Technicals
Institutions are dominating the market atm so CME gaps are being respected and we now have two bullish gaps open.
Friday 7th we closed at $86.4k and then Friday 14th and $84.4k and with the volatility we'll get from the rate decision this week I expect both of these will get filled relatively soon.
We have a potential incoming 'mini death cross' (I would usually consider the 50MA crossing below the 200MA a 'full' death cross, and tbh I would usually consider this set up to be more of a bottom indicator than a downtrend indicator) with the 20 Day Moving Average about to break below the 200 Day Moving Average. This will confirm a down trend and probably trigger alot of algos to sell.
Filling the CME gaps might be enough to pull price up and avert the 'mini death cross' but it is inevitable that we get a mini death cross if we don't get price back above the 200 Day Moving Average.
If we can't close a daily candle today above the 200MA (currently at $85.6k) then I think a short to $78.5k (local support) is likely as this now looks like the bottom of our current range.
If we do close above the 200MA and close the CME gaps in the process I would long to the resistance zone at $89.3k - $91.4k.
Macro
The big market mover this week is the rate decision dropping on Wednesday at 6pm (GMT).
Interest rates are nailed on to come in at 4.25%-4.5% with only a 1% chance that we get a cut.
We will get volatility going into the announcement (we always do) but I have a sneaking suspicion we get a bounce coming out of the rate pause as the recent data is bullish.
Recession is openly being discussed, the job market is weakening at the same time as inflation is coming down so its logical to assume that the FED will take a dovish tone in the post announcement comments.
Institutions are dominating the market atm so CME gaps are being respected and we now have two bullish gaps open.
Friday 7th we closed at $86.4k and then Friday 14th and $84.4k and with the volatility we'll get from the rate decision this week I expect both of these will get filled relatively soon.
We have a potential incoming 'mini death cross' (I would usually consider the 50MA crossing below the 200MA a 'full' death cross, and tbh I would usually consider this set up to be more of a bottom indicator than a downtrend indicator) with the 20 Day Moving Average about to break below the 200 Day Moving Average. This will confirm a down trend and probably trigger alot of algos to sell.
Filling the CME gaps might be enough to pull price up and avert the 'mini death cross' but it is inevitable that we get a mini death cross if we don't get price back above the 200 Day Moving Average.
If we can't close a daily candle today above the 200MA (currently at $85.6k) then I think a short to $78.5k (local support) is likely as this now looks like the bottom of our current range.
If we do close above the 200MA and close the CME gaps in the process I would long to the resistance zone at $89.3k - $91.4k.
Macro
The big market mover this week is the rate decision dropping on Wednesday at 6pm (GMT).
Interest rates are nailed on to come in at 4.25%-4.5% with only a 1% chance that we get a cut.
We will get volatility going into the announcement (we always do) but I have a sneaking suspicion we get a bounce coming out of the rate pause as the recent data is bullish.
Recession is openly being discussed, the job market is weakening at the same time as inflation is coming down so its logical to assume that the FED will take a dovish tone in the post announcement comments.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.