The circulation of usable money in the US has changed considerably since the last bull run as a result of FED policies. The amount of usable money in circulation (M2SL), the so-called Monetary BASE 2, has declined since then. Therefore, when considering the BTC/USDT price, you may want to keep this chart in mind (I do).
Looking at the chart, you can see that the BTC/USDT price still hasn't reached the distribution area in the 40-45k range. However, if you look at the BTC/M2SL chart, you can see that this is exactly where it has been mitigated.
If you look at the other BTC/USDT chart I shared, I think you can draw meaningful conclusions.
Note: The red and green arrows on the chart show possible price movements (in my opinion).
The red box is the potential distribution area, and the green box is at least an accumulation zone for a potential reversal.