began to downtrend from from the 2021 high we're now into the area where sellers would be expected to come in strongest.
Move usually end in exceptional ways. Things that make it feel impossible to be a bear and have bulls feeling victorious.
One of my golden rules in trading is when you think it's fitting to brag protect your profits instead.
With that though in mind, I present the recent BTC chart.
snapshot
If we make a bull break here, the retest trade could be an excellent long op. But in this little zone we're in now is where this has the max risk of turning into a rug.
Note
Throughout all of the trading history of BTC once there has been a crash it has made a new high and then not traded under the previous crash low. Bullish breakouts have always been followed by bullish extensions. A very impressive trend. Until 2021.
In 2021 it dump 50%. Made a nominally higher high and then broke the low.
This was a first for BTC. The first time it did not hold the structure of an uptrend.
Failure to hold the structure of the uptrend supports the thesis of a bear market rally.
Note
Sizing up shorts now into what would be the head fake area is this is a 76 spike out. Pretty much at the point where this succeeds or fails now. Full review of thesis if stops break. Best odds for short now.
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