FTX Post Mortem - Observational Hindsight
Updated
Well well, what a crazy ~10 days it has been. There were many many warnings before the rug pull that FTX ended up being (Marc Cohodes, was ringing the alarm bells for months on end and I was naïve enough to think he may have been wrong).
Anyway, my previous assumptions of the bottom being in were invalidated.
In hindsight, this outcome, which I had considered in the past, eventuated. I did mention in one of my analysis's that a wick down to ~14k region was possible. We didn't quite get that low, but we did wick down on the weekly to close to 15k flat. What interesting to know is the level of confluences here.
Firstly, we had a massive head and shoulder topping pattern. There's a measured move, as you can see, of 50% .. we just dropped 50% from the neckline in totality. Then you have the 50% fib retracement, and a multi-year trend line, all coinciding in the one area.
I do firmly believe that had the FTX debacle not eventuated, we would've seen a nice rally along with stocks this week.
It almost seems like one major PsyOp that FTX came crashing down this week, to give the market one final push down, after a lot of alt coins were breaking out of their downtrends and the DXY / US Dollar breaking down from it's up-trend, signaling that the market was about to turn bullish for risk-on assets.
CPI came in lower than expected, and the broader stock market rallied.
Perhaps this is the 'decoupling' we wished for. Just in the wrong direction.
BTC is still vulnerable to overall macro-economic headwinds and tailwinds, and if this area doesn't hold due to an exogenous event such as another major failure (USDT / USDC implosion, contagion, etc) then all bets are off and we could drop to the next support around 14k.
Otherwise, if none of those eventuate, then from here, I would assume, slow upwards movement, or choppy movement, until around April 2023.
Other interesting observations here.. It's been exactly 1 year since the ATH was formed.
Exactly 2 years since BTC traded out the price level that it corrected to when all of this unfolded.
From here, I would hope we reclaim above 18.5k region soon.
For those who lost significant amounts of money on FTX, I sympathize with you, I too lost quite a bit on there, but was luckily spooked months ago and moved the majority of my funds off.
One concern I have, is that the 50 and 200 Weekly SMA looks like it could cross early in 2023. This would be the first time in Bitcoins history. A reversal in momentum would perhaps prevent this from happening.
Anyway, my previous assumptions of the bottom being in were invalidated.
In hindsight, this outcome, which I had considered in the past, eventuated. I did mention in one of my analysis's that a wick down to ~14k region was possible. We didn't quite get that low, but we did wick down on the weekly to close to 15k flat. What interesting to know is the level of confluences here.
Firstly, we had a massive head and shoulder topping pattern. There's a measured move, as you can see, of 50% .. we just dropped 50% from the neckline in totality. Then you have the 50% fib retracement, and a multi-year trend line, all coinciding in the one area.
I do firmly believe that had the FTX debacle not eventuated, we would've seen a nice rally along with stocks this week.
It almost seems like one major PsyOp that FTX came crashing down this week, to give the market one final push down, after a lot of alt coins were breaking out of their downtrends and the DXY / US Dollar breaking down from it's up-trend, signaling that the market was about to turn bullish for risk-on assets.
CPI came in lower than expected, and the broader stock market rallied.
Perhaps this is the 'decoupling' we wished for. Just in the wrong direction.
BTC is still vulnerable to overall macro-economic headwinds and tailwinds, and if this area doesn't hold due to an exogenous event such as another major failure (USDT / USDC implosion, contagion, etc) then all bets are off and we could drop to the next support around 14k.
Otherwise, if none of those eventuate, then from here, I would assume, slow upwards movement, or choppy movement, until around April 2023.
Other interesting observations here.. It's been exactly 1 year since the ATH was formed.
Exactly 2 years since BTC traded out the price level that it corrected to when all of this unfolded.
From here, I would hope we reclaim above 18.5k region soon.
For those who lost significant amounts of money on FTX, I sympathize with you, I too lost quite a bit on there, but was luckily spooked months ago and moved the majority of my funds off.
One concern I have, is that the 50 and 200 Weekly SMA looks like it could cross early in 2023. This would be the first time in Bitcoins history. A reversal in momentum would perhaps prevent this from happening.
Note
Still respecting diag trend..Note
The amount of confluence in this chart really did cement the bottom was in.
*Not Financial Advice*
*Only Risk What You Can Afford To Lose*
*Just Ideas, Not Investment Advice*
*Trade At Your Own Risk*
*Only Risk What You Can Afford To Lose*
*Just Ideas, Not Investment Advice*
*Trade At Your Own Risk*
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